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MLB: Predicting AL Awards (MVP, ROY, Cy Young, MOY)

Mike Trout
Ashley Landis/Associated Press

The 2020 MLB season has been anything but normal as we go into the final month of the regular season. Players only have 60 games to put together the best season that they can, while also trying to bring their team to the playoffs. With less than 20 games remaining in the regular season, many players have been put into contention for MLB’s annual awards that take place at the end of the season. With that being said, I am going to predict the AL award winners for the 2020 MLB season:

Rookie of the Year: Kyle Lewis (SEA)

Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners
Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images

I know what you’re thinking. Why isn’t Luis Robert here? Hold on, let me explain. Through 47 games, Lewis is hitting .295 with 10 home runs and 27 runs batted in, and has shown that he can consistently get on base for the Mariners. He currently holds an OPS well over .800 and a SLG close to .500. Lewis has been one of the few upsides on a fairly disappointing Mariners roster in 2020. People can certainly argue for Luis Robert, who has hit more home runs and drove in more RBI’s, but I would bet on Kyle Lewis because of his AVG and OPS. Last year, Kyle Lewis produced an .885 OPS, while hitting 6 home runs and driving in 13 runs in just 18 games. Deivi Garcia (NYY), Ryan Mountcastle (BAL), and Bobby Dalbec(BOS) are other names to look out for in the race for the AL rookie of the year award. Through just 22 games, Mountcastle has an average well above the .300 mark and an OPS near 1.000. Red Sox infielder Bobby Dalbec has put up solid numbers in his very short stretch in the big leagues so far, only 13 games. Dalbec has an OPS over 1.000 and has already hit 6 home runs and drove in 10 runs. Through his short big-league career, Dalbec has averaged roughly a home run every two games. Lastly, Yankee rookie starter Deivi Garcia has put up promising numbers in just four starts with the team. Garcia has an ERA just above 3 and a WHIP below 1, while also averaging 6 strikeouts per start. The 21-year-old rookie may have played his way onto the Yankee playoff roster, assuming they earn a spot at season’s end. Despite promising performances from a few other names, I am going to predict that Kyle Lewis will end up taking home the 2020 AL ROY award. I believe that Lewis will continue his consistent production for the Mariners, and many of the other candidates will not persuade the writers enough due to their lack of playing time (similar to Gary Sanchez in 2016).

Manager of the Year: Rick Renteria (CHW)

Chicago White Sox: 2020 is the year for Rick Renteria

Personally, the Manager of the Year award is always the most difficult for me to predict on any given year, especially with a few weeks of the season left. In 2019 Twins manager Rocco Baldelli won the honor of the award, after the team finished the season with one of the best records in baseball. In 2020, I believe another AL Central manager will take manager of the year in the AL, this time Chicago White Sox manager Rick Renteria. Coming into the 2020 season, many expected the White Sox to improve as an organization, but I do not think anyone could have predicted them at the top of their division with less than a month left to play. The White Sox currently sit three games in front of the Twins and 6 games in front of the Indians. Additionally, they hold the best record in the AL and the second-best record in all of baseball. Shifting to the AL East, Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo has also done a very good job with a Toronto team that has really overachieved expectations. The Blue Jays are in a prime position to make the playoffs this year, and the team has shown a willingness to win for this year and years to come. Sticking in the AL East, it is hard not to give credit to what Kevin Cash has done with a Tampa Rays team who currently sit atop the division. The Rays have exceeded expectations by overcoming their division rival, the New York Yankees. The Rays are set to be one of the top seeds in the AL, assuming they can continue playing good baseball the rest of the way. Last year, Bob Melvin was in the center of talks for manager of the year, and I don’t think this year will be any different. The 2020 Oakland Athletics have been one of the most dominant teams in baseball, even outperforming last year’s AL champions the Houston Astros. The Athletics are posed to make a deep postseason run this year and can still very well claim the top seed in the AL. As I stated earlier, it is difficult for me to predict a manager will take home the honor, but if I had to bet on someone it would be Rick Renteria. The White Sox dominance is similar to what we saw last year with the Minnesota Twins, so it is fair to assume that like Baldelli, Renteria can win the award. 

Cy Young: Shane Bieber (CLE)

Cy Young Favorite Shane Bieber Now the AL MVP Favorite, Too
Photo via @CBSSportsHQ (Twitter).

After having a somewhat disappointing rookie season, Shane Bieber broke out onto the scene in 2019 as he finished 4th in Cy Young voting and winning the All-Star game MVP for the AL. Bieber went 15-4 while putting up a 3.28 ERA and a WHIP of 1.054. He was also able to pitch over 200 innings and strike out well over 200 batters, making him potentially the next ace of the Indians rotation. Through just 10 starts this season, Bieber has been arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball. He holds a 7-1 record, with an ERA well below 2, a WHIP below 1.000, and a FIP barely above 2.00 (more than 1.00 lower than last year). Bieber has been nothing short of dominant this year and is a huge reason why the Indians are in a good position to return to the playoffs. Bieber currently sits at the top of the leaderboard among all pitchers in the MLB in wins, ERA, strikeouts, and quality starts.  Bieber’s teammate Zach Plesac has also made a bid for the AL Cy Young as he holds an ERA slightly above 2 and a WHIP well below 1 through just 6 games started. Staying in the AL Central, Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda has been a pleasant surprise for the team as he too has an impressive mid 2 ERA and a WHIP below 1.000. Maeda sits at 5-1 with 63 strikeouts through 9 starts for the Twins thus far in 2020. Finally, in the AL West, two starters have been quietly dominating on teams that just haven’t been as good as expected. These two starters are Lance Lynn and Dylan Bundy, who have both been among their team’s most reliable pitchers. Firstly, Lynn is tied with Shane Bieber for the most quality starts in baseball, while also having six wins and 79 strikeouts (both among league-leading stats). He also holds a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP below 1, making him undoubtedly the best pitcher in the Rangers staff. Dylan Bundy has turned out to be a very wise addition for the Angels as he has a mid-2 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00. Bundy has been the best pitcher on a struggling Los Angeles Angels team, and has frankly had the best ‘season’ of his career so far. With all being said, Shane Bieber simply cannot be denied for the AL Cy Young award this year in my opinion. Bieber has been outstanding overall for the Indians and is leading or among those leading for pretty much every pitching stat in baseball. As of the time I am writing this article, it seems like this award is Bieber’s to lose. 

Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout (LAA)

Mike Trout

The award for the most valuable player (MVP) is always the most exciting and also usually the most debatable. For the 2020 season my choice for the AL MVP is none other than Los Angeles outfielder Mike Trout. Are you surprised? It seems as if Trout is in the MVP conversation every year he plays because he is just that good. Through 44 games this year, Trout is hitting .295 with 16 home runs and 39 runs batted in. He sits with a SLG over .600 and an OPS over 1.000, which although very impressive, is becoming a normal thing for Trout. He is tied for second for the most home runs in the MLB and just blows away a lot of guys in SLG, OPS, and OPS+. There just seems to be nothing bad to say about Trout because of his consistent elite production for the Angels, year in and year out. Ok, that’s enough talk about Trout. Who else is having an MVP-caliber season in the AL? For starters, Yankee first-baseman Luke Voit is leading all of baseball in home runs with 18 on the year. Voit has been undoubtedly the best offensive player on a Yankee team that has been filled with injuries. He is currently hitting .280 with 18 home runs and 42 runs batted in. Voit has really broken out as a big offensive player in the Yankee lineup, as he also has a SLG over .600 and an OPS well above .900. Nelson Cruz is the other player tied with Trout for homeruns, and he too is having a really solid year. Cruz is hitting well above .300 with 16 home runs, 32 runs batted in, and a SLG well above .600. One could argue he has even better offensive numbers than Trout, but being a DH, Cruz may have trouble getting the votes he deserves. The last candidate for me (or the last one I will mention at least) comes from one of the most surprising teams in baseball this year: the Chicago White Sox. Jose Abreu has shown his elite offensive ability thus far in the season, as he sits among MLB’s leaders in home runs, runs batted in, and hits. Abreu is currently hitting well above .300 with 15 home runs, an MLB leading 48 RBI’s, and a SLG above .600. The White Sox first-baseman has recently overtaken Trea Turner for the most hits in baseball right now and has really been a big stick in the team’s lineup. It is inevitable that there will be plenty of debates surrounding this award for the rest of the season, but my pick right now will be Mike Trout. In my opinion, it seems very difficult to pick against  Trout in any sort of way, but with baseball of course anything could happen. It will be in Trout’s favor that MLB writers (voters) will submit their pick for MVP before the postseason, considering the Angels don’t seem to be in a good spot to end their drought.

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