The Bird’s Nest: QB Breakdown

Does it smell like fantasy season yet? Well, it should. In just about a month, drafts will be well and truly underway. I know that sounds absolutely nuts but time flies when you are having fun, as the old adage goes. For the next two weeks, the Bird’s Nest will be breaking down the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions, in fantasy football. For each column, there will be sleeper, breakout, and busts predictions attached to my full positional rankings which can be found in the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on FantasyPros. 

It is quarterback day in the Nest. One of the biggest questions I am asked as a fantasy analyst is how to properly draft at the quarterback position, and whether it is worth it to go big at the position. Well, let’s have a look at the top ten from a year ago and where they were drafted. Average Draft Position (ADP) provided by Fantasy Football Calculator. 

1. Josh Allen (BUF) – 417.7 points // Pick 3.10
2. Justin Herbert (LAC) – 395.6 points // Pick 6.09
3. Tom Brady (TB) – 386.7 points // Pick 7.06
4. Patrick Mahomes II (KC) – 374.2 points // Pick 2.11
5. Matthew Stafford (LAR) – 346.8 points // Pick 8.01
6. Aaron Rodgers (GB) – 336.3 points // Pick 5.11
7. Dak Prescott (DAL) – 330.4 points // Pick 6.07
8. Joe Burrow (CIN) – 328.1 points // PIck 10.04
9. Jalen Hurts (PHI) – 321.2 points // Pick 9.04 
10.  Kyler Murray (ARI) – 310.5 points // Pick 4.05 

Looking at the top 3 selections at the position last year, Mahomes, Allen, and Murray, all finished within the top 10. However, because they finished in the top 10 doesn’t mean that they were worthwhile. Of course, Josh Allen was a homerun pick at 3.10, finishing 22.1 points higher than the QB2 Justin Herbert. Patrick Mahomes did not live up to his 2nd round price tag, finishing as the QB4 behind Herbert and Tom Brady who were selected 4 and 5 rounds later than he was respectively. In 14 games played, Kyler Murray was still able to record a top 10 finish at the position while being 4th in fantasy points per game with 22.18. Yet was that enough to make spending a 4th round pick on Murray worth it for drafters?

When reviewing championship rosters from a year ago, 15% share of all teams that won a championship rostered and started Josh Allen. That is more than any other player at the position, and nine percentage points short of being the most frequently rostered player on championship rosters (Amon-Ra St. Brown led in that department with 23% share). 

For years, I have been on the train to draft quarterbacks late in order to get the best value possible. While I am still very much on that train, I do see a shift in that philosophy coming given the dominance of the top tier signal callers. Where the biggest shift comes is with quarterbacks that are mobile and can make players with their legs. It is simple, if your quarterback can be a high volume passer while also being able to accumulate points on the ground, you not only have yourself a higher statistical floor play every week but an even greater statistical ceiling play. These options consist of Allen, Mahomes, Murray, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Trey Lance, to name a few. The smart play could be to draft one from this group and pair them up with low-cost, reliable, steady pocket passer, i.e. Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, or Aaron Rodgers. 

Where I place my flag on the quarterback debate simply falls on value. For example, Josh Allen is being selected at 23rd overall according to FFC. If Allen were to fall to 30-35th overall, I would happily take him at that price. Allen is my 31st overall player, and my QB1 by leaps and bounds. As a fantasy manager, you can never rule anybody out completely. Funny things tend to happen in drafts, and if there is a player that you didn’t rule as a possibility to get to you but does, you have to take him if he is deemed a value. 

Now that we are done looking back, let’s look forward with my quarterback positional ranks for the 2022 fantasy season (*subject to change*): 

Sleeper: Jameis Winston (New Orleans Saints)

During his last full season as a full-time starter in 2019, Winston led the league in passing yards with 30+ touchdown passes. The problem for Winston and his fantasy managers in 2019 though were the alarming INTs, throwing 30 (!) of them. Before an ACL injury that prematurely ended his season in 2021, Winston averaged 17.5 points per game as starter for a New Orleans team that had zero weapons in the passing game not named Alvin Kamara, who averaged 4.0 catches per contest in 2021 with Winston at the helm. 

Not only is Winston back ready to go in 2022, the Saints have given Winston a wide array of weapons. Kamara will be back, pending a ruling on an incident that occurred during Pro Bowl Weekend, Chris Olave was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, Jarvis Landry was signed to a one-year deal, and Michael Thomas is expected to return. With a better core around Winston, he should be able to put up pretty respectable numbers on a Saints team that has playoff aspirations. 

Winston is being selected in the middle of round 14 at this moment in time, and that is simply ludicrous. I love that price for someone we know is going to air it out downfield. What also adds fuel to the pro-Winston camp’s fire is a stunning TD:INT ratio from a year ago. In seven games, Winston threw 14 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. That is simply immaculate, and if Winston can repeat that pace again he is bound to be a steal in drafts. Winston is the QB21 in ECR, and my QB18. I genuinely believe Winston has top 12 upside at the position for 2022.

Breakout: Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers)

A boring take for any who has been doing research early. Those people have probably seen this one a million times already, but it is hard to ignore the breakout potential of the young 49ers quarterback. First thing is first however, he must win the job to start the season or hope it is awarded to him via a Jimmy Garoppolo trade at some point in the next month or so. That makes assessing his stock pretty tricky given most experts, myself included, are projecting him to be the starter week 1. 

In limited action in 2021, Lance was pretty underwhelming as a passer. He did not top 250 yards passing in the two games he started, yet made his money as a rusher. Lance averaged 12 carries for 60 yards in his two starts in 2021, showing the dual-threat ability fantasy managers are salivating for in their quarterbacks. While Lance will have his up and down moments, the steady rushing should present him with a very nice floor for his fantasy managers. 

Lance also is afforded the opportunity to work with one of the best offensive minds in the game, his head coach Kyle Shanahan. I am expecting Shanahan to get the best out of Lance, not only does his team’s success depend on it but his job might as well. You will not find a more trendy pick in leagues this year than Lance, and rightfully so given the situation he now finds himself in with the 49ers. The passing game is littered with talent in Deebo Samuel (pending he shows up and resolves his contract), Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and even the running game in Elijah Mitchell is very steady and will take the weight off of Lance’s young shoulders. 

The general public are riding the Lance train hard, with a back of round 9 price tag in drafts right now. That is a fine price to pay for the potential Lance brings to the table, but you would then need someone steady behind him in case Lance isn’t starting right away. Kirk Cousins is being drafted right after Lance, along with Matt Ryan and even Mac Jones who is going incredibly late. I would absolutely be comfortable pairing any of those three passers with Lance, my and the consensus’ QB13. 

Bust: Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

Hold on. Before you go away and tell all of your friends that I am saying Joe Burrow, AFC Champion quarterback and reigning Comeback Player of the Year Joe Burrow, is a bust let me explain my position. I think Burrow is going to be fine, in fact I think Burrow is going to have himself a very solid season. I am projecting Burrow for over 4000 yards passing with 30 touchdowns, which is a stunning season by every stretch of the imagination. So why is he a bust?

Well, Burrow is slated to face the 3rd toughest schedule for quarterbacks this upcoming season. When looking at his own division, Burrow has himself 6 really difficult games against top notch defensive units in Cleveland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. That is before facing Tampa, New Orleans, New England, and Buffalo. That is 10 of Burrows 17 games that are really difficult on the eye. 

Now factor in where Burrow is being selected. Burrow is being taken as the QB4 right now, and I am sorry but why. I get that the Bengals are a hot offense and everyone wants a piece of them, but at the price of being the QB4 when you can have Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, or any other QB you want not with the last names of Allen, Mahomes, or Herbert. I would much, much, much, rather have the field over Burrow. 

Last year’s numbers show an alarming statistical flaw in properly assessing Burrow. The Cincy signal-caller led the NFL a year ago in yards per pass attempt with 8.9, with a 6.5% touchdown rate. To put this into perspective, Deshuan Watson is the active leader in this category with 8.3, and only he and Patrick Mahomes average more than 7.8 yards per pass attempt out of the active quarterbacks for their careers. Mahomes is also the active leader in touchdown rate, with a 6.4% TD rate. 

Say Burrow regresses back to his mean for both of those numbers in 2022. It is going to require an almost herculean effort for Burrow to even come close for him to match, if not better, his 2021 numbers. If both his YPA and TD rate numbers do come down, Burrow would need somewhere in the range of 38-42 pass attempts per game over a 17 game season to match what he did a year ago. I can’t buy in at his current price, as Burrow comes in as my QB9 and the consensus’ QB7.