Seven.
Floor versus ceiling. That is the debate that many league executives, coaches, and scouts, are going over as they begin their final draft planning. One week from today, the smoke will clear. There will be no more bluffs. We will see the hands of every single team in the National Football League for the 2022 NFL Draft, and how they go about improving their teams now and in the future.
In defining what makes a player risky, we are going to look at players that provide the lowest floor and the highest ceiling. Players that if they do not hit their ceiling, may end up like Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch, and many others, as NFL Draft busts.
Once again, the players listed will not be in any particular order. These will be nine players that, based off of hundreds of hours scouting and watching film, offer the lowest floors that lead to becoming draft busts. These are the nine most risky selections in the NFL Draft.
9. Travon Walker, Georgia
Let’s start out with one of my more popular opinions, shall we? I am not a fan of Georgia’s defensive lineman. For one, we don’t even know what his position really is. He could be an edge rusher, I have him listed in my rankings as an edge rusher, but he could also be a defensive tackle. To have to debate the position of a player that is being mocked as a potential top-three selection is scary.
Walker has all of the physical tools to wreak havoc at the line of scrimmage. Physical tools cannot be taught, they are a gift. Walker has all of it, and then some. Yet Walker doesn’t wow me outside of being a gym-rat who tested really well. He has very limited pass-rushing moves, doesn’t possess elite bend that is needed to win on the edge, and isn’t a three down player. Too often Walker would gas out and need to come off the field.
Walker’s ceiling is enormous given the physical acumen of the player, but I really struggled on film to see anything more than that. We have seen these kinds of players in the past unable to live up to the lofty draft expectations. I am not saying Walker will be a bust at the next level but he is the kind of player that if he doesn’t work out, he will get an entire front office fired.
8. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Sticking with shock-and-awe, I am also not a fan of Oregon’s defensive end for very different reasons compared to Walker. His explosiveness, length, and bend, are the stuff every defensive line coach and coordinator dreams of. He may walk into the NFL, without playing a down of football yet, with one of the best sets of passing-rushing traits out there.
On tape however, I question the consistency of Thibodeaux. When compared to a player like Aidan Hutchinson, Hutchinson had his best two games of 2021 in Michigan’s two biggest games of the season: in The Game against Ohio State, and then in the Big 10 Championship versus Iowa. Thibodeaux disappeared too often in 2021, and even 2020. The best version of Thibodeaux is that 2020 tape, and even then I was left with more questions about the player than answers.
While his explosiveness, length, and bend are elite, Thibodeaux relies on them way too much. I would love to see Thibodeaux grow his arsenal of pass-rushing moves, specifically his bull-rush. While effective, it still could use some work via improved hand usage. Thibodeaux’s ceiling is best edge rusher in this class, and perhaps in the National Football League, but needs to land in a situation where he has someone else next to him that can allow him to grow. Stick him with the Jets, he is afforded that chance. Stick him with the Detroit Lions or Houston Texans, oh boy.
7. Jordan Davis, Georgia
I swear, I do not have a personal vendetta against Georgia. Davis’ film was so impressive, and I loved it. He is so easy to love, and should translate to being an immovable object at the next level. I can sing his praises all day long, and I like him a lot.
Where I struggle though with players like Davis is that he is truly a one-trick pony. He will not be moved in the running game, and projects as one of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in the NFL Draft. Yet, I like my players to have some versatility and in today’s NFL coaches love guys to be able to play in all kinds of situations.
For teams that are looking for a pure run-stuffing defensive end, Davis will be your guy. Davis at 6-foot-6, weighing 360-pounds, will be a force to be reckoned with in that regard. Yet much like his Georgia teammate already mentioned on this list, Davis wore down as games wore on. Davis averaged roughly 25-30 snaps per game, and in the NFL a player with that level of conditioning won’t provide much value.
6. Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
His tape is stunning, make no mistake about it. Penning is a mega-physical run-blocker at the tackle position, and moves people at will. One of the biggest concerns with Penning is the level of competition he came up against at FCS level. It truly was a man against boys, with Penning being the crème de la crème. Normally, competition doesn’t really sway me when doing player analysis. Yet in Penning’s case, it must be discussed.
Scouts I have talked to feel Penning needs reps against top competition. On film, Penning has the tendency to block high, leaving him susceptible to being bull rushed to infinity and beyond at the next level if that keeps up. As a run-blocker, Penning was absolutely stellar. In pass protection, Penning does need to improve. His footwork is a bit shaky, his technique is just okay, but where he wins is with raw power.
Penning has a silly combination of power and flexibility. That will aid him tremendously as he translates to the NFL game. The curve he has going from the FCS to the NFL will be tremendous, but in the right situation a team can get the best out of him.
5. Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
I get the appeal with Green, I do. He may just be the most explosive interior offensive lineman in this class, with superior physicality. His versatility is a huge plus as well, having played every position for the Aggies in 2021 except center. His ability to get to the second-level in the run game is also particularly impressive.
Where I struggle with Green is what makes him a potential first round pick. When I watched his tape, I have seen so many offensive lineman like him in the past. Yes, versatility is a massive boost for a prospect’s chances to get selected. Yet with Green, I just kind of see a good lineman. Which is totally fine for the next level, but not the star that most of the draft community sees him as.
Green also had massive penalty issues throughout his career at A&M. In the NFL, that will have to be rectified quickly. I see Green as an out-and-out guard, given his prowess in the run game.
4. Charles Cross, Mississippi State
Perhaps the one player where the draft community and I differ the most. Cross carries an early round 3 grade on my board, while the consensus sees him being drafted in round 1. Sources tell me teams are in love with Cross, and some even believe he could go as high as inside the top 10. But why?
The game that stands out the most for Cross is against Alabama, where he did not allow a single pressure on 66 pass-blocking snaps. No matter who you are, that is particularly impressive. Yet with Cross, Mississippi State runs a very basic offense with not a ton of pro-style blocking concepts. His skillset is very basic, and while he may have some mastery of the basics it will only get him so far. Yes, he will have to learn on the fly and that is what worries me.
Another flaw in Cross’ game is with his footwork. On tape, Cross was inconsistent at best. A scout spoke about Cross and how on film for him, Cross had his feet “unusually tight” at the snap. This led to massive first steps, and with work this can be corrected.
When analyzing the tackles, I have Ekwonu, Neal, Penning, Raimann, Goedecke, and Lucas, all graded above Cross. Cross just isn’t my cup of tea, and he is the kind of player that is going to require a ton of work to get going in the NFL.
3. David Ojabo, Michigan
First of all, the very best goes out to Ojabo in his recovery from a torn Achilles tendon suffered at Michigan’s pro-day. Here is to coming back stronger than you were before.
Ojabo was the sidekick to Aidan Hutchinson a year ago, who is the favorite to be chosen number one overall next week. There are questions about the production of Ojabo and whether or not it stemmed from Hutchinson. I would say 50-50 on that one.
Ojabo is a liability against the run. Against Georgia, Ojabo was taken off the field entirely on run downs. That will not cut it, especially for a guy that before his injury may have even been a top 10 draft choice. Ojabo also has the tendency to totally overthink on the field, while overanalyzing as well. He also lives and dies by the speed and athleticism he possesses, with very little power in his game.
Ojabo is a very raw prospect, and will need to work on the physical side of his game if he is going to be a starting edge rusher at the next level.
2. Malik Willis, Liberty
Let me start out by saying this: I absolutely love Willis and the talent he brings to the table. He has the highest ceiling out of any quarterback in this draft class, with a cannon for an arm and wheels for legs. If Willis was a running back, he would be drafted. That is just how special Willis is as a runner.
I have Kenny Pickett ranked above Willis because of Pickett’s abilities inside the pocket, where Willis struggles. Willis has to be more cool under pressure, as at times he tries to make something out of nothing when there is still time to make a play happen downfield. Willis also keeps the ball in his hands for too long at times, and has to work on getting the ball out a bit more quickly.
I also don’t love how Willis looks directly at his targets. His eyes give away where the ball is going, making it so simple for any competent defensive back to potentially make a play on the ball. He got away with it in college given the lack of competition, but that will not work in the NFL. Willis is gaining a ton of steam as the potential first quarterback selected. I believe Willis needs to sit before he can take the reins of a pro-style offense.
1. George Pickens, Georgia
Another Bulldog, wow, sorry Georgia fans. Personally, this is one I just truly do not understand. People in the scouting community are holding their hats on the 2019 film which saw Pickens absolutely dominate in the SEC, but then take a massive step back in 2020. 2021 film is limited due to a torn ACL suffered last spring, only coming back at the end of the regular season.
Pickens may be the ultimate boom-or-bust selection. Being touted as an early day 2 pick, Pickens does have the tools to be a good NFL receiver. He is a physical receiver with superior hands and bully’s people at the catch point, all pluses. He projects as an outside receiver in the NFL, but what was once a shoo-in is far from a formality now.
Pickens has had some disciplinary issues whilst at Georgia, being suspended for violating team rules to go along with being thrown out of a game due to fighting during his freshman year in 2019. Pickens is not the guy that will take the top off of a defense, nor is he the most polished route runner in the world. Pickens comes off as a Kenny Golladay type, with a superb ceiling and a very limited floor.
