It sure has been a minute, hasn’t it? Since we last spoke, I have been jumping all over the sports world. Talking baseball, talking college basketball, even the NFL Draft, with more coverage of the draft coming in the next two weeks. Now, we get back to our bread and butter, fantasy football, our home turf.
So what has happened since the last time I wrote one of these silly things? Well, I have officially joined the FantasyPros consensus as an expert ranker. This has been a dream of mine since I first started in sports media, and being able to do what I do in a community that houses the biggest names in the industry is surreal. Pinch me, I still am dreaming.
This list is bound to change over the next couple of weeks once the NFL Draft has come and gone. I have been writing on other things for Talking Points Sports, but starting July 1st, I will be focusing strictly on fantasy football for the site. While I love my other sports, this is what I am most passionate about. On Talking Points Sports, expect to get 2 or 3 articles a week from me discussing all things fantasy. I will cover things for beginners, and for experts. This is a community for everyone, and I want to ensure that everyone’s needs are fulfilled. As we get closer to drafts, my main goal in what I do is to make sure every one of you is fully prepared to tackle (pun intended) the rigors of drafts, of fantasy, of everything this wonderful game encapsulates.
We will go position by position and detail the single best values available right now from half PPR scoring (point per reception). Along with using my rankings from FantasyPros, we will also be using live ADP data from the National Fantasy Championships (NFC). Thank you to both publications for their shared data to help make this article possible. Please, go check them out for any additional fantasy research.
Quarterbacks
When going through the ranks and calculating projections, to narrow down one singular quarterback for the best value was quite difficult. As an exercise I tend to do on my own, I like to count how many quarterbacks I would feel could win my teams a championship this season. Last year, I had earmarked 22 quarterbacks I would feel good about. This year, the number is just about the same, there are 21 quarterbacks I would feel excellent about starting right away.
The reasoning for this is quite simple, and it all comes down to preference. In how I draft, I do not feel taking a quarterback early on is a way to craft a successful fantasy team. There is simply much more value in taking a premium position (running back or wide receiver) in rounds 4 or 5 over a luxury pick like a quarterback at that spot in a draft.
The proof is in the pudding, as they say. When evaluating 2021 stats, Josh Allen finished as the QB1 with his immense arm talent coupled with supreme rushing ability. In order to have taken Allen, you needed to draft him in round 4 a year ago. It paid off in a big way if you did, but at what cost to your roster? Instead of taking Allen in round 4, who finished with 417.7 fantasy points, you could have taken Justin Herbert in round 7 or 8 who finished just 22 points behind Allen with 395.6 fantasy points. The QB12 from a year ago, Ryan Tannehill, finished with 282.3 fantasy points, averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game. While that isn’t elite, it is more than satisfactory on a week-to-week basis and won’t hurt your fantasy teams. Something to consider for this season when you are staring down Allen or Patrick Mahomes early in drafts.
So who is the ultimate value for quarterbacks right now? For me, it is Philadelphia Eagles starter Jalen Hurts. According to NFC data, Hurts is being selected 81st overall, at time of writing, in round 9. Hurts is going behind Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford. While I love Stafford and like Rodgers and Wilson, Hurts gives you what those three do not: the rushing upside. A year ago, Hurts accumulated 784 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores. The next closest QB to that number was, the aforementioned, Ryan Tannehill.
Hurts will frustrate fantasy managers as a passer, only accumulating 3,144 yards with 16 TDs a year ago. Where Hurts makes his money is being that dual-threat option, with that elite rushing upside coming with a fantastic week-to-week floor. I think the market will start to rise on Hurts as we get closer to drafts, there is simply no way Hurts can be drafted at his current QB12 spot according to NFC. Hurts ranks as my QB10 right now, and I am tempted to move him higher over guys like Joe Burrow, who is being ridiculously overdrafted right now as the QB4, and Dak Prescott.
Running Backs
Trying to navigate the group of running backs is like walking through a field full of landmines. Make one bad step, and your season could be over. It is so important to have a reliable crew of running backs to choose from over the course of the season, as you as a fantasy manager must make every RB pick count.
While there aren’t many standout values, I love Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills running back and NFC’s RB34, at his current round 10 ADP. Singletary made the Bills backfield his own towards the end of 2021, with both Zack Moss and Matt Breida taking back seats to Singletary. Singletary gained full control of the Bills lead running back role in Week 12, and didn’t look back. He averaged 17.1 touches over the last 7 regular season games, with 6 touchdowns in the last 4 games of the regular season for the Bills.
The Bills did sign Duke Johnson Jr. during the off-season, capping some of Singletary’s PPR upside. Not known as a true pass catcher anyway, Singletary still has plenty of appeal in round 10. If Singletary can secure regular 1st and 2nd down work in the running game for Buffalo, and manage to find some work on 3rd down whilst being the team’s go-to-guy in the red zone, Singletary at 91 overall could be a steal for managers.
I currently have Singletary as my RB26 in half PPR scoring. If the Bills can roll with the current trio they have now into the regular season, I will be very confident about Singletary being a guy that must be had at his current ADP. If the Bills do draft a running back however, which sources tell Talking Points Sports and I they are considering Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III, I will be out on Singletary.
Wide Receivers
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper going as the WR24 and being taken at 60th overall is a crime. Now, I understand general concerns about the availability of Deshaun Watson headed into the season following his year-long hiatus due to sexual assault allegations levied against him. If Watson is suspended, which I am hearing is going to be the case, the question then becomes for how long.
The Cleveland Browns would not give a record contract to a player that will be suspended for the entirety of his first season with his new team. My guess for this situation is Watson is handed a 4-6 game suspension, with the impact of that suspension coming down to which side of that range he gets. Closer to the 4 game suspension, I will feel great about taking Cooper, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt at their current half PPR prices. 5 games, I will admittedly be iffy. 6 games, I will be completely out.
What makes Cooper so appealing in this situation is the offense he is joining. With Baker Mayfield, I would not be as enthused. With Watson however, the Browns would not shell out substantial draft pick compensation to run the same exact run-heavy offense like they have done for the last few years under HC Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland is going to open up their offense with Watson at the helm, and Cooper stands to gain.
When doing my various projections, none stunned me quite like Cooper’s. I have Cooper projected for 88 catches, 1,150 yards, and 7 touchdowns. With those projections, that is good enough for Cooper to be a top 15 receiver. Cooper is currently being drafted behind Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, and someone I love Amon-Ra St. Brown. That just doesn’t make any sense to me, and I will take Cooper over all three of those guys with supreme confidence on draft day. Cooper currently sits at WR19 in my rankings.
Tight Ends
Oh man, do I have a bone to pick with this one. All bias aside, please explain to me why on earth Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz is not getting more love at the thin tight end position? NFC data checks him in at TE7, not a problem that is where I have him in my ranks, but 89th overall? Really?
I am going to give you a stat regarding Dak Prescott that I want all of you to remember for your drafts. In every season that Dak Prescott has completed for Dallas, at least one tight end on the Cowboys roster has had at least 90 targets. Every. Last. One. Also factor in that the Cowboys are down Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson, and Blake Jarwin, totaling 182 targets abandoned in Dallas. Just the amount of available targets alone that are now opened up all lead towards Schultz outperforming his current ADP by a lot. This all goes in line with saying that I do expect Dallas to spend an early pick at receiver to come in and join CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup as the team’s number three receiver. The Cowboys had also been previously linked with Brandin Cooks before he signed a two-year extension to remain with the Houston Texans.
While Schultz may not be the sexiest name out there, he is going to give you a steady week-to-week floor with upside to boot. Think about it this way, after guys not named Andrews, Kelce, Kittle, Waller, maybe Pitts too, all you are hoping for out of a TE starter is a touchdown week-to-week. Well, what if I told you that Schultz even with a pretty bang average 10.0 fantasy points per game (half PPR) still finished as the number 3 tight end in fantasy a year ago with Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb all on the roster, with Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott stealing some receptions at the running back spot for Dallas as well, Schultz is criminally undervalued right now.
I have Schultz as my TE7, I agree with the drafters on that. However, I have Schultz going 69th overall in round 7 at the moment. This is a player you can count on to get you that consistency at the tight end position and if I am unable to nab Andrews or Kelce in my drafts, Schultz is the guy I will be targeting. Everywhere I can possibly get him, I want some Dalton Schultz in my life.
