We are officially at the halfway point of the 2021 NFL season – a time when Super Bowl contenders are established, rebuilding franchises are scouting college talent for the draft and fans are able to take a deep breath and make sense of the current playoff landscape and gear up for the chaos that the second half will bring.
The chaos came much sooner than anticipated.
Week 9 saw some of the biggest favorites to take home the Lombardi trophy fall in embarrassing fashion, with most losing to teams that will be sitting top five in the upcoming draft. On the week, seven out of the thirteen matchups on the week ended with the underdogs winning outright – five of whom were able to pull the upset on the opposing team’s turf.
Now that the smoke has cleared, it’s time to piece together what exactly happened to these teams and what each of their losses mean going forward. So now, I will analyze each of the top five most shocking losses this week and say if the team in question should panic or not.
5. Atlanta Falcons over New Orleans Saints 27-25
A week after upsetting division leader Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home, the New Orleans Saints hosted the Atlanta Falcons at home, looking to take control of the division with a win. The Saints learned after the game they would be without starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the remainder of the season, as well as wide receiver Michael Thomas, who had yet to play a game with the team, but a potent run game and dominant defense still have New Orleans primed to make a run to the playoffs. Atlanta, on the other hand, came into Sunday after going 3-2 in one possession games against teams currently without a winning record, including a 19-13 loss to the struggling Carolina Panthers in their last matchup.
The game looked to be all Falcons early, as the team rode a strong performance from Matt Ryan to a 10-0 lead at the half and a lead as big as 24-6 midway through the third quarter. The Saints battled back, scoring three consecutive touchdowns to take the lead by the end of the fourth quarter 25-24. However, it was not enough, as Ryan completed a 64-yard pass to Cordarelle Patterson on the final drive of the game to set up a game
winning field goal by Younghoe Koo, handing the Saints a brutal home defeat and the Falcons a pivotal win the keep them in the hunt for an NFC Wild Card berth.
The Saints offense with Trevor Siemian at the helm looked dismal to begin the game, but the journeyman quarterback was able to put up respectable numbers (249 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions), and the running game put up a respectable 109 yards on 4.4 yards per carry, but was unable to rack up big plays early to give the team the lead. The number one rushing defense in the NFL continued its dominance, but the passing defense has now allowed over 300 yards to quarterbacks in back to back weeks. This presents a huge problem coupled with the 3rd least amount of sacks in the NFL (13), which only generated 2 sacks against Atlanta. The defense was also unable to force an interception, as their third-ranked 11 interceptions have helped limit passing offenses.
The Saints formula is to generate early leads and sustain long drives to limit aggressive passing offenses and generate key turnovers, and although they failed in both respects on Sunday, they still held a lead with a minute left in the game. The Saints will face the
weak aerial attacks of the Titans and Eagles in consecutive weeks, and although puts their divisional aspirations on hold, the defense should still be able to carry the team throughout the remainder of the season.
New Orleans Saints Verdict: Don’t Panic
4. Tennessee Titans over Los Angeles Rams 28-16
Sunday Night football pitted the two top teams in the AFC and NFC, the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Rams, respectively, against each other, but the loss of star running back Derrick Henry had the Titans as seven point underdogs against Matthew Stafford’s high powered offense. As one of only two one-loss teams remaining, the Rams sat amongst most fans favorites to win the Super Bowl, while a Titans team without Henry seemed to have lost its identity and seemed destined to fade out of contention.
Both of those notions will have to be put on hold for at least another week.
Tennessee’s defense put on a dominant performance, holding Los Angeles to under 20 points for the first time all season. Stafford looked uncomfortable from the beginning, as the Titans defensive line wreaked havoc, sacking him five times and forcing two interceptions – one at the goal line to set up a one play score and one pick-six on the next drive to bury the Rams into a 21-3 deficit early on. The defense held strong for the rest of the game, only yielding one touchdown on the last offensive possession of the
game with the game already well out of reach. The Rams ran almost 20 more plays and recorded almost 150 more yards on offense, but the key turnovers and inefficiency in the red zone prevented them from mounting any sort of comeback.
These two teams both bolster defenses among the top five in sacks and turnovers, which will allow both teams to remain competitive in games despite lackluster offensive showings, and in this game, the Titans just happened to be on the right side of more timely plays. This game proved more about the Titans legitimacy to remain in contention despite the injury to Henry more so than anything about the Rams’ chances at a title. Los Angeles will remain in contention for the number one overall seed, although they have lost two out of three games against fellow contenders and must prove they have what it takes to beat the best. As for the Titans, they put up just 194 total yards and just 69 yards on the ground on just 2.7 yards per carry, and they should not expect the defense to carry them to wins against teams as good as the Rams. Both teams remain among the best in football, but this game highlighted weaknesses both teams need to address before playoff time.
Los Angeles Rams Verdict: Don’t Panic
3. New York Giants over Las Vegas Raiders 23-16
Despite turmoil throughout the season, the Las Vegas Raiders have remained atop a competitive AFC West division, and coming off back to back dominant wins and a bye week, the team seemed well rested and owning momentum to continue that streak against a rebuilding New York Giants team. However, New York’s 2-6 record is a bit deceiving compared to previous teams, as three out of their six losses have come in one possession games, and quarterback Daniel Jones is having the best season of his career despite the loss of Saquon Barkley to injury early in the season.
The game turned out to be a close one, with the Raiders holding a slim 13-10 lead out of halftime in a shocking back and forth first half. However, the second half was a disaster for the Raiders, as Derek Carr opened the half with a 41-yard pick-six to second year cornerback Xavier McKinney. Las Vegas managed a field goal to trim the deficit to a point, but sloppy offense prevented them from taking the lead back. Their final drives of the game came up scoreless and included a missed field goal, interception and strip-sack fumble. Carr finished with 296 yards passing, but the red zone offense continued to struggle, going 1-6 and tanking their season percentage to 53% (27th in the NFL). The return of Josh Jacobs (13 carries, 76 yards) gave some life to one of NFL’s worst ground games, but these factors were too much to overcome against a Giant’s defense that ranks just 18th in points against.
This Raider’s team is the first team on this list I say should be a bit worried. Outside of an overtime Raven’s victory, their only real decisive win was against Denver in which they still allowed over 300 yards passing and were aided by a deep touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs III, who is no longer a part of the organization. Derek Carr has had a great season so far, but despite being third in passing yards, he ranks just 15th in touchdowns and has the 17th highest QBR (53.8). The hope for the Raiders is their 206.9 passing yards per game allowed on defense, which ranks fifth in the NFL, but this loss to Giants came with Daniel Jones throwing just 20 times for 110 yards. With the defense playing well enough to win games, Las Vegas is going to have to figure out how to get the ball into the end zone whether through the ground or the air, and with little success halfway into the NFL season and all three team division rivals eyeing the playoffs, they could all steal enough games for the Raiders to remain on the outside looking in.
Las Vegas Raiders Prediction: Panic
2. Denver Broncos over Dallas Cowboys 30-16
The second most shocking result of Sunday’s early slate of games came courtesy of the 4-4 Denver Broncos. The Broncos have sported a dominant defense all year (17 PPG), but have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Many thought Denver could be the sneaky team from the AFC West to sneak into a wild card spot, but their record through eight games of the season looked as if they were destined to finish around .500. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have looked like one of the most dominant teams in the NFC, rattling off six consecutive wins after losing by just two points to the Buccaneers. Favored at home by 10 points, this was looking like the Cowboys could launch themselves further ahead in the race for the one seed.
The Broncos defense had other plans.
In one of the most dominant three quarters of football we have seen all season, the Broncos held the Dak Prescott-led Dallas Cowboys to just 127 yards of total offense and around just 12 minutes of total possession. The Cowboys could not contain the running game of Denver, as the combination of rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin
Gordon III ran for 190 yards on 41 carries, chewing down the clock and wearing down Dallas’ defense. The Cowboys sport the 10th best run defense, and the Broncos have the 12th best rushing offense, but it was Denver that triumphed in the end. The Broncos passing defense also put on a clinic, holding the Cowboys potent wide receiver duo of CeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper to a combined four catches for 60 yards, causing Prescott confusion on where to throw the ball.
If I am the Cowboys, I am throwing this entire game out and continuing the season as if nothing happened. Prescott had not played in a game in two weeks due to injury and a bye week, and it’s a tough task to come back fresh against one of the best defenses’ in the entire league. Momentum was stopped early on two gutsy fourth down play calls –
one that Prescott normally would make – and the defense got worn down from the physicality of the Broncos rushing attack led by Williams in his first breakout game. The Cowboys also blocked a punt down just two possessions, only to have it kick just past the line of scrimmage off of a Cowboys’ special teamer and back to Broncos. Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for America’s team.
This game to me seems like a classic fluke game from the Cowboys offense, which was able to come to form with two touchdown drives to finish the game, but that does not mean it does not speak highly of the Denver Broncos. Their defense is full of young talent and stands out amongst the mediocre defenses in their division, and if Teddy Bridgewater can maintain his efficiency and limit turnovers behind a budding rushing attack, Vic Fangio’s group could end up sneaking their way into the playoffs. As for the Cowboys, they are far and away the best team in their division, and now that Prescott has his feet back under him, the offense should right the ship in the coming weeks against the Falcons and Chiefs.
Dallas Cowboys Verdict: Don’t Panic
1. Jacksonville Jaguars over Buffalo Bills 9-6
I don’t think upset quite describes the game that unfolded between the Jaguars and Bills.
This matchup featured two teams in completely different NFL universes. The 5-2 Buffalo Bills came into this game the favorites in the AFC and possibly destined to become Super Bowl champions, while the 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the bigger disappointments due to the disappointment of Trevor Lawrence and the distractions of Urban Meyer. This was the most irrelevant game on Sunday’s card, with the Bills coming in as 14.5 point favorites despite playing on the road.
Then, Buffalo Josh Allen met Jacksonville Josh Allen.
The Jaguar’s defensive end must have taken being called the “other Josh Allen” way more personally than anyone expected. The seventh overall pick in 2019 out of
Kentucky became the first player to sack a quarterback of the same name, as well as to record an interception and a fumble recovery. Allen led the way for a Jacksonville defense that held a Bills offense averaging 29 points per game to just 6 total, turning Josh Allen over three times, sacking him four times and hitting him eight times. The Bills offense was out of whack the entire game, converting on third down just 6 out of 15 times and only making it into the red zone on one possession. They also recorded an astounding 12 penalties on 118 penalty yards, most of which came on defense, but yet did not yield any touchdowns to a Jacksonville offense that managed just 218 yards of total offense.
If I am the Bills, as flukey as this loss seems, I cannot help but throw up the panic button. Their defense was as dominant as they should be, allowing just 14 points per game and 9 total on Sunday, but to put up just six points against a team in Jacksonville that allows the 7th most points in the NFL is almost unacceptable. They were either tied or down by a field goal the entire game, and the inability to put together even one comeback drive to kick a field goal or get the ball into the end zone is mind boggling. It’s a loss comparable to that of the Packers Week 1 38-3 loss to the Saints, but even that game was well out of reach early in the second half.
This game really leaves the Bills with two main questions heading into the second half of the season. The first is can their offense really score against good defenses. Each of their wins so far this season have come against teams within the bottom 10 in points allowed per game, and in their only game against a top 10 defense, they mustered just 16 points. Secondly, can their offense come out on top in close games. In their five wins, their average margin of victory has been 26 points, and their three losses have come down to one possession games. The Bills will not face top 10 defenses until they face the Saints and Patriots in Weeks 12 and 13, so it will remain to be seen if their offense has what it takes, but if this team has any chance of reaching the Super Bowl, they will need to prove they can scratch out wins even when they do not have their best offense on the field.
Maybe never having to face another Josh Allen for the remainder of the season will help, as well. Buffalo Bills Verdict: Slightly Panic
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