The 2020 MLB season was only 60 games, and that small sample size means that some players who had good years may have just been lucky. I will be analyzing players who have a large difference between their xwOBA and wOBA, so that we can see who was overperforming due to good luck in the 2020 season. Check out my last article 8 Hitters That Will Perform Better In 2021, for an explanation on Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA). Some of the players with a significantly larger xwOBA than wOBA in 2020 may be destined for less success in 2021.
DJ LeMahieu – 2B, New York Yankees
LeMahieu has been one of the best players in baseball since signing with the Yankees before the 2019 season. DJ has a very respectable career wOBA of .340 which has been raised thanks to a .375 wOBA in 2019 and a .428 wOBA in 2020, which ranked 4th in the league. LeMahieu posted a .893 OPS in 2019 and an impressive 1.011 OPS, which ranked 4th in the league in 2020. LeMahieu’s .361 xwOBA in 2020 was .067 points less than his wOBA. That was the largest difference between wOBA and xwOBA in 2020!
In a 60-game season, that kind of difference is understandable because there wasn’t enough time for his numbers to regress to the expected outcome. LeMahieu should experience that regression in 2021. The Yankee’s leadoff hitter has a difference less than .020 between his wOBA and xwOBA in every season except for 2020. LeMahieu is a star and will be one in 2021, just not to the same extent he was in 2020.
Raimel Tapia – OF, Colorado Rockies
Tapia is not your typical Rockies slugger taking advantage of Coors Field. He’s a contact hitter as demonstrated in his 2020 slash line of .321/.369/.402 and launch angle of 1.8 degrees. Tapia managed an above-average wOBA in 2020 of .338, but that was .048 points higher than his xwOBA of .290 which is concerning. Tapia has a career wOBA of .314 and a career xwOBA of .283; the average difference between those two is .031 points which is very high for one’s career. He has always been a low exit velocity hitter which is a big reason for that large difference with a career average of 85.5 mph, but his recent extreme drop in launch angle makes it difficult to see the Rockies outfielder producing an above-average wOBA in 2021.
Tapia’s career wOBA seems more like his best-case scenario to me in 2021. A major factor that demonstrates that Tapia was extremely lucky and overperformed in 2020 is his BABIP of .392. That insanely high number was 3rd in the league. The league average BABIP is typically around .300 and Tapia’s career BABIP is .354 which was raised by his last season numbers. There is no way that Tapia can get as lucky in 2021 as he was in 2020. Thus, Tapia will be a below-average hitter in 2021.
Christian Vazquez – C, Boston Red Sox
Vazquez has been one of the better offensive catchers in the league over the past two seasons, posting a .331 wOBA and .798 OPS in 2019 and a .345 wOBA and .801 OPS in 2020. The Red Sox backstop appears to have found his swing over the past two seasons, raising his career wOBA to .301. However, his xwOBA of .284 was .061 points less than his wOBA in 2020. Furthermore, despite his improvements in wOBA, Vazquez’s xwOBA has ranged between .280 and .304 over the past 4 seasons. Vazquez had great luck in 2020 as he had a BABIP of .341, which is .040 points higher than his career average. I expect Vazquez to produce a wOBA in 2021 that is more on par with his career xwOBA of .289 and career wOBA of .301. Thus, the veteran Red Sox should perform worse in 2021.
Miguel Rojas – SS, Miami Marlins
In 2020, Rojas led the Marlins to the postseason for the 1st time since 2003 thanks to a career year. Playing in 40 games in 2020, Rojas posted a career-best in wOBA of .379, OPS of .888, wRC+ of 142, and others. Rojas is an obvious candidate to perform worse in 2021 as his OPS in 2020 was an outrageous .210 points higher than his career OPS and his wOBA was .084 points higher than his career wOBA of .295. The veteran infielder had an xwOBA of .330 in 2020 which was .049 points lower than his wOBA that season. Rojas will produce a wOBA in 2021 that is below his xwOBA from 2020 and close to his career average wOBA and xwOBA which are both .295. Rojas had a great 2020, but Marlins fans should expect a return to his typical poor offensive output in 2021.
Jackie Bradley Jr. – OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Bradley had one of his better offensive seasons in 2020 posting a .352 wOBA and a .814 OPS. The newly signed Brewer has been an up and down offensive player throughout his career. JBJ has a slightly below-average career wOBA of .316 and a very similar career xwOBA of .312. Bradley’s xwOBA in 2020 was .305; that is .047 points lower than his wOBA in 2020. Thus, it is very reasonable to predict that JBJ will perform worse in 2021 than he did in 2020. JBJ also experienced far more luck in 2020 than he’s had in any other season as seen in his career-high .343 BABIP. That mark is .045 points higher than his career average and is extremely likely to decrease in 2021. I am delighted that my beloved Mets didn’t overpay for Bradley as his 2020 numbers are misleading.
Jose Ramirez – 3B, Cleveland Indians
The 2020 AL MVP runner-up, had a special 2020 season. Ramirez had a career best OPS of .993, wOBA of .415, barrel percentage of 10.2, SLG of .607, and wRC+ of 164. He had the 7th best wOBA in the league, but that number was .043 points bigger than his xwOBA of .372, which ranked 34th in the league. The switch-hitting third basemen’s career wOBA of .359 is a more accurate representation of his abilities as a great player rather than the excellent one he was in 2020. The large difference in Ramirez’s wOBA and xwOBA in 2020 along with a much lower career wOBA than his 2020 wOBA indicates that he will have less success in 2021. Ramirez is all-star caliber player, but I wouldn’t expect him to be an MVP candidate in 2021.
Jonathan Schoop – 2B, Detroit Tigers
Schoop had a good year in 2020 in his 7th full season in the majors. The 29-year-old slashed .278/.324/.475 and produced an above average wOBA of .340 which was .046 points higher than his xwOBA of .294 in 2020. A .294 wOBA is considered awful but that is what Schoop’s quality of contact suggests he should have had in 2020. Looking at his career wOBA of .318 in addition to his quality of contact last season, we should expect Schoop to have a worse wOBA in 2021 that is below average. The former all-star is past his prime and will perform worse in 2021 than 2020.
Willy Adames – SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Adames had his best offensive season in the show in 2020; he slashed a respectable .259/.332/.481 and had a wOBA of .347. However, there are many reasons to be concerned and be weary of Adames’ good fortunes in 2020. For starters, his 36.1% strikeout percentage was 3rd worst in the league. On top of that, his xwOBA was .305 which was .042 points lower than his wOBA in 2020 and his career wOBA is .323. Adames was one of the luckiest players in the league in 2020 as his .388 BABIP was the 5th highest. It is basically a certainty that his BABIP will go down significantly. The high strikeout rate and high BABIP in 2020 make Adames’ future look quite dreary. Those numbers suggest that Adames overperformed in 2020.
Adames is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, but that may not be enough to keep his job. The Rays have the consensus #1 prospect in baseball, Wander Franco, who is getting ready to graduate to the big leagues and be the Rays’ long-term shortstop. Adames, a former top 2020 prospect back in 2017, seems set for a down year in 2021 with his wOBA expected to drop below average and Franco approaching.
