Twice in one week, yowie wowie! Now this is something. On Tuesday, we discussed the best fantasy draft values in this very early pre-draft process. Best draft values are determined by players that are projected to outperform where they are being drafted right now, while of course understanding that the rankings will significantly change over the next few weeks.
Today, we look at the worst. These are the players that are being drafted way too high at their current positions. Players that, in my estimation, stand no chance of being able to produce at their current draft levels. Think of it as silly season, and boy are there a lot to get through.
Once again, we will go position by position and detail the single worst values available right now from half PPR scoring (point per reception). Along with using my rankings from FantasyPros, we will also be using live ADP data from the National Fantasy Championships (NFC). Thank you to both publications for their shared data to help make this article possible. Please, go check them out for any additional fantasy research.
Quarterbacks
This is an easy one to call, and it isn’t particularly close. Joe Burrow, NFC’s QB4, is currently being selected 47th overall in round 5. Please, for the love of all that is Holy, explain to me how this makes any sense. While the Cincinnati offense is a treasure trove for fantasy managers to go and invest in, the hype surrounding the Bengals is too hot for my liking.
In 2021, Burrow was incredible for fantasy. In 16 starts, Burrow threw for over 4,600 yards with 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. So why doesn’t Burrow get more love from me? Well, for one I am very much calling for mass statistical regression in 2022 from most of the Bengals in general. I am not super high on Ja’Marr Chase (especially at his current 8th overall price tag), Tee Higgins is shooting up draft boards as well based on hype and hype alone, and Joe Mixon will be a round 1 or 2 selection given he is a running back. I am not sure Chase repeats what he did a year ago, Higgins has a chance to break out but I wouldn’t want to bank on that early in drafts, and Mixon will be a steady option at running back if he can avoid the injury bug.
Back to Burrow, with last year’s numbers showing an alarming statistical flaw in properly assessing Burrow. The Cincy signal-caller led the NFL a year ago in yards per pass attempt with 8.9, with a 6.5% touchdown rate. To put this into perspective, Deshuan Watson is the active leader in this category with 8.3, and only he and Patrick Mahomes average more than 7.8 yards per pass attempt out of the active quarterbacks for their careers. Mahomes is also the active leader in touchdown rate, with a 6.4% TD rate.
Say Burrow regresses back to his mean for both of those numbers in 2022. It is going to require an almost herculean effort for Burrow to even come close for him to match, if not better, his 2021 numbers. If both his YPA and TD rate numbers do come down, Burrow would need somewhere in the range of 38-42 pass attempts per game over a 17 game season to match what he did a year ago. In my estimation, Burrow simply will not be able to do it. I have Burrow ranked as my QB9, and being selected 87th overall.
Running Backs
Another relatively easy one to call, Josh Jacobs is NFC’s 16th overall running back and is being taken 36th overall in active drafts. While I am not far off with where he is going, I have him 42nd in my overall rankings, I do take issue with Jacobs as the 16th overall running back right now.
To fully gauge Jacobs, who in my opinion does have bust written all over him, we need to look at his entire career. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2019, and then followed it up in 2020 with another 1,000 yard plus campaign. Yet a year ago, Jacobs had a massive fall in those rushing yards, only logging 872. Jacobs has seen his rushing numbers go down in every year of his career, with 9.3 rushing touchdowns per season on average.
Where I am also concerned is with Jacobs’ receiving numbers as well. Jacobs had 54 catches a year ago on 64 targets, that is more receptions than Jacobs had his first two years in the league combined. The absence of Darren Waller and the relative nothingness at wide receiver outside of Hunter Renfrow led to more opportunities for Jacobs in the passing game. With Waller’s return in 2022, coupled with the arrival of Davante Adams into the offense, will Jacobs get those receptions?
Where Jacobs settles is a complete mystery to me, I must say. I do think Jacobs improves on his rushing numbers under new head coach Josh McDaniels, but it is quite hard to see him logging more than 54 catches this season with Waller, Adams, and Renfrow all lobbying for targets. In half PPR, I don’t know if that pass-catching uncertainty warrants much of my attention especially as a near top 15 running back. Jacobs is being selected ahead of Elijah Mitchell, Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, and Leonard Fournette, four options I like a lot more than Jacobs. Jacobs comes in as my RB22 right now, and someone I would steer well clear from at his current ADP.
Wide Receivers
Ugh, this one hurts me to write given I loved him coming into 2022. But Elijah Moore is someone who, right now, is being overvalued massively by drafters. For one, Moore is being valued as if he is going to be the number one receiver for this Jets team like he was a year ago. The harsh reality, everso sadly, is he won’t be.
Look at the Jets failed pursuit of Tyreek Hill as a prime example. The Jets want to get Zach Wilson a go-to number one threat, and that is something that Jets brass don’t see Moore as. He can, and will, be a very good number two receiver for this Jets team in 2022. However, we aren’t drafting number two receivers as WR2s in fantasy. Moore is being drafted as NFC’s WR21, going off draft boards in round 6. If he was going to be the Jets number one, I would imagine his price may go up by a half, or even a full, round.
Moore’s rookie numbers a year ago were particularly impressive with the revolving door at quarterback for the Jets. Moore posted 538 yards in 11 games with six total touchdowns, and many were calling for a Moore breakout in 2022. That dream is all but dead with the Jets pursuit of Hill, and others.
The Jets are still on the hunt for that number one guy, and that will probably come to the Jets taking Drake London or Jameson Willams in round 1 of the draft in 14 days time. There is also the outside chance another big name could become available via a trade, such as a D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, or even a Deebo Samuel. Sources tell me and Talking Points Sports that a trade involving any of the three going to any team, let alone the Jets, is highly unlikely at this time.
Tight Ends
With their career stats, it is time to play America’s Favorite Game, Guess These Players!
Player A: 47 games, 170 receptions, 249 targets, 1,905 yards, 11.2 YPR, 10 touchdowns
Player B: 40 games, 160 receptions, 244 targets, 1,673 yards, 10.5 YPR, 12 touchdowns
Both of these players are tight ends (obviously). Both of these players were drafted in the same year. Yet, one player is being drafted as the TE6 at 72nd overall and the other is being drafted as the TE15 at 130th overall. Yes, these career numbers are strikingly similar.
Any other guesses as to who these players are? Stop scrolling here before you continue if you wish to guess. Here we go.
Player A is Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant (TE15; 130th overall), Player B is Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson (TE6; 72nd overall). Two college teammates are producing near identical numbers in the pros, with a 6 round difference between the two in drafts right now. And the question is, why?
While Hockenson’s talent is clear, I’m not sure why Hockenson gets this sterling reputation. He is a guy that a lot of fantasy managers and analysts alike hang their hats on, to hopefully join the elite group of tight ends one day. The fact of the matter is however, Hockenson has not been able to deliver on that promise thus far for fantasy managers. Hockenson is being drafted 10 spots higher than Dallas Goedert and 12 spots higher than Dalton Schultz, with both players ranking higher than Hockenson in my rankings. Hockenson is my TE9, going in late round 8/early round 9 of drafts right now.
I do not expect Hockenson’s price to drop much, thus rendering me out on the Lions tight end. Again, I would much rather take the plunge on Schultz and Goedert over Hockenson. Given the inconsistencies we have seen out of Hockenson, and the sharp rises of Schultz and Goedert over the last year, makes this a pretty easy one to call.
