To fantasy managers that read The Bird’s Nest last week and started Dak Prescott, Cordarelle Patterson, Darnell Mooney, and Pat Friermuth, congratulations on wonderful weeks. To those fantasy managers that lost Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and/or Deebo Samuel, commiserations.
Week 12 was a statement week. This week separated the strong and the weak while painting most playoff pictures for fantasy leagues. Managers that were able to survive the week without severe injuries are in great shape for the long road ahead. But, most were not so lucky with the week that was.
Quarterbacks
In general, this week was a pretty down week for quarterbacks. Josh Allen led the way with 26.3 fantasy points against the Saints on Thanksgiving. Only two other quarterbacks posted more than 25 points at the position, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott.
Matthew Stafford was very quickly falling out of the good graces of fantasy managers. In his last two games before his meeting with Green Bay on Sunday, Stafford compiled a TD to INT ratio of two to four in weeks 10 and 11. Even in a negative gamescript, Stafford was able to rebound quite nicely for the Rams and his fantasy managers, totaling 302 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. A quiet top 5 finish at the quarterback position this week for Stafford, who takes on Jacksonville next week.
My oh my, what a fall from grace for Cam Newton. He was flat-out awful for Carolina in week 12, going 5/21 passing with only 92 passing yards and two picks. While Cam goes on bye next week, one has to wonder about the future fantasy prospects for anyone belonging to the Carolina Panthers, especially with the new injury to Christian McCaffrey. The bye should provide some clarity in Carolina, but it will be hard to trust Cam especially now that this performance will be on the minds of most when considering whether to start him or not week-to-week.
Consider this being the first sign of fantasy managers being fully out on the Seattle Seahawks. While Russell Wilson was solid Monday versus Washington, the team absolutely stinks. Even with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the fold, this isn’t an offense where fantasy managers should be investing their time and their patience. I still ask myself how it took Wilson until late in the 4th quarter to even get Metcalf a catch. If fantasy managers need sure-fire wins this week, Seattle is not the place to look even with a home date against San Francisco on the horizon.
Running Backs
Welp, this week happened. Losing Christian McCaffrey for the season along with Dalvin Cook until week 15 minimum could be the last blow for some fantasy teams. McCaffrey finishes this season again with more games out than he has played. One has to wonder for next season if McCaffrey will even be worth taking a stab on. As for Cook, fire up the Alexander Mattison shares this week and beyond as he gets a home date with the Lions on Sunday.
Leonard Fournette had himself a day against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling 131 total yards and 4 total touchdowns Sunday. He could have had himself 5 total if Ronald Jones didn’t steal one at the goal line. What a performance from Fournette, who is now the locked and loaded RB1 in Tampa. As long as Tom Brady is around, this is the Bucs RB to have in fantasy and should be started with supreme confidence moving forward.
Consider me very nervous about two specific RB situations moving forward, starting in Dallas with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Elliott has been hurt for the better part of 6 weeks with a knee injury, yet in typical Zeke fashion is still playing. Pollard has shown that he can hold his own as well and if it was up to common sense, common sense would say give Zeke a game off and let Tony go. Will Dallas do that? Probably not after Monday’s practice report which saw Zeke fully practice.
And now, the madness. What the hell is up in Cleveland? Between Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D’Ernest Johnson, the Browns have three running backs to use at their disposal. Johnson didn’t record a touch, but Chubb and Hunt split the work with 10 touches going to Chubb and 7 going to Hunt. The game script for Cleveland was funky, but expect more work going forward for these running backs.
Wide Receivers
New strategy for next year: If a receiver gets drafted by the team that holds their starting quarterback from college, draft them in fantasy. Case in point with how good Ja’Marr Chase has been, but this is about another guy that fits the criteria. Step in Jaylin Waddle, who had 9 catches for 137 yards and a touchdown against Carolina. Personally, this week many thought Waddle could be in for a rough outing against a Carolina defense that had been very good. But the wheels simply fell off, and Miami made them pay with Waddle being the primary beneficiary. Waddle finishes as the number one wide receiver in fantasy for the week, and he should be started with confidence moving forward as a mid WR2.
Deebo Samuel left the 49ers win against Minnesota on Sunday with a groin injury. Samuel is expected to miss 1-2 weeks with the injury, so hop on the Brandon Aiyuk train. Aiyuk is slated to be the number one receiver and number two target for Jimmy Garoppolo Sunday versus Seattle, and this figures to be a fantastic matchup for Aiyuk to potentially produce with Samuel missing.
It may be time to start worrying about Michael Pittman. Pittman had another down week, recording 4 catches for 53 yards against Tampa Bay after producing 2 catches for 23 yards against Buffalo in week 11. Pittman is a smash play this week versus Houston, but then has a late week 14 bye. Once the bye is over, Pittman sees New England, Arizona, and Las Vegas for fantasy playoffs. I wouldn’t trust Pittman so much against New England or Arizona despite how good he has been, so if trade deadlines are still a few days or weeks away, it may be best to look at what could be fetched for Pittman.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski is the man. End of story. Gronk had himself a monster performance against the Colts, tying Leonard Fournette with the most receptions and leading the team in targets. It is no secret that Brady is always going to look Gronk’s way, but the only thing he didn’t do Sunday was score. Gronk is a plug-and-play option at the tight end position moving forward.
Dawson Knox was not given a very favorable review in The Bird’s Nest last week, as he needed touchdowns to justify his start. Well, out of his three catches, two of them found paydirt. Knox is who he is, a touchdown-dependent guy moving forward and should only be started with the expectation that he will score, otherwise expect the burn.
The position as a whole is dreadful. Jack Doyle, rostered in 1.0% of ESPN leagues, leads the TE position in points this week. Tight end is a crapshoot, and will continue to be such for possibly the remainder of eternity.
