Week 5 of the NFL season is now upon us, giving NFL teams four games to evaluate their rookie talents. The 2021 Draft was headlined by offensive talent, with three quarterbacks going in the first three picks and 8 out of the first 10 picks coming on that side of the ball, with the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos choosing to bolster their secondary with cornerbacks.
So have these selections given their teams the results they have hoped for? Let’s grade each of the top ten picks so far.
QB Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
Stats: 57.0 CMP%, 873 YDS, 5 TD, 7 INT, 66.4 RATING
After being selected first overall in the 2021 draft, the Clemson product had unmatched pressure to perform for a Jacksonville Jaguars team in the midst of a 15-game losing streak, and dating back to his high school days, Trevor Lawrence had not lost a regular season football game. Not a single one.
Unfortunately for Lawrence, the NFL was not so kind to that streak.
The rookie quarterback has not adjusted to the NFL as fast as many had anticipated, and in fact, is the only quarterback in the first round to have yet to record a win (other than Trey Lance, who has not started a game). Lawrence’s seven interceptions are second among rookies, and he has multiple interceptions in three out of the four games he has started.
However, as is the case with the next quarterback on this list, Lawrence’s best game came last Thursday, where the Jaguars took the Cincinnati Bengals to the wire before losing on a game-winning field goal. Although Lawrence did not throw a touchdown pass, he completed over 70 percent of his passes and did not record an interception, instead relying on the run game and taking what the defense gave to him. While Lawrence has reached the “G.O.A.T” level many have touted him as reaching, he has plenty of time to adjust, although it may come slower than most people thought it would.
GRADE: C-
QB Zach Wilson – New York Jets
Stats: 56.8 CMP%, 925 YDS, 4 TD, 8 INT, 42.6 RATING
Out of all of the picks in the first round, Zach Wilson was put in the worst spot to immediately succeed. The New York Jets have been the laughing stock of football for almost the entirety of the 21st century, and this year’s team presented an inexperienced offensive line and lack-luster offensive weapons. And, as to be expected, Wilson has had some issues facing some tough defenses.
Wilson put up a solid performance in Week 1 against Carolina, throwing for 258 yards and two touchdowns to one interception, but his 54.1 completion percentage was his worst of the season. Things went even further downhill during Weeks 2 and 3 against the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, respectively, as Wilson threw zero touchdown passes and six interceptions, and many thought we were about to see the same Jets story play out.
But the BYU product was not going down like that.
Wilson got his first career win in Week 4 against the Tennessee Titans, throwing for 297 yards and a 61.8 completion percentage – both his best of the season so far. Wilson’s deep ball accuracy had previously come into question, but a 53-yard touchdown pass to Corey Davis to put the Jets ahead late in the fourth quarter silenced those concerns for the time being. While Wilson’s valleys have been the worst of any rookie quarterback in the early going, he is standing on the top of a hill after his first NFL win with many more peaks to climb as the rookie develops his game.
GRADE: C
QB Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers
Stats: 52.6%, 162 YDS, 3 TD, 0 INT, 11 ATT, 44 YDS, 1 TD
Trey Lance’s NFL journey so far has been the most unique of any of the rookies on his list.
Jimmy Garropolo was set as the San Francisco 49er’s starting quarterback, but the 6’4”, 224 pound dual-threat quarterback was a weapon Kyle Shanahan did not want to relegate exclusively to the bench. So instead, Shanahan has utilized a two-quarterback approach for the season so far, using Lance primarily in short-yardage and goal line instances. Lance scored one passing and one receiving in very limited work in Weeks 1 and 3, still waiting for his opportunity to prove himself as more than just a toy in Shanahan’s box.
He got that opportunity in Week 4 after Jimmy G went down with a calf injury early in the second half against the Seattle Seahawks. Lance did not disappoint in that stat department, throwing for 157 yards and two touchdowns while adding 44 yards on the ground and a successful two-point conversion attempt, but it was not all perfect for the North Dakota State product. 76 of those yards came on a wide-open catch-and-run from Deebo Samuel, and Lance consistently exhibited bad throwing mechanics and overthrows on short passes. Lance showed his natural ability to escape pressure and make plays, but he still looks like he needs some fine-tuning in order to take over full time for the 49ers.
GRADE: B-
TE Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
Stats: 15 REC, 189 YDS, 47.3 YDS/GM, 12.6 AVG, 0 TD
After being selected as the highest drafted tight end ever out of Florida, the 6’6”, 240 pound Kyle Pitts looked like he was primed to exploit mismatches with his size and speed and make big plays.
However, he, Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons offense in its entirety has not found its rhythm early on.
After averaging over 17 yards per catch and pulling in 12 touchdowns in his final year with the Gators, Pitts has only managed an average of 12.6 yards per catch and has not yet found the end zone. However, Pitts has been targeted eight times in the red zone thus far, but has only managed to come down with two completions – both of which did not end in six points. His
In an offense void of Julio Jones, Pitts is primed to become Ryan’s second target to Calvin Ridley, but the Falcons need to use his video-game-like size and speed to more of an advantage. His next two matchups against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins should be favorable to Pitts and allow him to finally break out amongst a group of talented pass-catchers in the first round.
GRADE: C+
WR Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals
Stats: 17 REC, 297 YDS, 74.3 YDS/GM, 17.5 AVG, 4 TD
After last year’s devastating knee injury, 2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow is back to cement himself as the franchises’ franchise quarterback, and to help him out, the team drafted former teammate Ja’Marr Chase as the first receiver in the draft. Despite the obvious chemistry, many thought this pick was a slight reach with others on the board, and Chase fed fuel to his doubters’ fire with a drop problem early in preseason.
The LSU tandem apparently had not been listening.
Ja’Marr Chase leads all rookie receivers in virtually every category outside of receptions. He is on pace for 72 receptions and 1,262 yards at a 17.5 average yards per catch and thus far has only recorded one drop. Chase has also been a touchdown machine, trailing Cooper Kupp by one touchdown for the NFL lead. He has also recorded at least one play of 40 plus yards in every game this season, proving that he is not only one of the best rookie receivers, but best overall deep threats in the entire league.
GRADE: A
WR Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins
Stats: 25 REC, 200 YDS, 50.0 YDS/GM, 8.0 AVG, 1 TD
Jaylen Waddle was the first of the many Crimson Tide draft picks to go off the board despite coming off of an injury that nearly knocked him out for the entire season. The speedster runs a 4.37 40-yard dash, and 11 out of his 20 college touchdowns went for 50 plus yards, providing the Miami Dolphins with game breaking speed.
Waddle has yet to use this speed to advantage, however. His longest play for 36 yards came in Week 1, and since he has not had a single completion over 20 yards. He is on pace for over 100 catches, but this is inflated due to a 12 catch, 58 yards performance in Week 3. He has averaged just 8.0 yards per catch and caught one touchdown. Waddle has also fumbled the ball twice, calling into question his ball security issues that have plagued him since college.
That being said, Waddle has been limited due to Jacoby Brisett manning the offense until Tua Tagovailoa comes back from injury. He put up 61 yards at a 15.2 yards per catch clip in the first game with Tua, who is set to return after Week 6. As of now, Waddle seems to be doing all he can with a lack of a deep passing game, so it remains to be seen if we will get a breakout once the Dolphin’s offense is back to full strength.
GRADE: B
OT Penei Sewell – Detroit Lions
Stats: 283 SNAPS, 3 PENALTIES, 2 SACKS ALLOWED
The first lineman selected in the draft, Penei Sewell has been asked to step in at left tackle while Taylor Decker is on injured reserve, and it is apparent after tough matchups against the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears that the young Oregon product is not ready to take over those duties quite yet.
After a solid start early on, Sewell has struggled mightily in his last two matchups. In his most recent matchup, he allowed a strip-sack to Robert Quinn and another sack to Khalil Mack, those two sacks being more than Decker allowed all of last year. Also, Sewell’s overall Pro Football Focus grade is worse than any singular game that Decker has ever played in, struggling especially in pass blocking.
Now, it’s unfair to compare Sewell to a veteran left tackle as talented as Decker, but it is inevitable due to his current circumstances. The Lions are not going to make the playoffs, so it might be good for Sewell in the longterm to be thrown into the deep end for a bit. He has been playing well overall, but did show some weakness against a tough Bear’s defensive line. It will be interesting to see if Sewell is able to prove himself to be the future protector of Goff’s blindside until Decker is able to return.
GRADE: B
CB Jaycee Horn – Carolina Panthers
Stats: 3 SOLO, 2 AST, 1 PD, 1 INT
Unfortunately for Jaycee Horn and the Carolina Panthers, a broken foot has ended the majority, if not all, of his rookie season, giving us limited tap to evaluate the former Gamecock. He was able to come down with one pick against the New Orleans Saints, and his percent of snaps played in three games went from 67 percent to 98 percent before going down against the Houston Texans, proving to be the Panthers’ solidified secondary corner to Dante Jackson. He was limited in his targets – usually a good thing for a rookie – and although he did give up a touchdown to Corey Davis, he played the ball well and nearly knocked it out of his hands.
The Panthers traded for Jaguars cornerback C.J. Henderson to fill the space left by Horn and they, along with all NFL fans, hope Horn can get back to the field as soon as possible.
GRADE: B
CB Patrick Surtain II – Denver Broncos
Stats: 13 SOLO, 2 AST, 1 PD, 1 INT
The Denver Broncos followed the Panthers by taking the next best corner on the board out of Alabama. Patrick Surtain II – son of former NFL corner Patrick Surtain – joined a Broncos defense already stacked with talent up front and returning pass rusher Von Miller to the fold. Surtain only played 26 percent of his snaps Week 1, but was then put into the starting lineup for the next three games due to an injury to Ronald Darby.
Surtain II has made the most of his opportunity.
In his first three games, Surtain II allowed just a 10.7 passing rating, meaning quarterbacks would have been better off throwing the ball fifty feet into the stands than at the young rookie corner. Surtain II’s first NFL interception came against the previously mentioned first overall pick Trevor Lawrence on a deep ball, blanketing the receiver and making a remarkable catch along the sidelines. Surtain II has been as advertised, and his odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year sit at +400, tied for first place. Surtain II should be primed to be a mainstay in the Denver secondary for the foreseeable future.
GRADE: A-
WR Devonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles
Stats: 18 REC, 237 YDS, 13.2 YDS/REC, 59.3 YDS/GM, 1 TD
Rounding out the top 10 was Bilinekoff and Heisman Award-Winner Devonta Smith – the third Alabama player taken in the first 10 picks. Smith would be receiving the ball from his own former quarterback Jalen Hurts and join a Philadelphia Eagles offense in need of a true number one receiver.
He has not reached that status quite yet, but he is on the right track.
In his first four games, Smith has the most targets on the team (31) with the second closest being Jalen Reagor at 20 and has received at least 6 in each game. He came out of gates hot, recording 6 catches for 71 yards and his first career touchdown in Week 1, but followed that up with 5 catches for 44 yards in his next two games combined. His most recent showing against the Chiefs was the best of his career yet – hauling in seven balls for 122 yards and looking like the receiver the Eagles have needed for their offense since losing Desean Jackson.
The moral of the story for Devonta Smith is that he is beyond talented and the undisputed number one target for Jalen Hurts in the offense. When the Eagles offense is going, Devonta Smith is at the forefront, and when they have struggled, he is almost nowhere to be found. Smith has to find a way to transcend the good defenses and game script to achieve the consistency of a number one and translate the talent that turned the Alabama receiver from a 170 pound, undersized third option into the most talented college player in the entire country.
GRADE: B+
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