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Is It Time To Question Bill Belichick ’s Fourth Down Decision Making?

Bill Belichick fourth down

Now six games into the season, the Patriots are 2-4 and have lost a number of close games against honorable opponents. While the defense has probably under performed and the offense is an obvious work in progress, some of these games have featured some coaching missteps that the team is not used to. 

Two examples against the Cowboys in week six stand out. To end the first half the Patriots forced a fumble from a Cowboys drive that lasted slightly past the two minute warning. The Patriots recovered and had the ball with a time out and 1:30 on the game clock on the 20 yard-line. Oddly enough Bill Belichick elected to run a single running play and then two kneels back to back to end the half, no aggression at all against a high scoring opponent. 

“Because we were getting the ball the start of the second half”, explained Belichick when asked about his decision to kneel the ball. That’s fair, you have a rookie QB and do not want to force anything at the end of the half knowing you possess the ball to open the second. But why did the team call two timeouts during the Cowboys last drive to just kneel the ball when they got it? It seems counter productive to aggressively take timeouts in that spot, but not give your offense a chance to capitalize when it works. 

The second example was more of a judgement call, but one I think they got wrong. The Patriots found themselves in OT with a Cowboys team that clearly had an ability to move the ball down field against this Patriots defense. Getting the ball first with a chance to win the game, the Patriots found themselves in a third and three after a first down throw from Mac Jones and a couple small gain runs by Damian Harris. The third down play was unsuccessful, although WR Nelson Agholar may have been interfered with. That left them with fourth down. 

At the Patriots 46 yard-line, the offense only needed three yards to keep the drive going. Belichick elected to punt the ball away here and look to his defense for a stop. The problem is that the defense had been out there for 75 plays at this point, and were struggling to keep the Cowboys out of field goal range which was all they needed to win the game. While punting here isn’t necessarily the worst call, letting your offense go for it in a spot as big as that is something we haven’t seen all year frm the Patriots. It felt like against an offense as lethal as this one, you would rather go for a short three yards rather than hand the ball over.

Week six against the Cowboys was a great example of how Bill Belichick’s conservative style of coaching may be costing them in big games. Sure, in some games against some opponents this style may work, but as the league continues to become more offensive oriented, it feels like being more aggressive offensively pays off more often than not. In addition, this Patriots offense continues to struggle to do anything special, and could use aggression in terms of late half and down decision making to bolster its point scoring ability.

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