With a huge weekend series with the Reds on the horizon, the Cardinals still find themselves right in the thick of the Wild Card race, despite injuries, losing streaks, and a leaky bullpen.
They’ll open up tonight with Jon Lester on the bump against Tyler Mahle. They sit three back of the Padres, who also begin a crucial series this weekend against the Dodgers. Los Angeles leads the NL Wild Card race by 13 games. So in all likelihood, if the Cards can reach the postseason, they’ll have to match up against the defending champs, who almost certainly will throw Max Scherzer in that game, which doesn’t exactly bode well for St. Louis.
On Monday, Scherzer, a St. Louis native, threw 8 innings of one-run ball against them. The run that scored was an unearned run.
And that was a home game. The Cardinals would have to go to LA for the one-game playoff.
That doesn’t mean they’re screwed. It just means they’ll be heavy underdogs, which is nothing new for them. The Cardinals did just manage to split a four-game series with the Dodgers at home after losing two of three in LA at the beginning of June.
And they managed to defeat a powerful Phillies team in the 2011 NLDS, a team with four aces in their rotation, so it’s always possible. St. Louis will most likely have Adam Wainwright ready for the one-game playoff should they get there. So they would have a chance.
A matchup between Wainwright and Scherzer would be a dream game. Runs will probably be hard to come by if this is what the Wild Card game matchup turns out to be. And it could honestly go either way. We might get some vibes from Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS, when we saw a pitchers’ duel between Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay.
The main problem with this matchup is not the pitching, but rather, the inconsistent Cardinal lineup, which has been feast or famine all year. There’s always a chance Scherzer, or Wainwright for that matter, could have a clunker, but both pitchers are postseason legends, and on paper, the offense most likely to erupt would be that of the Dodgers, not the Cards.
St. Louis would have a better chance in that game if the Dodgers can overcome their 2 ½ game deficit in the West to take that division, and force the Giants into the Wild Card game. St. Louis did manage to win both series against San Francisco by taking two of three, all while they were still under .500. In one of those games, they managed to beat Giants ace Kevin Gausman.
They would still be heavy underdogs, no doubt. But Gausman doesn’t have near the postseason resume that Wainwright does, so that might give the Cards a slight advantage.
They would still have to play the Dodgers in the NLDS if they were to win the Wild Card game. But in a best of five playoff series they’ll have a better shot against Los Angeles too, though the Dodgers would be heavily favored in that too. They’ll just have more chances to win games and not have to worry about going home after one game.
Of course, the Cardinals need to get there first. There’s no guarantee they’ll even reach the playoffs. But if they can sneak into the Wild Card game, it’d be better if they don’t have to deal with Scherzer and the Dodgers.
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