The Patriots kick off their 2021 season by hosting the Miami Dolphins at 1 pm. Like any game, there are match-ups that are likely to decide the outcome.
Head Coaches
The head coach of Miami is Brian Flores, who has shifted their culture and been successful in so-called re-building years. Finishing second in the AFC East last season, Miami narrowly missed the playoffs. Flores’ team accomplished this while having a number of young draft picks, including their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He comes from the Belichick coaching tree and is familiar with the Patriots operation. This could lead to a real chess match between the two head coaches.
Will Bellichick mix up formations and tendencies to throw off some of Flores’ anticipation? Bellichick usually coaches with a tendency for deception, and we can expect it here with the familiarity these two have. Flores has shown to be a savvy coach in his early career, using his experience in New England to put his team at an advantage in a divisional opener would fit right along with that. Expect Flores to try and eliminate some of what he knows the Patriots want to do and live with the rest, much like Bellichick does.
Patriots Defensive Line vs. Tua Tagovailoa
According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots had the 23rd ranked pass rush in the NFL during the 2020 season. In addition, they ranked 26th in QB knockdowns. This resulted in a lot of pressure on Patriots defensive backs. Adding defensive line talent to a good linebacker group and arguably elite defensive back group this offseason solidifies the defense.
Matt Judon was signed to a four-year, $54 million contract this summer, following a season in which he led the Baltimore Ravens in pressures with 39. This signing, alongside the drafting of edge threat Christian Barmore as well as retaining pass rush specialist Chase Winovich show Belichick’s commitment to pressuring opposing quarterbacks.
A pass rush against the Dolphins this Sunday could be a decider of the outcome. In what is kind of a “prove it” year for Tua Tagovailoa, the Patriots will be sure to test him in the season opener. The Miami quarterback went 6-3 as a starter last year after
taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. While the record is good, most of those games featured underwhelming offensive outings with defense carrying the weight. In addition, Tagovailoa recently admitted that last year he was “not comfortable calling plays.” Perhaps common for a rookie, but points to some level of adjusting that the young quarterback is still doing. So the goal: make him uncomfortable. Winning at the line of scrimmage, making Tagovailoa take hits and feel pressure could derail the Dolphins passing offense, forcing them to become run-reliant.
Patriots running game vs. Dolphins run defense
In 2020, the Dolphins were ranked 16th in running yards allowed per game. This isn’t terrible, in fact it is exactly average. But following an offseason with little focus on stopping the run, the Patriots go into this game hoping to make the Dolphins run defense look a little less than just average.
With Damian Harris leading the attack as a traditional back, and James white contributing as an aerial threat, the Patriots have the tools to make an impact carrying the ball. Depth complete with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson and speedy JJ. Taylor gives the Patriots options to switch looks and confuse the Dolphins defense.
A strong attack on the ground gives the Patriots a number of advantages this Sunday. Most important is keeping the pressure off of rookie quarterback Mac Jones. To get yourself in a shootout where the pressure and outcome falls heavily on Jones’ shoulders is a less than ideal situation. Success in the running game will allow them to keep going to it, and also will open up looks in play action, allowing Jones to make clean reads and deliver the ball to a specific target with accuracy.
For more NFL coverage, click here.
