It is officially crunch time in the college basketball season with March approaching like a speeding train. Many teams made big moves this past week which shook things up all across the country, including the first release of the top-16 seeds for the NCAA Tournament bracket with Gonzaga holding the top spot. Gonzaga is not the only team making big moves, as Texas Tech continues to show the college basketball world that they are the real deal and another big week for Arkansas has them near the top of the SEC standings. I also take a look at the bubble and see which teams are trending up and which teams are trending down as the season hits the home stretch.
Gonzaga sits as the Top Dog
Mark Few has his Gonzaga team playing like the best team in the country, dismantling everyone in their path in the WCC. The Bulldogs have won 16 games in a row, all by double digits, and have also won 32 straight games in conference play, far and away the best mark in the country. While Gonzaga does not play in a Power Six conference, they do play in a conference that will be a three or four bid league. There is no question this Gonzaga team can make a very deep run in the NCAA Tournament and are the current betting favorites to win their first-ever championship.
It comes as no surprise Gonzaga was the unanimous number one team in the AP Poll this week, especially after the tournament committee announced their initial top-16 seeds — a list that had Gonzaga at the top. This team arguably has the best starting five in the country and it starts in the front court, with not one but two projected All-Americans in Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Timme has a legit shot at winning the Wooden Award this season as college basketball’s best player and Holmgren is a projected top-3 pick in this year’s NBA draft. They combine for 34.4 points per game and will be a nightmare for opposing defenses in March.
For a team that lost two players who were selected in the top-15 of the 2021 NBA draft, this Gonzaga team has become a team that does not rebuild, but instead reloads. They have one of their toughest tests of the conference season coming on Thursday night when they travel to San Francisco to take on the Dons, a projected tournament team. If they can take care of business over the next few weeks and keep their winning streak alive, they will be the top overall seed in the tournament for the second straight season.
Texas Tech is the Real Deal
Many thought once former head coach Chris Beard packed his bags at the end of last season and left to coach across the state at Texas, Texas Tech would fall off. That has not been the case. Not only has Texas Tech not taken a step backward but many would argue they have taken a step forward under first year head coach Mark Adams. The Red Raiders sit as the ninth ranked team in the country and are coming off another huge Big 12 win on the road against Texas and their former coach.
With just under three weeks to go until Selection Sunday, Texas Tech was a 3-seed in the first release of the top-16 seeds, but they could have moved to the 2-seed line with their win on Saturday. Whichever number this team has next to its name heading into March Madness is irrelevant, because they have shown they can win any place, any time, and against any team.
Four of the five starters for the Red Raiders average double figures and their rotation runs nine deep. They were without one of their stars, Kevin McCullar last week and it did not seem to faze them one bit. Having that type of depth will be key down the stretch and it is something few teams possess this late in the season. To finish off the regular season, Texas Tech will play three unranked matchups in the Big 12, two of which are at home. Texas Tech has shown they could make another Final Four run and cut down the nets when it is all said and done.
The Hogs Continue to Eat
One of the hottest teams in college basketball right now is Arkansas, winning 11 of their last 12 games including a win against Auburn who was the top ranked team in the country at the time. Eric Musselman has his Razorbacks playing their best basketball at the right time, coming off another huge win against 16th ranked Tennessee last Saturday.
Early on this season it was evident Arkansas was missing the presence of Moses Moody, the star freshman guard who departed for the NBA and was a one and done lottery pick. They have learned to play as a more cohesive unit as the season has progressed and it starts with senior guard JD Notae. Notae leads the team in scoring and is second in the conference with 18.5 points per game. He has had big games when the lights shine the brightest, including 28 against Auburn two weeks ago.
Notae and his fellow senior in the backcourt, Stanley Umude, are two of four players averaging double figures for this team. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had the Razorbacks as a 6-seed before their win on Saturday. Arkansas finishes their season with two of their four remaining matchups on the road against ranked teams, including a game this Saturday against sixth ranked Kentucky.
Bubble Watch
With the regular season starting to wind down, every team’s ability to improve their resume continues to shrink, as one win or one loss could be the difference of being on the right or wrong side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi currently has Loyola Chicago, San Francisco, Memphis, and Michigan as his last four teams in and San Diego State, SMU, BYU, and Oklahoma as his first four teams out.
One team that not only stayed on the right side of the bubble but got themselves off the bubble for the time being is Florida, who beat the second ranked Auburn Tigers at home on Saturday afternoon. This was a monumental win for a Gators team teetering on the bubble for over a month and this win puts them in a great position to make the dance.
Tyree Appleby and Colin Castleton were huge in the win, scoring 45 of the Gators 63 points. Florida finishes off the season with two home games and two road games. Both road games will be against ranked opponents including a game in Lexington at 6th ranked Kentucky to finish the regular season. Going 2-2 should be good enough for Florida to get an at-large bid and not have to worry about making a deep run in the SEC tournament.
One team headed in the wrong direction is Loyola Chicago. Loyola suffered a very difficult loss on Saturday night at home to Drake and they now sit as one of Lunardi’s “last four in.” The Ramblers finish the regular season this week with three games, including a game at first place UNI on Saturday. Loyola has struggled to be consistent from game to game and seem to look different every time they take the floor. They will need to win out and make it to at least the conference title game to have a chance at an at-large bid, but with bid stealers coming they might need to win the Missouri Valley tournament and get in as an automatic qualifier.
There are 365 games this week with a number of them between teams on the bubble. as well as six ranked vs ranked matchups. Just two weeks remain in the regular season and a short 19 days until the bracket is released so it is make it or break it time for many teams around the country.
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