James Paxton is headed to Boston.
Yesterday, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the left-hander had agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with the Red Sox. The deal also includes a two-year club option.
So what are the ramifications of this deal? Will it help the Red Sox? If so, how? Will signing Paxton and Michael Wacha be enough to get Boston’s rotation through 2022?
First of all, they lost Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a five-year contract with the Tigers. So they definitely needed somebody to fill that hole. But is Paxton the right guy to do it?
There are obviously some major question marks and concerns surrounding his health over the past two seasons. He pitched just an inning and a third with the Mariners this year, and later had Tommy John Surgery. He also barely pitched during the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
The last full season he had was in 2019, a year in which he went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts with the Yankees. Prior to his time with the Yankees, which granted, was quite brief, Paxton was a stalwart in the Mariners rotation, emerging as a front-line starter in 2017 when he went 12-5 and posted an ERA of 2.98 in 24 starts.
The next year, he threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays in his native country of Canada. He was then traded to the Yankees after the season when Seattle began its fire sale.
So we know Paxton is capable of pitching like an ace. His problem is his health. If he can stay healthy, then he could provide Boston with a solid top three in their rotation consisting of himself, Chris Sale, and Nathan Eovaldi. We can assume this is why he has a club option. The Red Sox probably see this as a potential to be a low-risk, high-reward type deal, and it could play out that way. Then again, it may not.
If he doesn’t stay healthy, it’ll be a real short stay in Boston for the left-hander. But he could be around for a while if he pitches like his 2017-19 self, when he was front-line starter for Seattle and the Yankees. That would give Boston a strong rotation that could help carry them through the 2022 season.
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