The Bird’s Nest: A Year in Review

Hello there! Welcome back! I have missed all of you. The Bird’s Nest serves as my sort of cathartic release, one which I desperately need. 

I have been meaning to write this column for a while, to review the fantasy season that was. A lot of people will say thank goodness it is over, myself included. Yet, we will all miss the thrills and spills of fantasy football for the next few months until we all get ready to go at it again in September. 

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Rams on their triumph in Super Bowl LVI. Matthew Stafford gets his long awaited ring, very much deserved. Cooper Kupp caps off his triple crown season with a Super Bowl championship. Aaron Donald adds to his already stunning career resume, one which will now most certainly end up immortalized in Canton, Ohio. 

As we fist bump and say peace out to fantasy football 2021, let’s reflect. Let’s go back and have a look at what we all can learn from the year that was, and be assured there is a ton of it. 

Quarterbacks

When dissecting the quarterback position, there is one thing that always comes to mind. Why do people always insist on taking quarterbacks in unnecessarily high spots in drafts? To me, it makes absolutely no sense. To reflect on this, let’s have a look at the top 5 drafted quarterbacks from a year ago:

• Patrick Mahomes
• Josh Allen
• Kyler Murray
• Lamar Jackson
• Dak Prescott 

Out of those five, only Mahomes and Allen finished in the top 5. Allen finished at 1, given his incredible rushing and passing totals. Mahomes finished at 4, with a very bang average end to the season. When looking at who else finished in the top 5, you have Justin Herbert at 2, Tom Brady at 3, and MVP Aaron Rodgers at 5. Herbert just missed being drafted in the top 5, Brady was top 10, and Rodgers was top 10. I cannot continue to stress this to fantasy managers, taking a quarterback above round 4 or 5 in a single quarterback set-up is pointless to me. 

When doing my preliminary rankings for 2022, I already have earmarked 17 quarterbacks that I would feel comfortable rolling with in 12 team leagues. 8 of those quarterbacks can be had in the double digit rounds, according to early mock draft data provided by Fantasy Football Calculator. When having this discussion amongst peers, a question I always ask is this. When a major injury occurs to a running back, what happens. Odds are, you are doomed. Same for wide receiver, and same for tight end, if it is a top tier option. For quarterbacks, I do not see the same doom. 

To me, quarterback is the most replaceable position in fantasy football. Yes, losing a top 5 QB option is a blow, but that production can be easily replaced. From this year alone, fantasy managers were without Prescott, Jackson, and Murray for extended periods of time. These managers, in one quarterback leagues, could have replaced those three with the likes of Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Ryan Tannehill. My personal approach with the quarterback position is very simple: find the guy that will give you a solid week-to-week floor, yet still maintain that massive upside while having safety at the core positions. The way I construct my lineups is around a locked and loaded running back group, and a steady wide receiver group. Having an elite, top-tier quarterback that is drafted in round 5 or higher simply isn’t the way I do it. 

Running Backs 

Ah, the running back position. Some will go and say the most important position in fantasy, I would be one of those people. How we analyze the position moving forward is key to getting the best options for our fantasy teams, and we can’t go much further in our analysis without discussing the injured running backs. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, I am looking right at you. As a community, we keep coming up with sorry excuses for the oft-injured options, and this isn’t just for McCaffrey and Barkley. But, they are two of the most expensive options at the position, two first round running backs from a year ago. 

How can we navigate the position when we are constantly looking at running backs with spotty injury records? Well, the simple answer here is don’t take them. I won’t be taking McCaffrey or Barkley in any draft of mine this upcoming draft season. The simple reason being that these two players will continue to be expensive, with McCaffrey carrying an ADP(Average Draft Position) of 1.5 right now, and Barkley carrying an ADP of 2.4. That is way too price for McCaffrey, who missed most of 2020 and 2021, along with Barkley who also missed large chunks of the last two seasons. 

I understand the allure of players like McCaffrey and Barkley. At the peak of their powers, these two are fantasy game changers. These are players that can, and will, define any season for teams. Get them at their best, and you are an immediate championship contender. Get them like they have been for the last two years, and you have a very, very expensive problem on your hands. 

The question to answer as well is what to do if you have this expensive problem on your hands and things go awry. The answer is, you can’t do much with them. Now, if you were to get a trade offer at fair value for the players, of course you go ahead and trade them. However, as is often the case with injured players, we all know that “fair value” goes out the window. When both McCaffrey and Barkley were injured a year ago, fantasy managers were lucky if they were to get maybe fifty cents on the dollar for either of them. The managers of these players would never feel comfortable trading them at such a discount in fear that they may miss out on the triumphant return of the glory days. But are those glory days gone? 

In what has become such a volatile position in recent years, it is so vitally important for fantasy managers to get a hold on running backs that can be relied on every week, not running backs that we hope will be available every week. While we have seen the best of McCaffrey and Barkley, we may never get the full versions of them back. 

Wide Receivers 

The rookie wideout wave continued in 2021, with a whole host of stars stepping onto the scene and making an immediate fantasy impact. Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Elijah Moore, all contributed in positive ways for their fantasy managers in only year one of their careers. This comes less than a year after Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman, and Tee Higgins, all also contributed to their managers’ success in 2020 as rookies. 

What to make of this immediate impact from rookie receivers? Well, it may just happen again in 2022. Looking at the prospects from this upcoming class, wide receiver is absolutely loaded. Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, to name a few, all have a chance to make immediate impacts for their respective clubs next year wherever they land. Williams is of course dealing with a torn ACL, so his arrival may be a bit later than the others. 

When analyzing these rookie receivers and the ones who have panned out early on, it is important to note how they are all going to stable offenses and becoming immediate options. Chase, with the help of college teammate Joe Burrow, lit up opposing defenses this past year and his meteoric rise will see him be a 2nd round pick in drafts next year at the least. Waddle and Smith also got to go be with their old Alabama teammates in Miami and Philadelphia. St. Brown became the number one option on a struggling Lions team, securing double digit targets in his last six contests to end 2021. These rookies have come in locked and loaded, with teams also showing the abilities to trust these receivers early on. 

Now for every Chase, Waddle, St. Brown, there is also Jalen Reagor, Jerry Jeudy, and Kadarius Toney. It is important to state that not all rookie receivers are going to immediately come out firing, these are lottery ticket selections after all. You draft these young players in the hopes that they can be something for your fantasy rosters, but nothing is ever promised. 

Be mindful however, as this is year two of the trend. By now, the most astute fantasy managers will have caught on, and we may see this next class of receivers drafted way higher than they should be. Do not fall for the trap, only select these rookies if they are in great positions to produce and at a price that is affordable to you. 

Tight Ends

Coming into the year, I had the same philosophy as in year’s past with this position: The top guys are too expensive – I am just going to stream. Well, if you were able to get your hands on Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz, or Hunter Henry, you made out well in the streaming game. If you didn’t, you were left stranded. 

In 2022, I am making a drastic change in my overall approach with the position. I feel now it is absolutely imperative to have a top option. Why do you ask? Well, I will reflect on a personal example from this year. I had a roster with Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, and Davante Adams. The top three receivers in fantasy from 2021, all on one team. At tight end however, I was flip-flopping between Mike Gesicki and Pat Friermuth. At the end of the day, the lack of tight end is what cost me here. Now the flip is another team I had, a 7 win playoff team that made it to a championship on the back of Mark Andrews. 

I never was the guy that believed tight end made a huge difference in fantasy football, but now I am. Having one of the top dogs is such an advantage on your opponents, that a big week from a tight end could be what decides a matchup. I still believe however that the price of Travis Kelce in round 2 is a bit obscene, but I will happily dive in on Mark Andrews at the start of round 3, or Darren Waller in the middle of round 3. 
Now that isn’t to say that those who opt to stream the position are dead in the water, because they aren’t. A spot where a tight end streamer can look for sustained production is in Dallas if Schultz does not return. In seasons that Dak Prescott has completed, at least one tight end has registered at least 90 targets in every single one of those seasons. As of now, Dallas has Blake Jarwin and Sean McKeon as their two options for next year, so expect the Cowboys to go and bring in an option that could be a solid option to have a good year in 2022 for streamers.