After the 2003 regular season, the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals were involved in a blockbuster trade. The deal between the two clubs sent outfielder J.D. Drew and catcher Eli Marrero from St. Louis to Atlanta in exchange for pitchers’ Ray King, Jason Marquis, and top pitching prospect Adam Wainwright.
As we all know, the Cardinals got the last laugh in this deal. Marquis proved to be a valuable rotation piece during his tenure with St. Louis, while King provided stability in the bullpen. Of course, the big piece of that deal was Wainwright, and he has gone on to become a Cardinals legend, forming a deadly battery with catcher Yadier Molina that has gone down as one of the best in baseball history, while also winning two World Series and becoming a three-time All-Star.
But what would have happened if this deal never came to fruition? What if the Cards and Braves couldn’t agree on the terms of the deal and it ultimately fell through?
This would change everything. The Cardinals obviously would not have their current ace, and he would rise to the big leagues with the Braves instead. The immediate effects are pretty big too. For starters, J.D. Drew would still be the Cardinals starting right fielder, meaning that at the trade deadline during the 2004 season, they would not have acquired Larry Walker, due to the fact that Drew put together an MVP-caliber season that year.
The Cards pitching would also not be as strong as it was in real time. This means Dan Haren would probably get more opportunities to be in the starting rotation. St. Louis also might have tried to pick up another starting pitcher in addition to Jeff Suppan. Regardless, this would mean that losing Chris Carpenter to an arm injury towards the end of the season would hurt even more.
The Cardinals would have still likely found a taker for Eli Marrero, as a certain future Hall-of-Famer was lurking in the minor leagues. That catcher was Yadier Molina, who would still make his debut at a certain point during the ‘04 regular season.
St. Louis would still win the NL Central, but it wouldn’t come as easy, and it’s possible that the Braves would have been the team to capture the NL’s top seed. Also, as a byproduct of not being able to win the division as easily as they did in real time, the NLCS between St. Louis and the Astros might’ve gone differently. Perhaps Houston would have won the Series. But no matter what happened in that series, there would still be nobody to stop the Red Sox.
From then on, things would be much different. The biggest difference we would see is in 2006, where there would be no Wainwright to fill in for Jason Isringhausen in the closer’s role when the latter went down with a hip injury. Without Wainwright, the Cardinals don’t win the World Series, even with contributions from other players. Each player on that team was indispensable in their own right, including Wainwright, and somebody else would have to take the closer’s job if not for him. Perhaps somebody like Braden Looper could have taken on closer responsibilities.
Meanwhile, in Atlanta, Wainwright would become the stud that he did in St. Louis in our timeline. Imagine a rotation featuring Wainwright, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Tim Hudson. That rotation would almost certainly rival the rotation the Phillies had in place in the early 2010s that featured Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels.
The lack of Wainwright would negatively impact the Cardinals for years to come. When Chris Carpenter began to struggle with his health, there would be nobody to pick up the slack. Wainwright was the next best option for the Cards, and without Carpenter, he shouldered the responsibilities of an ace. With Wainwright in Atlanta, St. Louis would be lacking a true ace, and wouldn’t have nearly as much success as they did in the 2010s, most likely missing the playoffs more often than not.
Even in recent years, it would affect the Cardinals. Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, and others would still play key roles, but Wainwright is a huge part of why those guys were successful. He was there to play a mentor role to the young pitchers, and without him, they wouldn’t have that veteran presence to lean on. Things would have been better in Atlanta, and Wainwright would be fulfilling his legacy in a Braves uniform.
This change would have massive ripple effects on not just the Cards and Braves, but all of baseball in general. Wainwright has been a pillar of stability in the Cardinals organization for years, and removing him from the picture would be a devastating blow for St. Louis.
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