Last week started off tough for me when I looked at the box store to see Mike White throw for 405 yards and have the Jets beat the Bengals outright 34-31. Despite not picking correctly I am happy for Mike White, that is cool to see a backup go off and potentially win the starting job when Wilson comes back from injury. Buffalo started out slow against the lowly Dolphins but picked it up when it needed to happen and helped me push -14. It might have taken overtime but when you have the ML and not the spread you don’t care what it takes as long as your team pulls out the win, that is exactly what the Titans did for me. The Texans put on a scare when they scored 22 unanswered points but the Rams did enough to cover -14.5. The Saints upset the Bucs as Brade throws a pick six to seal the loss for Tampa Bay
Overall Record: 18-15-1
5. Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens (-5.5):
The Vikings couldn’t even beat the Cowboys backup quarterback, what makes you think they’ll pull off a win against the Ravens? The Viking are 1-4 against the spread this year, whereas the Ravens are 3-0-3. Both teams are coming off losses but the Ravens are 4-1 in outdoor games. Ravens defense is ranked 25th for yards allowed per game (382.3) and the Vikings defense is ranked 21st (367). I believe the Ravens bad defense gets picked up by their good offense.
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
4. Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys (-10):
It pains me to say for all of America but the Dallas Cowboys are a legit team this year. They are now winning with a backup quarterback. They are 6-1 on the season and their ATS record mirrors their season record. Denver just traded away their best defensive player to the Rams, they are 2-3-1 ATS, and they rank 23rd in points scored per game (19.6).
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-10)
3. New England Patriots (-3.5) vs Carolina Panthers:
It looks like Sam Darnold won’t get a redemption game against his old foes the New England defense. Both teams ATS records are subpar but that isn’t what you look at in a game like this. What are home and away records for these teams? Carolina are 2-2 at home this season. The Patriots are a steller 3-0 on the road this year, their biggest win coming a Sunday ago at the LA Chargers where they made Herbert look as uncomfortable as he’s looked all year. Mac Jones looks to be getting more comfortable in the NFL world and the coaches look to be letting him sling the pigskin all over the field now.
My Pick: New England Patriots (-195)
2. Buffalo Bills (-14.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars:
Buffalo seems like a team of destiny this season. The AFC is wide open for anyone to take and whoever makes the least amount of mistakes this postseason run will come out on top, compared to the NFC which could be one of many teams. I cannot picture this game any other way besides a bloodbath for the Jaguars. Buffalo ranks in the top 10 for every offense and defense category, whereas Jacksonville ranks no lower than 15th (rushing yards per game). This is a good game to sprinkle some money on the over (48.5) because you know the Jaguars could get some garbage time points against the second string defense.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
1. Los Angeles Chargers (1.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles:
The Eagles have a 3-5 record on the season, but you know the saying, good teams win and great teams cover. They must be a great team having a 6-2 record ATS. The LA Chargers are the same way however, 4-3 record but 4-1-1 ATS. The Chargers are coming off their Halloween loss to the Patriots and the Eagles are coming off their dominant victory against the Lions. This game can go either way with the spread only one and a half points which is why I love it so much.
My Pick: LA Chargers (-1.5)
For more NFL coverage, click here.
