The 2020 MLB season was only 60 games, and that small sample size means that some players who had down years may have just been unlucky. Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) provides with a statistic that includes every aspect of batting and weights each aspect in proportion to their actual run value. This stat most precisely captures offensive value. We can calculate what the wOBA should be for a player by looking at a hitter’s exit velocity and launch angle. This Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) can be found because we know the expected outcome of every batted ball for every player, which comes from launch angle and exit velocity patterns. Thus, by finding players who have a large difference between their xwOBA and OBA, we can see who was underperforming due to bad luck in the 2020 season. Some of those players may be destined for more success in 2021.
Dylan Carlson – OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Dylan Carlson made his exciting debut in 2020. Playing in 35 games, he slashed an underwhelming .200/.252/.364 with an wOBA of .264. The top 20 prospect is expected to be the everyday right fielder for the Cardinals in 2021. Carlson in 2019, with the Cardinal’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, respectively had a .387 and .448 wOBA. The switch hitter’s track record in minor leagues suggests that he is better than his performance in 2020, as does his .314 xwOBA in 2020 that was .050 points higher than is wOBA. Carlson’s improvement throughout the season in 2020 and his impressive quality of contact set him up for great success in 2021. He will improve in 2021 and be a contender for rookie of the year in the NL.
Tommy Pham – OF, San Diego Padres
Pham had an underwhelming performance in his first season with the San Diego Padres. He slashed a career worse .211/.312/.312 and a career worse wOBA of .284. Pham had a strong postseason as in 25 plate appearances he slashed .375/.400/.458 with an wOBA of .374, which more closely resembles his career average wOBA of .358. Pham in 2020 had a xwOBA of .351, which was a whopping .067 points higher than his wOBA in 2020. Thus, Pham was hitting the ball better than the results he had last year show and similarly to how he has throughout his career. Pham battled hand injuries last year, which resulted in a lower launch angle in 2020 and a higher grand ball rate despite his improved exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. The veteran outfielder is healthy going into the 2021 season and will be hitting in the heart of one of the best lineups in baseball. Pham will bounce back and have a much-improved season in 2021.
Bryce Harper – OF, Philadelphia Phillies
You may be reading this list and thinking, what the heck is Bryce Harper doing on this list, he had a monster 2020 season? That’s true. Harper did perform very well in 2020, but diving into the numbers suggests that he should have been even better! His .400 wOBA in 2020 is elite and puts him in the top 20 last season, but his xwOBA of .453 ranked 3rd in the league last season. This .053 difference between xwOBA and wOBA shows he should have had even better results in 2020. Harper last season had a career-best barrel percentage, exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, walk percentage, and a career-low strikeout percentage. The former NL MVP showcased last year why he is one of the league’s best players, and he should find even more success in 2021. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if his name is in the MVP conversation at the end of the 2021 season.
Gregory Polanco – OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Polanco was simply abysmal in 2020. His minuscule .147 batting average was the 2nd lowest clip the league last year amongst qualified hitters. Polanco’s .232 wOBA was also the 2nd worst in the league, and his .539 OPS ranked in the bottom five. The good news is better days are ahead for the veteran Pirate as he had the largest difference between his xwOBA and wOBA among qualified hitters. His .301 xwOBA was .069 points higher than his wOBA in 2021. He produced better quality contact than his results show. A .301 wOBA still is below average, but it’s a huge improvement. That number is on par with his career wOBA of .312, providing us with confidence that Polanco will perform better in 2021.
Carlos Santana – 1B, Kansas City Royals
Carlos Santana has been consistently overlooked throughout his career despite being an above-average hitter in every season he’s played except for last season. He’s been as consistent as they come; he’s posted wOBA between .330 and .380 in his first ten seasons, and that number dropped to a lower but still respectable .316 in 2020. Santana has a career xwOBA of .366, which is slightly higher than his career wOBA of .350. Santana’s uncharacteristic .052 difference between his .368 xwOBA and .316 wOBA in 2020 gives us reason to believe that his subpar performance, in comparison to his track record, was an outlier. The newly signed Royal will feature in the middle of their lineup and will improve upon his 2020 performance.
Danny Jansen – C, Toronto Blue Jays
Jansen has been known for his defense over his first three seasons in the show, but there is reason to believe the young catcher will contribute to the Blue Jays powerful lineup in 2021. The former #65 prospect, according to MLB.com in 2018, was known as an offense-first catcher. He showcased his offensive prowess in Triple-A, posting a .427 wOBA and .975 OPA in his first stint and a .386 wOBA and .863 OPA in his second stint before being called up. Jansen produced a .300 wOBA in 2020, which was .052 points lower than his xwOBA of .352. He will have a better season in 2021 and should produce a wOBA similar to his average career xwOBA of .321.
Max Muncy – 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Muncy revived his career after signing with the Dodgers in 2017 and has been a crucial part of the Dodgers success the past 3 years. In his elite 2018 and 2019 seasons, Muncy produced a .407 wOBA and .973 OPS, followed by a .373 wOBA and .889 OPS. Those wOBA numbers are on par with his xwOBA those two seasons which were .401 and .390, respectively. Muncy came down to earth in 2020, producing a .720 OPS and .316 wOBA, which was .048 points lower than his xwOBA of .364. That significant difference along with Muncy’s past success with the reigning World Series Champions, is evidence that Muncy will outperform his 2020 numbers in 2021.
Eduardo Escobar – 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Escobar had a down year in 2020, managing an awful .257 wOBA. That number is significantly below his career average wOBA of .314 and his xwOBA in 2020 of .305. The switch-hitting 3rd basemen was one of the better hitters in the majors from 2017-2019. Over those three seasons, he hit 79 home runs and 275 runs batted in. Escobar lost 21 pounds over the offseason in effort to bounce back from his poor 2020 form and regain his past success. The underlying numbers in 2020, including the .048 difference between his xwOBA and wOBA demonstrate that Escobar had bad luck. The Diamondback’s third basemen is going to have more success in 2021.
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