It’s less than a month from the NBA Draft, and nobody knows anything.
Of course, that’s somewhat of an exaggeration. Although the class is lacking a Zion-esque “can’t miss” star, the narrative that it is a forgettable group of players couldn’t be farther from the truth. If anything, the overall quality is quite strong, making for some tough decisions between players with similar talent levels that have most analysts unsure of where the dominos might fall
Front offices across the association will be tasked with sifting through a wide array of prospects, with fit and need weighing in as always. The past few weeks, nay months, have had a slew of different ballers positioned just about everywhere in the draft, creating uncertainty amongst both fans and teams. One thing is for certain: get ready to be shocked come November 18th.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Deni Avdija – Forward, Maccabi Tel Aviv)
A big shocker to kick things off, as Minnesota goes for upside with the talented youngster from Israel. The T-Wolves are in as interesting a spot as any recent top-spot team. Last time we had this many questions, the Cavaliers did the unthinkable. However, this forward should work out much better than it did for Cleveland.
Avdija is a big-time playmaker, possessing an impressive basketball IQ to compliment a lanky 6’8, 210 pound frame. He won’t be dropping thirty a night, but that shouldn’t be a problem with scorers like D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns already in the fold. The consensus ‘big three’ prospects simply make less sense for Minnesota based on fit, and recent comments from head of basketball operations Gerson Rosas lend more credence to the possibility that the Wolves do something nobody sees coming. While this is admittedly less likely to occur than an Edwards or LaMelo pick, it would be fascinating to see how Avdija would mesh with Minnesota’s two stars.
2. Golden State Warriors: James Wiseman – Center, Memphis
The rich got richer once it was announced that Golden State would receive the second overall pick. While many think that the team may trade out of the spot for more NBA-ready talent, the chance to grab a cheap star on a team that is loaded with massive contracts is too good for Bob Myers to pass up. Wiseman is the pick, filling a need for an athletic rim-stopper that the club has been looking for.
Like Minnesota, a player such as LaMelo Ball doesn’t make sense with Steph Curry running the point, and Anthony Edwards’ poor shooting in college may scare the perimeter-oriented team away. Although the club is famous for their small-ball style of play, Wiseman has a nice shooting touch which should compliment the team nicely. Whether they use him as a super-sub or a starter, Wiseman can give Golden State a potent weapon for their 2021 comeback tour.
3. Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball – Guard, NBL Hawks
The draft’s biggest enigma finally finds a home. Projected by many as a potential superstar, the youngest Ball brother may be the best; he has elite passing vision, smooth handles, and height (6’7) to match. Although Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier had nice seasons, Charlotte needs to think big here. Years of mediocrity and poor spending have led to unremarkable finishes.
Adding LaMelo brings a spark to a franchise that has badly needed one. In addition, the team could even experiment with three-guard sets, as Ball’s aforementioned height gives him some added flexibility in today’s positionless game. The big issue may be shooting, but its still a nice problem to have with three capable playmakers on the court together. Once their bad contracts are off the books, the Hornets could make some serious noise in the East with LaMelo in the fold.
4. Chicago Bulls: Anthony Edwards – Forward, Georgia
Chicago sprints to the podium in order to reel in Edwards, who averaged 19 points per game as a Georgia freshman. The former Bulldog is an incredibly athletic wing who can take over a game at any given moment, but his shooting in college came more from volume than efficiency. A 29% three-point mark may worry some teams, but he certainly wouldn’t be the first player to develop better range later in their careers.
It would be seen as a steal by most fans if Edwards fell to this spot (but it’s trending that way), as he may be the draft’s consensus top-pick among mock experts. The Bulls already have offensive firepower (Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Coby White) and it would behoove them to search for an elite defender. However, at this point in the draft, any D-oriented players would be a reach compared to the immense talent of Edwards. At just 19 years of age, the sky could be the limit, but the risk is also real.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Onyeka Okongwu – Forward/Center, Southern Cal
The Cavs were this close to landing Edwards, but Okongwu isn’t a shabby consolation prize. The high-flying bigman fills a direct need down low for Cleveland, who has invested most of their recent draft capital towards their guard play. Now, a potentially potent pick-and-roll game with Darius Garland and Colin Sexton could open up an offense that looked stagnant last year.
Onyeka is not just a talented rim-runner; he has a solid post game and a soft touch inside the paint. His defensive play is steady, with an abundance of athleticism that prevents him from being a liability on switches. Cleveland will also benefit from his blocking prowess, since the club finished last in that category in 2019. While his shooting is not there yet, the USC alum has clear potential. In a draft full of questions, where the 6’9 Okongwu lands will be one of the most intriguing come November 18th.
6. Atlanta Hawks: Devin Vassell – Guard/Forward, Florida State
On paper, the Atlanta Hawks should be better than their 20-57 record. Trae Young played like a superstar last season (on offense), John Collins is a talented forward, and secondary pieces such as Kevin Huerter and DeAndre Hunter show promise.
However, the team’s defense was absolutely porous, ranking last in the league in opposing points per game. While a player like Isaac Okoro could be a nice fit here, his poor shooting doesn’t exactly fit Atlanta’s style of play. Instead, the club opts to go with the draft’s best three-and-D specialist, Devin Vassell. Vassell is a versatile player who can play the two or slot in as a forward with his 6’7 height. While improving Atlanta’s defense is the team’s biggest need, the Seminole’s shooting prowess is also exceptional, averaging .417% on shooting behind the arc. Giving Young and the youthful Hawks a sniper on the wings could further bolster a skilled core. In reality, this is a prime spot for a draft day deal. Atlanta wants a proven player to help make a playoff push, and there are a number of teams who would happily oblige them by trading up for pick number six.
7. Detroit Pistons: Killian Hayes – Guard, ULM
Killian Hayes may be the most polarizing prospect in the class, with mocks putting him anywhere from a top-three pick to fourteenth. Here, the young Frenchman lands in the middle of the lottery with Detroit, a club starving for playmakers.
As well as Derrick Rose played last year, he is not the future at point guard in the Motor City. Hayes has solid build (6’5,) and nice court vision, but it must be noted that he has struggled at times overseas, notably with his three-point shooting. Detroit is far from contention with or without the nineteen year old point guard. Giving him time to develop as the top ball handler, and learning from a former MVP such as Rose, could do wonders for his development. In addition, there is plenty of evidence that the pairing makes sense for Killian as well; Hayes went on record saying he would love to play with fellow countryman Sekou Doumbouya. One thing to note: Detroit could think about trading up here for the services of LaMelo Ball.
8. New York Knicks: Isaac Okoro – Forward, Auburn
The Knicks have a wide array of holes on their roster. Issac Okoro is the most versatile player in the draft class. Here, New York, under the control of defensive-minded coach Tom Thibedeau, goes for a guy who immediately brings talent, excitement and hustle to MSG.
Okoro, at just nineteen years of age, offers up some nice upside. The Auburn freshman also plays exceptional defense and can play just about anywhere on the floor. Whether they decide to trade him or not, New York can’t assume forward Kevin Knox will reach his potential after two disappointing seasons. While the allure of a solid ball-handler may prove too strong to resist, the club’s other first round pick (27) will give them a chance to address the need later on. Okoro will have to improve his shooting (28.6 % on three-pointers), but he can give the Knicks a hard-working, smart player that fans will love from day one. Even he thinks so.
9. Washington Wizards: Obi Toppin – Forward/Center, Dayton
Toppin was electrifying last season for the Dayton Flyers, winning the Naismith Award as the nation’s top player. He may have the most NBA-ready offensive game in the draft class, combining physicality in the paint with a solid three-point shot to stretch out defenses. Bad defense will likely prevent him from being a top-five pick, but Toppin’s offense can play right away.
The Wizards are similar to the Hornets in that they are stuck in a cycle of perpetual mediocrity. John Wall returns and Bradley Beal still wants to stay, but a third star is needed for this team to be anything better than a first-round exit. Toppin, while possibly undersized at the five, gives Washington an inside presence that has not been present during the Wall-Beal era. It’s a bold move, but Washington is in a position where they need to start competing in order to make sure Beal sticks around.
10. Phoenix Suns: Tyrese Haliburton – Guard, Iowa State
The Suns get a steal with the basketball-savvy Haliburton at number ten. Despite yet another losing record, the team is close to playoff contention, and really needs a point guard to help distribute and take pressure off of Devin Booker. Haliburton is a ‘winner’, along with a number of other scout-talk terms that writers love to throw around before draft day. However, beneath the superlatives lies an incredibly gifted passer who can do everything well (15.1 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.9 RBPG last season).
The reason Haliburton may fall on draft night is that clubs will be wary of his unorthodox shooting motion. Yet, the former Cyclone went over forty percent from three-point range last season. On the Suns, he won’t have to carry the team, and can improve the game of everyone around him. With 30-year old Ricky Rubio’s deal to expire soon, Haliburton fills a major need for Phoenix.
11. San Antonio Spurs: Patrick Williams – Forward, Florida State
It seems like just about everyone sees San Antonio taking this lanky forward with the eleventh pick. The reason? Because it makes so much sense. Williams is not a sure thing by any means; the Seminole needs to refine his game, especially on the offensive end of the court. However, he is capable at most things already, from driving to spot-up shooting, and is a solid defender who knows his role well. The concerns shouldn’t be brushed off; his playmaking was solid in college but often overshadowed by a bad penchant for turning the ball over.
At just under nineteen years of age, there is plenty of time for Williams to improve his decision-making and jump shot, along with the additional experience that will boost his defensive awareness. San Antonio can go a number of directions here, but the club is a long way off from title contention. Late in the lottery, they should be prioritizing potential over immediate impact. If anyone can get the best out of this forward, it’s Greg Popovich’s excellent Spurs coaching staff.
12. Sacramento Kings: Kira Lewis Jr. – Guard, Alabama
The Kings are elated as Lewis Jr. falls to them at twelve. The Crimson Tide guard has elite quickness, capable of slashing through opposing defenses a la DeAron Fox. In addition, he is more than capable shooting from deep, shooting 36.2% from three over two seasons in Tuscaloosa. However, he needs work on finishing at the rim and overall passing IQ. NBA weight rooms and in-game experience should benefit him greatly in this regard.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Sacramento adding a player who is very similar to their current franchise point guard. However, today’s association is positionless, and a Fox-Lewis Jr. tandem could instantly become the game’s fastest backcourt. The Kings could play an up-tempo brand of basketball with the addition of a second capable ball handler, something the club doesn’t have right now with Buddy Heild and Bogan Bogdanavich better served as off-ball players. Even if his ceiling is only that of a solid role player, Lewis Jr. coming off the bench will keep defenses exhausted even when Fox needs to take a breather.
13. New Orleans Pelicans: Precious Achiuwa – Forward/Center, Memphis
There may not be a team in basketball with a brighter future than New Orleans. They have a star in Zion Williamson, a worthy #2 in Brandon Ingram, and a talented facilitator in Lonzo Ball. What the team should now look for is a tough, gritty player capable of doing the little things that help a team gel. Luckily for the Pels, Precious Achiuwa fills this role nicely. A freshman standout for Penny Hardaway’s Memphis squad, Achiuwa has come a long way in his journey to the NBA.
While Jaxson Hayes has potential at center, Achiuwa is a player who can fill in anywhere on the front court, the kind of versatility teams need to compete. His high-motor, stellar rebounding and pick-and-roll prowess should also create more opportunities in transition for a potentially explosive offensive attack. Achiuwa is no finished product; he is a poor shooter right now and can also give the ball away in bunches. On the Pelicans, he won’t be handling the ball too often, nor will he be asked to shoot from deep. The team just needs him to play hard and do the dirty work so Zion doesn’t have to.
14. Boston Celtics (via Memphis Grizzlies): Aaron Nesmith – Forward, Vanderbilt
In all likelihood, Boston will be looking to package their three first round picks, whether it’s for a veteran or a higher-profile prospect that can help them from day one. However, without projecting any deals in this mock, the C’s have a number of intriguing options to close out the lottery, including the high upside of R.J. Hampton or the sharpshooting of Saddiq Bey. Instead, Boston goes with Aaron Nesmith, owner of one of the draft’s best jumpers.
Despite his season-ending injury last season at Vanderbilt, Nesmith’s offensive prowess is undeniable, shooting 52% (51% from three) and scoring 23 points per game last season. While those numbers would have likely gone down over a full year (played fourteen games), this is an instant-impact type player who can aid a team seeking a title. With Gordon Hayward aging and unreliable health-wise, grabbing a capable wing to spell Jayson Tatum and Jaylon Brown is a smart move for Danny Ainge, who has done his homework. If Nesmith doesn’t pan out, Boston still has two more first round picks to strike gold.
- Orlando Magic: Saddiq Bey – Guard/Forward, Villanova
- Portland Trail Blazers: Tyler Bey – Forward, Colorado
- Minnesota Timberwolves (via Brooklyn Nets): R.J. Hampton – Guard, New Zealand
- Dallas Mavericks: Jalen Smith – Forward/Center, Maryland
- Brooklyn Nets (via Philadelphia 76ers): Desmond Bane – Guard, TCU
- Miami Heat: Tyrell Terry – Guard, Stanford
- Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder): Cole Anthony – Guard, North Carolina
- Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets): Aleksej Pokuševski – Forward/Center, Serbia
- Utah Jazz: Malachi Flynn – Guard, San Diego State
- Milwaukee Bucks (via Indiana Pacers): Josh Green – Guard/Forward, Arizona
- Oklahoma City Thunder (via Denver Nuggets): Isaiah Stewart – Forward/Center, Washington
- Boston Celtics: Tre Jones – Guard, Duke
- New York Knicks (via Los Angeles Clippers): Nico Mannion – Guard, Arizona
- Los Angeles Lakers: Zeke Nnaji – Center, Arizona
- Toronto Raptors: Theo Maledon – Guard, France
- Boston Celtics (via Milwaukee Bucks): Jaden McDaniels – Forward, Washington
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