Now that the 2021 offseason is complete, let’s take a brief look at the 2022 class of free agents; specifically the shortstops. The talented group that will test the market next winter is headlined by Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez. These guys are going to command top dollar due to playing such a premier position in the game today. The one I am going to focus on is Lindor; because it is likely that he may not even get to the free agency window.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported early Monday morning that the extension talks are set to begin at some point this week between Lindor and the New York Mets. New York acquired the platinum glove-winning shortstop in early January in a trade from the Cleveland Indians. Lindor is recognized as one of the best two-way players in baseball, and since he is only 27 years old, he is in-line for a huge contract whether it be from the Mets or someone else.
Since the start of the 2018 season, Francisco Lindor has the highest WAR among active shortstops. He also ranks in the top 5 in nearly every major offensive and defensive metric. 2020 was Lindor’s first true down year at the plate, as he posted career lows in wRC+, SLG, and WOBA. His OPS+ would suggest that he was still 2% above league average, but Lindor has shown us in years past of his elite bat from both sides of the dish that we expect more. In the field, he is absolutely stellar; ranking near the top in DRS, UZR, and OAA among SS. If Andrelton Simmons did not exist, he might have an extra two gold gloves. Lindor is a generational talent that will be paid accordingly, but how much will he get?
There are three comparable contracts in the league that come to mind when projecting Lindor’s new deal. The first one is the 13-year $330 million contract the Philadelphia Phillies gave to Bryce Harper prior to the 2019 season. This was a very unique contract structure at the time, and something similar to this may be of interest to the Lindor camp. The AAV is relatively low for this caliber of player, but the super long-term commitment is there if that is what Lindor is looking for. This would take Lindor all the way up to age 40, which is something I do not see the Mets getting involved in.
In the same offseason that Harper signed, Manny Machado agreed to a 10-year deal worth $300 million from the San Diego Padres. Like Lindor, Machado was directly in the middle of his prime at age 26 when he signed this deal which is a significant reason as to why he got 300 million dollars. While I do think a contract of this length would make much more sense for the Mets than the Harper deal, Lindor most likely feels he is worth upwards of $300 million due to the positional value of a shortstop.
Machado’s teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. will be the third and final contract we will examine. San Diego broke the bank once again and gave the 22-year-old a massive 14 year $340 million contract. Unlike Harper and Machado, Tatis is a shortstop, which makes his contract evident in comparison with Lindor. But it is very important to note that Tatis is five years younger than Lindor, so again the 14 years is not realistic. If I had to guess, I would say the magic number for Lindor is higher than $340 million in order to be the highest-paid shortstop. Steve Cohen and the Mets should have no problem giving their franchise shortstop that kind of money, but with a smaller amount of years.
At the end of the day, you do not make the trade for Francisco Lindor if you don’t plan on giving him an extension. The Mets are expected to compete in 2021, and Francisco Lindor will be a huge factor in how far that team goes in the National League. Similarly to the Mookie Betts contract with the Dodgers prior to the 2020 shortened season, I believe Lindor will sign an extension with the Mets before he even plays a regular-season game for them. An 11-year $350 million deal is my prediction for what Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets will agree upon in order to make “Mr. Smile” a Met for the remainder of his perennial Hall of Fame career.
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