This week’s College Football Picks.
#9 Miami at Virginia Tech (-2)
Somebody explain to me why the high-flying, #9 Canes are an underdog against a team that just lost at home to Liberty? I suppose Vegas is giving the Hokies a boost due to the game being in Blacksburg, but even a quasi home environment isn’t enough to make this game close. Virginia Tech is awful on defense, giving up over 460 yards per game; Not a good sign with D’Enriq King coming to town. Miami wins this one in a rout.
The Pick: Miami ML
#6 Florida (-17.5) vs. Arkansas (O/U 60.5)
Credit where credit is due; Arkansas are a good football team. Sam Pittman has worked wonders in his first season in Fayetteville, giving a dreadful program a major boost and having the Hogs play excellent football week in and week out. Unfortunately, coach Pittman tested positive for COVID-19 right before Florida comes to town. Best wishes for a speedy recovery to Pittman, but his absence only creates another major issue in a matchup that already heavily favors the Gators. Florida looks simply unstoppable on offense right now, and despite Arkansas’ above-average defense, I expect Florida to put up their usual 40+ in this one. The Gators’ defense still looks iffy, however, so the 60.5 number is too low for me. I see the Hogs scoring somewhere in the 20s to push this one over, and I’d stay away from the -17.5 in fear of a late back door cover.
The Pick: Over 60.5
#13 Wisconsin (-4.5) vs. Michigan
This line is insulting to Wisconsin. Michigan is an all around bad football team, and despite the Badgers only playing one game before a long layoff due to COVID, they are league better than the Wolverines in every phase. The quarterback situation is still unclear with Graham Mertz still in COVID protocol and is 50/50 to play. Danny Vanden Boom will make his first career start if Mertz can’t go, but it shouldn’t matter either way. Michigan has no pass rush and no ball skills in the secondary on defense. Combine that with an offense that has fallen off a cliff since the season opening win against Minnesota, and I just don’t see any scenario in which this game is competitive, even in the big house.
The Pick: Wisconsin -4.5
#11 Oregon (-10) vs. Washington State (O/U 57.5)
The Pac 12’s best hope for the playoff travels to Pullman for what should be a battle of two high flying offenses. It took Oregon a while to get going last weekend against Stanford, but once they did, they showed why many are bullish on their chances of winning the abbreviated Pac 12 this year. Washington State on the other hand surprised a lot with their road win over a salty Oregon State team. Many expected the Cougars to take a major step back with Mike Leach leaving for Mississippi State, but the offense continued to roll even without the master of the air raid on the sidelines. You saw a major shift in offensive philosophy with the Cougars showing incredible balance with 227 yards passing and 229 yards rushing. Defensively, both these teams gave up over 400 yards to the opposition this week, so the 57.5 feels quite low. I expect Oregon’s defense to bounce back a bit overall, but even still they are bound to give up points to an offense that operates in the manner that Washington State does. A comfortable Oregon win and the over seems like the most likely outcome.
The Pick: Oregon -10 and Over 57.5
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