The 2020 MLB season was only 60 games, and that small sample size means that some players who had good years may have just been lucky. There are certain statistics that can help us identify pitchers who were lucky in 2020. Check out my last article 8 Pitchers That will Perform Better in 2021, for an explanation on Left On-Base Percentage (LOB%) and Expected Earned Run Average (xERA) which are the main statistics I will be using to analyze players. Some of the players who had a high LOB% or an xERA that is significantly higher than their ERA in 2020 may be destined for less success in 2021.
Dylan Cease – SP, Chicago White Sox
Cease appeared to have found his footing in his 2nd year in the majors with the White Sox. He lowered his ERA from 5.79 in 2019 to 4.01 in 2020 and raised his LOB% from 68.1% to 81.7%. A LOB% of 81.7% would rank amongst the top-15 pitchers in 2020 but is destined to fall in 2021. Cease isn’t a top-15 pitcher and his LOB% should drop to a more accurate representation of his talent in 2021. He had 68.0% LOB% in AAA in 2019 which is almost the same as his 2019 MLB LOB% and I expect Cease’s LOB% to fall towards those numbers.
Cease’s xERA in 2020 was 6.87, which was 2.86 points higher than his ERA. That was the largest difference for a pitcher in 2020! Surely his ERA will rise in 2021. His 6.36 FIP, 5.87 xFIP, and 5.86 SIERA in 2020 along with his 5.79 ERA in 2019 indicate that Cease should have had a worse ERA in 2021. Other reasons to be concerned about Cease heading into 2021 are the fact that his K% dropped from 24.8 in 2019 to 17.3% in 2020 and his BB% increased from 10.7% in 2019 to 13.3% in 2020. Both of those numbers are moving in the wrong direction and it seems as though Cease’s overall performance in 2019 is a better representation of his effectiveness than his performance in 2020. Cease will pitch closer to his 2019 performance in 2021 and have less success than he had in 2020.
Jose Urquidy – SP, Houston Astros
Urquidy made 5 starts for the Astros in 2020 and they were good ones. He posted a 2.73 ERA and 86.6% LOB% which were improvements from his 3.95 ERA and 73.8% LOB% in 2019. However, I am concerned that he overperformed in 2020 as his .209 BABIP which would have been the 2nd lowest rank amongst qualified pitchers last season and can not be duplicated in 2021. His BABIP is destined to rise considerably which along with a decrease in LOB% should result in less success in 2021. Urquidy had a 5.20 xERA in 2020, which is 2.47 points higher than his 2020 ERA. That was the 4th biggest difference last season. When considering his 4.71 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, and 5.41 SIERA in 2020 along with his xERA, the stats entail that Urquidy’s ERA will rise in 2021. Thus, Urquidy will have less success in 2021.
Zach Davies – SP, Chicago Cubs
One of the few people unhappy with the Padres offseason, is Zach Davies. Davies had his best MLB season in 2020 with a 2.73 ERA and 78.2% LOB% and still got traded from a World Series Contender to a rebuilding team. I don’t think Davies was even that good in 2020 and believe that he drastically overperformed. His 5.13 xERA in 2020 was 2.40 points higher than his 2020 ERA and indicates that he should’ve had less success based on the quality of contract he allowed. His 3.88 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, and 4.32 SIERA in 2020 imply that Davies should’ve been worse in 2020. I expect his ERA to rise to around his career ERA of 3.79 in 2021. Likewise, his LOB% should fall below his career mark of 73.5%. Davies 2020’ was a fluke and he will return to being an average pitcher in 2021 with a worse season.
Zach Plesac – SP, Cleveland Indians
Plesac had an elite 2020 season which was mostly overshadowed because of Shane Bieber’s dominant season. Plesac’s absurd 91.7% LOB% was higher than any number posted by a qualified pitcher in 2020. He also had 2.28 ERA which would have ranked in the top 10. Plesac was a stud in 2020, but I don’t think he can achieve the same success in 2021. He had a respectable 3.43 xERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, and 3.41 SIERA in 2020. It is pretty clear that Plesac had great luck in 2020 and over performed.
The fact that the four ERA predictors were all within .11 of each other provides lots of confidence that he should have pitched to an ERA somewhere in that range in 2020. I expect his ERA to rise to approximately somewhere between 3.39 and 3.50 in 2021. His LOB% will 100% decrease in 2021 near his career LOB% of 81.5%. Plesac is in store for a good 2021 MLB season as an above-average pitcher in the league. However, he won’t have the same degree of effectiveness and success that he enjoyed in 2020.
Merrill Kelly – SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Kelly has been consistent throughout his career including four seasons in the KBO. In those four seasons and his 1st MLB season in 2019, he had an ERA between 3.60 and 4.42 and an LOB% between 71.2% and 73.7%. While the level of competition in the KBO is weaker than it is in the MLB, Kelly has had similar success and I feel confident that his true effectiveness is showcased within the ERA and LOB% ranges I mentioned above. Kelly only made 5 starts in 2020, but he had a 2.59 ERA and 92.0% LOB%. That LOB% would’ve been the highest in the league, but it is guaranteed to regress down significantly.
His uncharacteristically low BABIP of .247 in 2020 informs us that Kelly experienced great luck and that he overperformed. Kelly had an xERA of 3.85 which is 1.26 points higher than his ERA in 2020. His 2020 FIP of 3.99, xFIP of 3.95, and SIERA of 3.92 suggest that Kelly’s ERA should’ve been higher. Kelly’s ERA will rise in 2021 to above 3.85 and his LOB% will drop below 75%. Thus, Kelly will have less success in 2021.
Chris Bassitt – SP, Oakland Athletics
Bassitt had his best season in 2020 posting a 85.6% LOB% and 2.29 ERA. Those were significant improvements from his career LOB% of 75.8% and ERA of 3.59. Bassitt had a 3.79 xERA, 3.59 FIP, and 4.49 xFIP, and 4.46 SIERA so his ERA should rise in 2021. His 3.79 xERA was 1.50 points higher than his ERA in 2020, which means that Bassitt was very lucky in 2020. The quality of contact against Bassitt implies that he should have had far less success in 2020. Bassitt’s ERA will rise in 2021 and his LOB% will fall, which will result in a less successful season.
Antonia Senzatela – SP, Colorado Rockies
Senzatela appears to have had a breakout season in 2020 with a career-best ERA of 3.44 and LOB% of 79.6%. However, I’m skeptical of his success because he has a career LOB% is 69.3%. I expect Senzatela to pitch closer to that number in 2021. He had a career-low BABIP of .268 which is less than his career .300 BABIP. A rise in BABIP in 2021 will result in a lower LOB% and less success. Senzatela’s xERA was 4.64 in 2020 which is 1.20 points above his 2020 ERA and his closer to his career ERA of 5.00. He had a 4.57 FIP, 4.81 xFIP, and 5.02 SIERA in 2020 also suggesting he overperformed in 2020. I expect Senzatela’s ERA to rise to between 4.57 and 5.02 in 2021 and he will have a worse season.
Taijuan Walker – SP, New York Mets
I really didn’t want to write about Walker in this article as a Mets fan, but ultimately I decided I had to. Walker had a 2.37 difference between his impressive 2.70 ERA and underwhelming 5.07 xERA in 2020. The bottom line is that Walker should not have been as successful as he was in 2020. His 4.56 FIP, 4.82 xFIP, and 4.60 SIERA indicate that he overperformed in 2020. Walker has a career ERA of 3.84 and I think that he will pitch to an ERA somewhere around that in 2021. Walker has a career low BABIP of .243 in 2020 and an unusually high 78.5% LOB%. In 2021, his BABIP should rise around his career number of .281 and that will coincide with a decrease in his LOB% to around his career mark of 72.4%. Thus, it pains me to say that Walker will have a worse season in 2021.
