The New England Patriots are venturing into the unknown in 2020. After a 19 year run, the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era, which included six Super Bowl championships and 14 AFC Championship Game appearances, came to a close this March. Brady signed a two-year contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leaving a titanic void at the quarterback position. Following months of uncertainty as to who would be the Patriots quarterback this season (with talk of the unproven Jarrett Stidham or longtime backup Brian Hoyer sliding into the position), the Patriots signed free agent quarterback Cam Newton in late June. Newton, the 2015 MVP and a three-time Pro Bowler found himself out of a job at that juncture for a variety of reasons (including health question marks), and the Patriots weren’t sold on their options at quarterback, leading to a marriage between the two sides.
OFFENSE
Offensively, the Patriots personnel is a mixed bag. They have a solid running back group. Atop the depth chart is Sony Michel, a third-year running back from Georgia. He missed part of training camp recovering from foot surgery and is coming off a down season (in part due to offensive line injuries) last year. However, he was an integral component in their Super Bowl run as a rookie in 2018. Michel could very well return to form with the return of center David Andrews (who missed last season with blood clots) and the addition of Cam Newton, a prolific runner himself. If the Patriots incorporate option plays into their offense (a staple of Newton’s offense with the Carolina Panthers), Newton can take pressure off Michel, because linebackers and even safeties will have to freeze because they don’t know if a run or pass is coming. Behind him is James White, a prolific weapon in the passing game, who can run between the tackles if need be. Additional options include Rex Burkhead, a versatile back who can run and catch, and 2019 third round pick Damien Harris. Harris played sparingly last year, but the Alabama product displayed good elusiveness and power in college.
The Patriots passing game is extremely limited in terms of weapons, however. The Patriots best wide receiver is Julian Edelman, a steady, reliable player for the Patriots since 2013. Beyond him, however, there are uncertainties galore. The Patriots released veteran Mohamed Sanu at the end of training camp, despite sending a second round pick to the Atlanta Falcons midseason to acquire him last year. His departure puts more pressure on 2019 first round pick N’Keal Harry, who had a quiet, injury plagued rookie season. After those two receivers, the Patriots are hoping to get contributions from unproven players such as Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olszewski. The tight end position is in flux as well. Ryan Izzo is listed with the first string offense, but he caught a mere six passes last season. The Patriots drafted two tight ends this year in Devin Asiasi (UCLA) and Dalton Keene (Virginia Tech), both third round picks. Those players were productive in college, but growing pains should be expected due to their lack of experience so far.
DEFENSE
The Patriots defense should be the strength of their team, though there is a degree of uncertainty in that unit. Up front, the Patriots have a good defensive line, with stout defensive tackles in Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler. Additionally, the Patriots have good pass rushers in defensive ends John Simon and Deatrich Wise Jr. The linebacking core took some big hits, though, in the offseason. In March, the Patriots lost versatile linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins in free agency (to the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions respectively). In July, Dont’a Hightower, a three-time Super Bowl champion and defensive lynchpin, opted out of this season due to the coronavirus pandemic. Into the void steps middle linebacker Ja’whaun Bentley along with Shilique Calhoun and Brandon Copeland, a free agent imported from the New York Jets. Additional contributions will likely come from promising pass rushers Chase Winovich (5.5 sacks last season as a rookie) and speedy rookie Josh Uche (each of whom may flip flop between defensive end and outside linebacker).
The secondary is the most dominant component of the Patriots defense (and their entire roster for that matter). It is a group that is both talented and deep, starting with cornerback Stephon Gilmore, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and a two-time All-Pro. Fellow cornerbacks include 12th-year veteran Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson (8 interceptions in 2 seasons) and Jonathan Jones, a solid nickel corner. Free safety Devin McCourty is a team captain and has started 155 games since he was drafted in 2010. The Patriots lost tenacious strong safety Patrick Chung as a Covid* opt-out. Terrence Brooks (who played well in spot duty last season) and former Los Angeles Chargers safety Adrian Phillips (a hard hitter who has played some linebacker as well) will likely pick up most of the slack in terms of Chung’s departure. Finally, the Patriots drafted safety Kyle Dugger in the second round this year, and 2019 second round pick Joejuan Williams is in the mix to move from corner to safety for good measure.
FORECAST
The Patriots, despite the addition of Cam Newton, remain a team that is average in terms of talent on their roster (with more weight given to the defensive side of the football). Bill Belichick is a future hall of fame coach who can squeeze every ounce of juice he can out of the personnel at his disposal. However, the Patriots have an extremely difficult schedule (including games against the mighty 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens, and Chiefs). Coupled with an ascending division rival in the Buffalo Bills, I believe the Patriots will finish this season with an 8-8 record, just short of the playoffs.
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