The narrative that Major League Baseball is dying is something that I cannot disagree on more. There hasn’t been a period of time that I can recall where there was this much young talent throughout the game. Players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna, and Juan Soto, and many more have shown that today’s prospects can step in at a young age and make a significant impact for their clubs. The race for rookie of the year in both the American and National Leagues will be interesting to follow all season long, as these immensely talented prospects make their debuts. I will be focusing on three potential candidates in the American League that are flying under the radar. For this instance, I considered a dark horse candidate to be a player that is listed outside the top 7 in odds to win the award. Current betting odds of the favorites are listed below courtesy of Vegas Insider.
OF Randy Arozarena (TB): +400
OF Jarred Kelenic (SEA): +800
SS Wander Franco (TB): +1000
1B Ryan Mountcastle (BAL): +1200
C Adley Rutschman (BAL): +1200
RHP Triston McKenzie (CLE): +1500
RHP Casey Mize (DET): +1500
RHP Nate Pearson (TOR): +1500
1 2B Nick Madrigal (Chicago White Sox): +1800
Nick Madrigal maintains his rookie status, despite appearing in 29 games for the White Sox last season. In his cup of coffee in the big leagues, the former 4th overall draft pick did not disappoint. In his 129 plate appearances in 2020, Madrigal hit .340 with an OBP of .376 and a wRC+ of 112. The statistic that stood out to me when looking at Madrigal was an impressively low strikeout rate of just 6.4%. That number is likely unsustainable through a full major league season, but it does show Madrigal’s ability to make consistent contact. However, he also needs to improve at drawing more walks with his measly 3.7% BB rate. In a loaded Chicago White Sox lineup, Madrigal should see a ton of fastballs in which he feasted on in 2020. According to Baseball Savant, on fastballs, Madrigal had a .433 average and a .483 SLG with only a 7.5 whiff%. To go along with the success he had at the plate. Madrigal was stellar in the field, ranking in the 82% percentile in terms of outs above average.
2 RHP Luis Patino (Tampa Bay Rays): +1800
I have the prize of the return in the Blake Snell trade coming in as my 2nd dark horse ROY candidate. Since being acquired in the late December blockbuster deal, Patino immediately finds himself as the #2 ranked prospect in a strong Tampa Bay farm system. On the 20-80 grading scale via MLB Pipeline, Patino possesses a 70 fastball with a 60 slider and 55 changeup. He did give up 10 earned runs in his brief stint of 17.1 innings with the Padres in 2020, but his Statcast numbers suggest that the 21-year-old was actually much better than that. Patino ranked 76% in hard hit%, 74% in xSLG (Expected Slugging %), 89% in xBA (Expected Batting Average), 61% in barrel %, 89% in fastball spin, and 93% in fastball velocity. I believe these metrics are more indicative of the type of talent Patino is capable of being at the Major League level. There is a possibility due to service time implications that Patino does not start the season with the Rays, but I don’t see how they can keep him in the minors for too long. I expect Patino to be a key cog in the Tampa Bay rotation by May, which still gives him plenty of time to enter the ROY race.
3 1B Bobby Dalbec (Boston Red Sox): +2000
We may be looking at the next Red Sox’s slugger in Bobby Dalbec. With Dalbec turning 26 in June, he is already much more developed compared to other rookies in the American League. Boston called up Dalbec in late August, and in 23 games, he absolutely mashed. 8 home runs in 80 at-bats, slugging an exact .600 with an isolated power of .338 and a wRC+ of 152. I cannot say enough about how impressed I was with Dalbec’s showing 2020. Now it will not come easy for the first baseman in 2021, as pitchers now have the book on him. If Dalbec even sniffs some of the numbers he put up in 2020, he will be a legit contender for the award. I really like this as a sneaky value pick; assuming he can make the proper adjustments when pitchers start to figure him out more.
For more MLB coverage, click here.
Statistics via fangraphs.com and baseballsavant.mlb.com
