Flash back to March 19th of this year. The Phillies had just inked Nick Castellanos to a five-year deal valuing the All-Star at $20 million a year. Three days before that the Phillies signed slugger Kyle Schwarber to the roster. Even stretch your mind back to January of last year when the longest awaited re-signing of J.T. Realmuto (The Best Catcher In Baseball) was cemented. Combine all that with an MVP season for Bryce Harper and Cy Young worthy year for Zack Wheeler. What’d you think? Did you think this team was destined for the playoffs and possibly an NL East victory? If you did then you’re not alone as the majority of Philadelphia shared your opinion. Now we’re sixteen games into the season and the Phillies are 6-10, sitting in second to last place for the division. What is going on?
To perform any kind of analysis on this franchise you first have to understand what Dave Dombrowski’s blueprint was for this year’s roster. The two main elements were big bats and solid starting pitchers. After last season wrapped up, the Phillies broke many ugly records involving defensive errors and bullpen blown games. Dombrowski’s plan was to bring enough offensive explosion so that defensive errors would never decide the game. Historically, baseball teams that leave behind fielding in place of offense struggle to go deep in the playoffs. Dombrowski planned to endure, hoping that a lineup including
Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Segura, and Hoskins would break open most games leaving plenty of insurance for any defensive shortcomings. Additionally, he added names like Kyle Gibson late in the 2021 season and closers like Brad Hand to sharpen up the bullpen. That plan, on paper, sounds like it just may work in today’s league.
However, many assumptions are made in this plan and if those assumptions fail to manifest then this team could be in for a rough 2022. Dombrowski assumed Aaron Nola would return to ace level play while the Cy Young hopeful in Wheeler would only improve. Additionally, this team needs Bryce Harper to not only be the MVP of the National League again but also be better than his already incredible 2021 season. Another assumption was that both Didi and Realmuto would vastly improve at the plate compared to last year. Didi with a career-worst year in 2021, needed to go back to the solid pull-hitter that we all saw him as in Yankee pinstripes. Realmuto was efficient last year but still behind what we’ve seen him do in years past. A vital part of this plan was their return to near .300 level plate performance.
With a small, but reasonable sample size of sixteen games let’s take a look at how Dombrowski’s roster is shaping up. As of today, the Phillies are 5th in Major League Baseball with a team average of .251. Additionally, the Phillies are 9th in OPS at .726. So where are the wins? Despite being ranked high in several hitting categories, the Phillies are only 14th in the league for runs per game. Still, that kind of offensive production should leave this team close to or above .500, so what’s the issue? As I mentioned before, Dombrowski threw some heavy assumptions in his plan including the pitching potential of his starters. Currently, the Phillies pitching staff is ranked 26th in all of baseball with a team ERA of 4.6. Mix that with the Phillies averaging just over one error for every two games, which of course is leading to additional unearned runs. Put simply, the offense isn’t overcoming the pitching and defensive struggles.
What’s next, you might ask? This “overpowered” offense needs to break out of its shell and start lighting up this league. Dombrowski’s entire plan depends on the resurgence of this All-Star cast to dominate the plate. The Phillies need to shoot up in runs per game, averaging at least over 5. Additionally, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola need to take ownership of this pitching room and start setting the bar high. Yes, it’s early and there isn’t a reason to panic just yet. However, it won’t be long until the Philly Phaithful are calling for Girardi’s head. This team is made up of too many special players for the season to not end in the playoffs. Let’s start playing ball.
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