Super Bowl in the Rear View, NFL Rumor Season has Begun Target #1: Aaron Rodgers (who else)

Here are some Aaron Rodgers rumors which have emerged (or more accurately been heaved up like puke from hack writers for click-bait purposes) so far this NFL off-season. All of these rumors have been “substantiated” by apparent “sources close to Rodgers’ or his “inner circle” or something like it:

• Rodgers will play for former Packers Offensive Coordinator and new Broncos H.C. Nathaniel Hackett in Denver
• Rodgers will be traded to the Vikings for Cousins and draft picks
• Rodgers will play for former H.C. McCarthy in Dallas
• Rodgers will be traded for Russell Wilson and play in Seattle
• Rodgers will be traded to San Francisco
• Rodgers will take Brady’s place and play for H.C. Bruce Ariens in Tampa Bay
• The Giants or Jets will trade for Rodgers because New York
• Rodgers will retire because he hates the Packers
• Rodgers will retire because he hates G.M. Brian Gutekunst and Packers’ management

This is only a partial list of rumors about Rodgers, but you get the point – the rumor mill loves Rodgers. He is, after all,  the perfect target, a once-in-a-lifetime talent (which keeps everyone clicking) but different enough (with his just-a-bit-off personality, great intellect, and his seeming reclusive way) to have almost all rumors seem possible.

This article will differ from other rumor articles in one specific way – I won’t claim to have “sources” or “knowledge” about Rodgers. This will simply be one Packers fan and stockholder’s opinion about where Rodgers will be next season. So, here I go…

History is on my side…

Prior to the start of the 2021 NFL season, I wrote this piece: https://talkingpointssports.com/nfl/rodgers-and-the-packers-was-there-really-drama-this-off-season-or-was-something-else-happening/ called “Rodgers and the Packers: Was There Really Drama this Off-season? Or Was Something Else Happening?” The thesis was that, despite the rumors about Rodgers never again playing in Green Bay, Rodgers was engaged with the Packers in a negotiation and that since we aren’t yet used to seeing negotiations play out publicly, that it looked from the outside (to all of us who are fans) as if the Packers and Rodgers were at great odds while, in actuality, they were again…negotiating.

The piece is noteworthy here, IMO,  for two reasons: 1. I was right. The Pack signed Rodgers after he had successfully negotiated his friend and former W.R. teammate, Randall Cobb, back onto the Packers’ roster. And, Aaron had negotiated his request to be included in conversations when the Packers made roster decisions that directly affected his job. 2. I think this is what is happening now; that the Packers and Rodgers are, once again, negotiating.

Certainly, smart and observant football fans could argue otherwise. ‘Didn’t you hear him thank the Packers and the fans when he gave his MVP acceptance speech?,” they may argue, ‘It sounded like a goodbye.’ Yep, I say, I agree. 

Or football fans might argue; ‘After the playoff loss, Rodgers said he doesn’t know what he will do. This sounds like he might retire,’  Yep, I say, I agree. 

There are, in fact, many things like, while appearing on the Pat McAfee show following the season, Rodgers did not mention coming back to the Packers and did not mention he’ll even be playing football ever again that could possibly point to Rodgers NOT playing in Green Bay next year. Here is what I say to all of these possible arguments…what is it that are you NOT considering?

Try this reframe of the entire current Rodgers’ situation; what if you were his agent? What would you be telling him to say? What would an agent, trying to maximize his earnings tell Aaron Rodgers to say publicly?

Considering this reframe, you, as Rodgers agent might want him to say, “I think everything is definitely on the table,” which is, in fact exactly what Rodgers told McAfee in his most recent show appearance. Now doesn’t this, and all Rodgers’ other statements, make perfect sense?  They are EXACTLY the type of ambiguous statements you would want your talented, smart, and contract savvy NFL QB, who is up for a new contract, to say –  that is, if you were his agent advising him towards a new contract and not a Packers’ fan hoping to see him resign.

Clearly, I’m making the argument here that Green Bay and Rodgers are dancing towards another deal, ‘But they don’t have the cap space!,’ you might argue. Yep, I say, I agree. However, speedbumps like cap room never stopped an NFL deal from being done especially when the two parties both want the same result. 

By the Numbers:

To further my argument we need to look into some of the details and, I hate that being an informed NFL fan in 2022 means we all have to apparently also be financial wizards (which I am not). So I’ll try to continue my argument that the Packers are negotiating with Rodgers without getting bogged down in numbers, still…

Skimming the surface of the Packers’ financial responsibilities in 2022, Rodger’s cap hit is nearly $47M. On the surface, $47M may look to be too costly for the Pack to overcome. However, look no further than last season when Tom Brady and the Buccaneers renegotiated his contract and he gave up $19M to allow the Bucs to resign other roster talent. Don’t think this idea would escape either Rodgers or the Pack who will also need to sign superstar W.R. Davante Adams, who has hitched his proverbial wagon to Rodgers. The Pack will likely franchise (bing it) Adams and a favorable Brady type of cap space gift to the Packers from Rodgers would go much of the way in making a new deal possible. And, a gift to the Packers would also certainly win Rodgers some favor with Green Bay fans, some of whom were dismayed regarding Rodgers’ handling of the Covid19 situation.

With a quick look at the Packers’ 2022 commitments, it is easy to see how moving one or two players, who may have barely played this past season could help make room for both Rodgers and Adams to resign. Za’Darius Smith is the perfect example. Smith played on 18 snaps last season (all in the Packers’ playoff loss) and while it is unlikely Green Bay will trade him and his $27M cap hit next season, Green Bay can clear up north of $15M if they release Z. 

Green Bay has 7 other players who, if released from Green Bay, could easily clear up the cash for a new Rodgers deal. Here are the 7 listed alphabetically with their cap savings (if let go): 

S Adrian Amos – $4.7M, WR Randall Cobb $6.7M, K Mason Crosby $2.4M, TE Marcedes Lewis – $2.4M, DL Dean Lowry – $4M, OLB Preston Smith $12.4M, OLB Za’Darius Smith – $15.3M, OL Billy Turner – $3.3M. That’s north of $51M savings by releasing just seven Packers, who, with the possible exception of Turner, all clearly have their best playing days behind them.

‘That’s quite a lot of roster spots to make up just to resign Rodgers,’ you might argue. Yep, I say, I agree. But consider what it takes to make the playoffs and win a super bowl – an MVP caliber QB. When you reframe the situation this way, there is no choice, and Rodgers is the only logical choice the Packers and their front office can make if they want to make another deep playoff run next season.

Signs point towards a Rodgers return:

“Okay,’ you might say, ‘you’ve made a decent couple of points about why Rodgers might return, but it isn’t enough, really convince me.’ 

Try this: Following the season Rodgers stayed in Green Bay for 2 days meeting with Matt LaFleur and, while the details of their meetings are unknown, why else would they be meeting if not planning for the future? 

Need more proof? Okay, Gutekunst already conceded to Rodgers’ requests by restructuring his deal last season, granting him Cobb, and by letting Rodgers have his say in discussions of teammates’ roster moves. If Gutekunst had any thoughts that Rodgers wouldn’t be back in the future, why would he have done any part of this? IMO he wouldn’t have, but he did, which points towards…that’s right, you guessed it… negotiation! And, a new Rodgers deal in Green Bay.

No more rumors – what did they say?

The opposite of rumor is fact. So, what did the people who make the decisions (in this case Rodgers and the Packer’s front office personnel) actually say? Rodgers has said many times in the past that he wants to play in Green Bay for the entirety of his career. He also says that things like legacy and accomplishments are important to him. And, since this is what he has said (the opposite of rumors) we have to assume that he is willing to back that up by signing a contract. “I feel like there was earnest decisions on both sides to meet in the middle and communicate. I’m very thankful to be a part of the conversations I was a part of. I feel like my opinion mattered,” Rodgers said recently of his burgeoning friendship with Gutekunst. “I definitely don’t want to be part of a rebuild,” Rodgers said after the playoff loss. Why else say this unless you are trying to steer the Packers towards a goal? And why steer towards a goal unless you plan on returning?

So what did Gutekunst and the Packers front office personnel say? Gutey has indicated that the relationship between he and Rodgers has blossomed into a friendship and that he and the entire front office staff want Rodgers back. 

Packers’ CEO Mark Murphy said last month, “[We, HC Matt LaFleur, Gutekunsk and Director of Football Ops Russ Ball] and I are all in agreement that we want Aaron to come back. He is likely to win his fourth league MVP, is the unquestioned leader of our team and is still playing at a high level at 38.” 

None of what anyone in Green Bay is saying hints to Rodgers retiring.

If my argument is correct and if the Packers and Rodgers are working towards another contract, then what will it look like? Here I am definitely entering into the unknown/mind-reader arena, so all I can do is guess. I’m guessing that Rodgers and the Packers will sign a 2-6 year (most likely 3 or 4 year) deal.

My bottom line/best guess: Rodgers signs a 4 year deal with Green Bay for $35M(ish)/year.

As a Packers fan and stockholder I say:

“Let’s hope so!”

Go Pack Go!”

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