I am going to examine my hitter player predictions for the 2021 season in this article and see how I did. Use the following links to view my articles discussing my hitter predictions. 8 Hitters That Will Perform Better In 2021 – Talking Points Sports. MLB: 8 Hitters That Will Perform Worse in 2021 – Talking Points Sports. I made 16 predictions and 14 of them were successful. One of those predictions was that Bryce Harper would have a better 2021 season and be in the MVP conversation, which was very successful as he won the NL MVP. My predictions were made based mainly on wOBA and xwOBA; therefore, xwOBA looks to be a strong measure of predicting performance and wOBA as showcased by my 87.5% success rate on the predictions.
Succesful Predictions:
Bryce Harper – OF, Philadelphia Phillies
I predicted that Bryce Harper would have an even better 2021 season and end up in the MVP conversation at the end of the season. And boy did this prediction age quite well as Harper won the NL MVP in 2021! Harper was impressive in 2020 with a .400 wOBA, but his .453 xwOBA showcased that he is along the elite players in baseball. Harper had a monster season in 2021 with a slash line of .309/.429/.615, an OPS of 1.044, 35 home runs, 84 runs batted in, 101 runs, 13 stolen bases, and an MLB-Best wOBA of .431!. His xwOBA in 2021 was .430 so he performed to his expected talent in 2021 and that led to him winning the MVP. There was little room for Harper to improve after his 2020 season, but his .053 difference in xwOBA and wOBA gave me reason to think he could win the MVP and 2021. Bryce Harper performed better in 2021 and won the MVP so this was an extremely successful prediction.
Dylan Carlson – OF, St. Louis Cardinals
I predicted that Dylan Carlson would have a much improved 2021 season and be a contender for the NL Rookie of the Year. In 2020, he had a poor wOBA of .264 and much higher xwOBA of .314. In 2021, Carlson showed tremendouus improvement as he had a slashline of .266/.343/.436 with 18 home runs and a .336 wOBA which led to him finishing 3rd in NL Rookie the Year voting. Carlson transformed into an above average hitters and is a very talented young outfielder. His xwOBA of .314 gave me a strong belief that he would improve in 2021 which is highlighted by his .336 wOBA in 2021. Dylan Carlson performed better in 2021 so this was a successful prediction.
Tommy Pham – OF, San Diego Padres
I predicted that Tommy Pham would have a bounce-back season in 2021 and improve significantly. Pham battles hand injuries in 2020 which led to significantly lower launch angle and significantly higher groundball percentage than he’s had in the rest of his career. He finished 202 with a .286 wOBA and xwOBA of .353. Pham was destined to improve in 2021 and he did with a slash line of .229/.340/.383, 15 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a wOBA of .318. Pham had a worse season based on his career numbers, but it appears that as he gets older and into his mid-30s, he is declining. Regardless, Pham was always going to improve in 2021 based on the significant difference between his 2020 wOBA of .286 and xwOBA of .353. Pham was healthy in 2021 which allowed his launch angle and groundball percentage to return back to normal, which definitely played a big part in his 2021 improvements. Tommy Pham performed better in 2021 so this was a succesful prediction.
Gregory Polanco – OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
I predicted that Gregory Polanco would have a much-improved 2021 season but still be a below average offensive player. Polanco had the 2nd worst wOBA in the league in 2020 of .232, but he did boast an xwOBA of .301, so he was likely going to perform closer to that level in 2021. Polanco had a poor .275 wOBA in 2021, but that is a significant improvement over his 2020 performance. Gregory Polanco performed better in 2021 so this was a successful prediction.
Danny Jansen – C, Toronto Blue Jays
I predicted that Danny Jansen would have better 2021 season and become an offensive threat at the plate. Jansen had a decent .300 wOBA in 2020, but that was .052 points lower than his xwOBA of .352. He also had a career xwOBA of .321, so I believe he very likely improve in 2021. Jansen struggled in the first half of 2021, but he had a monster 2nd half where he posted .476 wOBA! That dominant 2nd half led to an overall wOBA of .329 in 2021. Jansen slashes .223/.299/.473 with 11 home runs in 184 at bats. He showcased the power I knew he was capable of, and he performed to his true talent with an xwOBA of .333 that almost equals his wOBA from 2021. Danny Jansen performed better in 2021 so this was a succesful prediction.
Max Muncy – INF, Los Angeles Dodgers
I predicted Max Muncy would return to being a lethal threat at the plate in 2021. Muncy had a surprising down year in 2020 with a .720 OPS and .316 wOBA. He did have .365 xwOBA and had hit for impressive wOBA’ s of .407 and .373 in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. I believed that the 2020 season for Muncy was fluke and that the short season was the reason for his poor 2020 performance. And oh boy did Muncy improve in 2021! He slashed .249/.368/.527 with 36 home runs, 94 runs batted in, a .895 OPS, and a wOBA of .379. Muncy put up very similar numbers to his 2018 and 2019 seasons. I expect Muncy for the next couple years to find similar success and hit to a wOBA that is around his career xwOBA of .376. Max Muncy performed better in 2021 so this was a succesful prediction.
Eduardo Escobar – INF, Arizona Diamondbacks/Milwaukee Brewers
I predicted that Eduardo Escobar would have far more success in 2021. Escobar had a down season in 2020 with an awful wOBA of .257 and an xwOBA of .305. That along with a career average wOBA of .314 gave ample evidence that Escobar would find more success in 2021 than he did in 2020. Escobar returned to his above average offensive production and looked like the same player that he was from 2017-2019. In 2021, Escobar slashed .253/.314/.472 with 28 home runs, 90 runs batted in , and OPS of .786, and a wOBA of .334. Escobar improved significantly in 2021 and performed to his true level of talent as he has an xwOBA of .328 in 2021. Escobar looks to be in a prime position to help my Mets make a postseason run in 2022. Eduardo Escobar performed much better in 2021 so this was a succesful prediction.
DJ LeMahieu – INF, New York Yankees
I predicted that DJ LeMahieu would perform worse in 2021. LeMahieu has a monster 2020 season with a .428 wOBA and a 1.011 OPS. DJ had an xwOBA of .361 which was .067 points lower than his wOBA in 2020. This gave strong reason to believe that LeMahieu would put up more pedestrian numbers in 2020 and he did. He slashes .268/.349/.362 with 84 runs, 10 home runs, 57 runs batted in, and a wOBA of .315 in 2021. He regressed even further than I would have thought, and his xwOBA of .338 in 2021 suggests he should have had a little bit more success. Nevertheless, DJ LeMahieu performed much worse in 2021 so this was a succesful prediction.
Raimel Tapia – OF, Colorado Rockies
I predicted that Raimel Tapia would perform worse and be a below average hitter in 2021. Tapia had an impressive 2020 with a slash line of .321/.369/.402 and a wOBA of .338. However, he had an xwOBA of .290 and BABIP of .392, which signaled that he overperformed in 2020. As expected, Tapia found less success in 2021 with a slash line of .273/.327/.372 with a wOBA of just .305. I believe Tapia still overperformed in 2021 as seen in his 2021 xwOBA of .279. Raimel Tapia performed worse in 2021 so this was a succesful prediction.
Christian Vazquez – C, Boston Red Sox
I predicted that Christian Vazquez would have less success in the 2021 season. The Red Sox catcher impresses in 2020 with a .345 wOBA and .801 OPS. Digging in deeper to Vazquez’s numbers allow us to see that he was lucky in 2020 with his BABIP of .341 and his xwOBA of .284 which was .061 points lower than his wOBA. In 2021, Vazquez struggled- he had a wOBA of .289 and an OPS of .659. His 2021 wOBA is on par with his 2020 xwOBA, so I believe Vazquez performed close to his true talent in 2021. Christian Vazquez performed worse in 2021 so this was a successful prediction.
Miguel Rojas – SS, Miami Marlins
I predicted that Miguel Rojas would come down to earth after his career year in 2020 and find less success in 2021. Rojas had an impressive 2020 with a wOBA of .379, OPS of .888, and wRC+ of 142. However, Rojas was a clear candidate to perform worse in 2021 with an xwOBA that was .049 points lower and a career wOBA of .295 that was .084 points lower than his 2020 wOBA. Rojas slashed .265/.322/.392 with a wOBA of .311 and OPS of .714 in 2021. Miguel Rojas performed significantly worse in 2021. Thus, this was a successful prediction.
Jackie Bradley Jr. – OF, Milwaukee Brewers
I predicted that Jackie Bradley Jr. would performs worse in 2021. JBJ has a strong 2020 campaign with a .352 wOBA and .814 OPS. He posted a xwOBA of .312 in 2020 which was .047 points less than his wOBA. He was clearly lucky in 2020 as demonstrated by his career best BABIP of .343. As predicted, Bradley had much less success in 2021, JBJ had an abysmal 2021 season with a slash line of .163/.236/.497, a wOBA of .224, and OPS of .497. JBJ is a better player than his .224 wOBA in 2021, but he is also a worse player than he showed in 2020. Jackie Bradley Jr. performed significantly worse in 2021, so this was a very successful prediction.
Jose Ramirez – 3B, Cleveland Indians
Jose Ramirez has a special 2020 season as the AL MVP runner-up, but I predicted that he would find less success in 2021. Ramirez posted a wOBA of .415, an OPS of .993, an wRC+ of 166, and SLG% of .607. He did have an xwOBA of .372 which was much lower than his wOBA in 2020 and carries a career wOBA of .359. Those numbers led me to believe that Ramirez would perform worse in 2020. The switch-hitting third basemen has very good 2021 season with a slash line of .266/.355/.538 with 36 home runs, 103 runs batted in , 27 stolen bases, a .893 OPS, and a wOBA of .372. Ramirez was very good but still considerably worse than he was in 2020. His wOBA in 2021 basically matches his xwOBA in 2020 and his xwOBA in 2021 of .374. It is clear that Ramirez performed to his true talent in 2021 and performed worse, making this a successful prediction.
Jonathan Schoop – INF, Detroit Tigers
I predicted that Jonathan Schoop would perform worse in 2021. Schoop had a good 2020 season with a wOBA of .340 and an OPS of .799. He also had an xwOBA of .294 which was .046 points lower than his wOBA. That number alone was enough to believe Schoop would perform worse in 2021 which he did. Schoop has an OPS of .756 and an wOBA of .324 in 2021. Schoop was only a little bit worse in 2021 than he was in 2020, but it was still a worse performance. Therefore, this is a successful prediction.
Unsuccessful Predictions
Carlos Santana – 1B, Kansas City Royals
I predicted that Carlos Santana, would have an improved 2021 and return to his usual impressive offensive performances. Santana hit for a respectable .316 wOBA in 2020, but he had a .368 xwOBA and in the 10 previous seasons had posted a wOBA between .330 and .380. Those numbers made it seem like Santana was destined for a better 2021; however, he posted a career worst .294 wOBA and career worst xwOBA of .335. It looks like ages has finally caught up with Santana as he was 35 years old in the 2021 season. I learned that I need to examine age going forward with my predictions because Carlos Santana performed worse in 2021. Therefore, this was an unsuccessful prediction.
Willy Adames – SS, Tampa Bay Rays/Milwaukee Brewers
I predicted that Willy Adames would perform worse in 2021 and lose his starting position to Wander Franco. Adames had his best offensive season in 2020 with a slash line of .259/.332/.481 and a wOBA of .347. The combination of his terrible strikeout percentage and low xwOBA of .305 in 2020 gave me evidence that he would perform worse in 2021 and lose his job. Adames struggled in his 41 games with the Rays with a slash line of .197/.254/.371 and a wOBA of .270 in 2021. This led to him losing his job to Wander Franco and being traded to the Brewers. On the Brewers, Adames thrived in 99 games with a slash line of .285/.366/.521 and a wOBA of .377. Adames finished 2021 with an overall wOBA of .349 and an xwOBA of .325. Adames did struggle with the Rays and lose his starting position as I predicted, but his outstanding performance with the Brewers resulted in him finishing 2021 with better numbers than he had in 2020. Therefore, this is technically an unsuccessful prediction.
