There are less than 12 hours to go until the 2022 calendar flips to March, but the madness has already started. On Saturday seven of the top-10 teams in the AP Poll suffered a loss, including every team ranked 1-6. This is the first time that seven of the top-10 teams lost on the same day, perhaps foreshadowing what we will see in a few weeks at the NCAA Tournament.
One of the teams to take down a top-6 opponent was Baylor, getting a big win over Kansas as they continue their quest to repeat. USC is 25-4 and they continue to be disrespected nationally, but a big week lies ahead for the Trojans to bolster their resume and the bubble continues to fluctuate as time is running out for those on the bubble to make a statement. Just 13 days remain until the field of 68 is set, and conference tournaments will begin this week.
Can Baylor Repeat?
Baylor was one of the teams to pull off a win against a team in the top-6, beating Kansas 80-70 on their home floor on Saturday night. With the win Baylor sits at 24-5 overall and 12-4 in conference while moving from the 2-seed line to the 1-seed line, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. The Bears still have a chance to win at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title by beating Texas and Iowa State this week, but they have their eyes set on a bigger prize, another National Championship.
After starting the year 15-0 it looked like Baylor was the favorite to win it all for the second straight season, but they followed that great start with a 4-4 stretch, dropping them from one in the polls to 10 in less than a month. They have shown great ability to rebound from losses and that is why they sit as a projected 1-seed going into the final week of the regular season.
Experience has played a big role in the Bears quest to repeat, and they have that experience even after losing Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Mark Vital from last year’s team. Even with those losses Baylor returned a lot of last year’s roster for this season, including Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer, and James Akinjo.
Drew Scott has turned this Baylor program into a power house, one that does not rebuild but simply reloads on talent. After losing four key contributors from last year’s championship team, guys like LJ Cryer and Kendall Brown have stepped in and played huge roles for this Baylor team. A top-2 seed is all but locked up, and if Baylor can play like they did on Saturday night against Kansas, they have the talent to win back-to-back titles.
A Big Week Lies Ahead for USC
Despite a 25-4 record USC finds themselves ranked outside of the top-15 of the AP Poll and if the tournament were to start today the Trojans would be a 6-seed, according to Joe Lunardi. Some of the criticism that USC faces is warranted, as they did not play a very difficult non-conference schedule and the Pac-12 is extremely top heavy, but they find a way to win games even when they do not have their A-game, leading to the most wins in school history.
USC is ranked 26th in the NET and 32nd in the KenPom with a 4-1 record in Quad 1 games. Both of those rankings can change this week with second ranked Arizona visiting the Galen Center tomorrow night and a matchup with 17th ranked UCLA at Pauley Pavilion on Saturday. Losing these games would hurt the Trojans resume but they would still be in a good position going into the Pac-12 tournament to wear white jerseys in the first round. If USC can win one or both of these games they can drastically improve their resume and put themselves in position at a top-4 seed.
The problem for Andy Enfield’s team this year has been inconsistency. They beat UCLA a couple of weeks ago without one of their best players in Isaiah Mobely, but then struggled against one of the worst Power 6 teams in the country last Thursday, beating Oregon State in double overtime. Even in games where USC does not have their best they are able to find a way to get the job done. That works against teams like Oregon State and Cal, but it will not fly against top teams in the country like Arizona and UCLA.
Tomorrow night will be a sellout when the Wildcats come to town and the Trojans will look to feed off their fans like they have done all season. It will be a sellout on Saturday as well, but it will be at Pauley Pavilion for UCLA as the Trojans look to make it six straight wins against their archrival. USC will rely on their big three of Isaiah Mobely, Boogie Ellis, and Drew Peterson to be the big playmakers this week and help the Trojans improve their resume before heading to Las Vegas.
Bubble Watch
As it currently stands Joe Lunardi has Memphis, Indiana, Rutgers, and Loyola Chicago as his last four teams in and BYU, San Diego State, SMU, and Oregon as his first four teams out. Every team on and around this list has a huge week or two ahead of them, with one win or one loss possibly being the difference in dancing or playing in the NIT.
Rutgers and Indiana both sit on the right side of the bubble with two weeks to go and the biggest game of the season to this point for both these teams comes on Wednesday night when they meet at Assembly Hall. The winner of this game will put themselves in a great position to be in the field of 68 and not have to do as much in the Big Ten tournament.
Even with three straight losses Rutgers remains on the right side of the bubble and that can be attributed to their play on their home floor, with wins over Purdue, Illinois, and Ohio State just to name a few. Wednesday night is close to a must win game and they will have another matchup that they need to win on Sunday at home against Penn State.
Indiana got two much needed wins last week and almost got a third over Ohio State last Monday, a win that may have taken them off the bubble and locked them into a tournament spot. It is not as much of a must win for Indiana on Wednesday because of the opportunity for the Hoosiers to beat Purdue on Saturday, but it’s close. Winning on Wednesday and one game in the Big Ten tournament will likely solidify Indiana in the field of 68 for the first time since 2016.
So much is yet to be decided before the bracket is set less two weeks from now and the madness is just beginning. Eight games between ranked opponents and 10 tickets to the dance will be punched this week as we approach Selection Sunday.
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