We are already three weeks into the 2021 MLB season, and one of my biggest takeaways through the first 20+ days of action is the amount of rookies that have burst onto the scene and made an immediate impact for their clubs. From the blue-chippers atop the latest prospect rankings to the players that may not be as highly touted, it has been proven that there is not just one way to the big leagues and potentially achieve stardom at a young age. Despite there being a surplus of players that deserve recognition, I’ve decided to focus on four newcomers that have maybe surprised some people or exceeded their pre-season expectations. For this reasoning, guys like Jazz Chisholm, Dylan Carlson, and Casey Mize will not be on this list, as they all had serious Rookie of the Year aspirations heading into 2021. Instead, let’s take a closer look at a few players that have played their way into the way too early ROY discussion.
Michael Kopech, RHP (Chicago White Sox)
Let’s start with a former top prospect and now a key cog in the White Sox bullpen with Michael Kopech. Kopech has been on baseball fans’ radar ever since he was dealt from Boston to Chicago in the blockbuster trade that sent Chris Sale to the Red Sox. He got a brief call-up towards the end of 2018, but Tommy John’s surgery and his decision to opt-out of the 2020 season has kept Kopech off the Major League mound for over two years. With the long layoff for the young right-hander, White Sox management has decided to ease him back in by using him as a 2-3 inning pitcher mostly out of the bullpen.
So far through the first three weeks of April, Kopech has been a formidable force in his new role. In the 10.2 innings, Kopech has pitched over 5 appearances, the 24-year old has 17 strikeouts, which is a good for an incredible 14.34 K/9. Kopech is recognized as one of the best up-and-coming pitchers in the game today due to his build and the otherworldly stuff he possesses. His repertoire features a lively 4-seam fastball that averages just under 97 MPH with some late tail on it. Kopech then mixes in a devastating slider that has already proven to generate swings and misses. Hitters are 0-10 on the 43 sliders Kopech has thrown in 2021, with a 56.3% whiff rate and .070 xSLG. Kopech has also introduced a curveball that sits around 20 MPH slower than his fastball with an occasional changeup to give him a fantastic four-pitch arsenal that each range from average to plus spin on them. As soon as his arm is built up to a spot where both Kopech and the club are comfortable, expect the flamethrower to enter the White Sox rotation that already looks to be rather strong.
Kopech’s peripheral numbers particularly stand out for why he has the potential to be a front end of the rotation guy for the next decade. According to Baseball Savant, Kopech ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xWOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, K%, and Whiff %. These percentile rankings are an extremely reliable source of information that does not only depict how players are currently performing but also how they project based on their underlying metrics. No matter what numbers you look at, Michael Kopech is just scratching the surface on what he is capable of doing on a mound.
Yermin Mercedes, DH (Chicago White Sox)
We are sticking with the South Side of Chicago theme by focusing on one of baseball’s best stories so far this season. Yermin Mercedes or “The Yerminator” made history during opening weekend by starting his Major League career with eight hits in his first eight at-bats. Another 3-4 performance on April 5th made it three 3-hit games within his first four career games. Unlike the aforementioned Kopech, Mercedes is not a household name for those who aren’t familiar with the depths of the White Sox prospect pool. That being said, Mercedes isn’t your typical prospect to come up and shine at the highest level, due to already being 28 years of age. What kept Mercedes off the MLB radar all this time wasn’t necessarily his offensive production at the minor league levels, but his inability to find a true position. He has come up as a catcher, but his ability to receive the baseball has been rather suspect according to scouts. But the saying has always been “If you can hit they will find a spot for you”, and that is exactly what Yermin has done in his brief MLB career. In 63 plate appearances Mercedes is slashing .390/.429/.661 with an OPS of 1.090 and a wRC+ of 209. Just for reference, and to perspective how ridiculous Mercedes has been, a wRC+ of 100 is considered to be league average.
Now these numbers will certainly dip, and frankly, they already have after his monster first 10 games. But there is every reason to believe that Mercedes can remain an above-average hitter in the White Sox lineup throughout the year. I don’t think an OPS hovering .800-.830 is unrealistic given how hard Mercedes hits the baseball. What makes Mercedes so interesting is that he is kind of a throwback type of hitter. His strikeout numbers are relatively low, he rarely swings and misses, but he doesn’t walk. In the era of the three true outcomes, the hitting style of Mercedes is not seen nearly as much as say 10-15 years ago. This makes him extremely fun to watch and will be a treat to see him produce as the season grows longer.
Zach McKinstry, UTL (Los Angeles Dodgers)
As they have been accustomed to doing, the Dodgers look to have found another productive player seemingly out of nowhere with Zach McKinstry. Los Angeles drafted McKinstry in the 33rd round in 2016 and after making his debut towards the end of last season, McKinstry has been a major part of the Dodgers hot start in 2021. McKinstry has appeared in 17 of the 19 games the defending champions have played this season while spelling time for Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and Gavin Lux who have each missed time due to injuries. The rookie has taken the opportunity and ran with it by producing at a very high level to start the year. In 58 plate appearances, McKinstry is slugging .556 with a .883 OPS and 14 runs driven in. In a lineup loaded with talent up and down the order, McKinstry’s hot start has flown under the radar. What makes him even more impactful to the Dodgers is the fact that he can play several different positions around the diamond. He has shown his positional versatility early in 2021, as he’s played at least four games at three different positions (RF, 2B, LF). Major League Baseball is trending the way towards players that are able to move around the field, and play multiple positions to an above-average level.
Teams that win in this league have 1-2 players like McKinstry that can step in at any point and get the job done. Look no further than the Dodgers themselves, as this is not the first case of them finding a productive player off the scrap heap. Both Chris Taylor and Max Muncy began their Dodger careers as complementary pieces that can do many different things, and now they are each regulars in the LA lineup. I believe McKinstry will end up being an impactful piece to the puzzle, as the Dodgers look to go back to back in 2021.
Trevor Rogers, Starting Pitcher (Miami Marlins)
Trevor Rogers has quietly gone about his business by being one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League this season. Through four starts the rookie has been stellar; posting an ERA of 1.64 with a WHIP of an even 1 and a FIP of 2.36. He’s got 31 strikeouts in 22 innings, which puts him in the 90th percentile in K rate. Rogers’ hot start to 2021 was headlined by a dominant 10 strikeout performance over six innings at Citi Field in his second start that saw him match zeroes with 2X Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.
Despite the small sample size, Rogers has all the looks to be a quality starting pitcher in this league. He’s got 95 MPH with movement coming from the left side mixed in with a solid slider and a lethal changeup that has produced an xWOBA of .164 against it. Rogers did get some time in 2020, and on the surface, the 7 starts he made last season didn’t go too well, as the left-hander posted an ERA over 6. But his FIP was significantly lower hovering in the mid 4s, and his statcast numbers would suggest he was significantly better than what his traditional stats would suggest. His expected ERA was 2.5 runs under his actual ERA, which suggests that he ran into some bad luck in 2020. It was evident that Rogers was due for some positive regression heading into 2021, and if he can just work on limiting the BBs then I see his success continuing.
Rogers joins the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez in a young and exciting starting rotation with other rookies, Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera set to join the big club at some point this season; in addition to Max Meyer further down the road. With all this talent in the Miami pipeline, Rogers certainly gets overlooked, but he is showing glimpses of the potential he has to become an excellent pitcher.
For more MLB coverage, click here.
