As the trade deadline approaches, the St. Louis Cardinals enter a stretch that could define their season and the future of the organization as a whole.
They head out to Colorado for a four-game series as Nolan Arenado makes his return to Coors Field, before heading to San Francisco to take on the MLB-Best Giants and then head to Chicago for a critical series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs.
It’s been a turbulent season for St. Louis. After a disastrous month of June, they went from leading the NL Central to now sitting in third place and falling 8 games behind the first place Brewers. They enter the month of July a game under the .500 mark at 40-41.
It’s hard to tell what direction the Cards are headed now, and this next stretch may determine what their deadline strategy will be. Injuries to Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, and Kwang-Hyun Kim, as well as inconsistencies from Carlos Martinez and Johan Oviedo turned their starting rotation into one of the worst in baseball, and the offense has been inconsistent at best since Harrison Bader went down with a rib injury.
Below, we look at the possible avenues St. Louis could take at the deadline, and determine the case for why each one could be their best option.
The Case For Buying:
This is what most Cardinal fans, including myself, would want. After all, when they traded for Arenado in the offseason, we all expected this season to be a fun ride. It’s been anything but that, but it is salvageable. The offense will be getting a little boost tonight with the return of Bader, and there’s still three months left in the season.
As we’ve discussed before, St. Louis’ most glaring needs are a bench bat and a starting pitcher. The problem is, the market is super tight for pitchers. Prices are high. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak has been quoted saying that it’s really “a seller’s market,” and he’s right.
It’s probably unlikely that the Cardinals trade for Kyle Gibson or Jose Berrios, but the beauty of that is that they don’t necessarily need an ace, though that would be ideal. They really just need someone who’s good enough and can eat up innings.
A few days ago, Ryan Fagan of The Sporting News published an article containing a list of possible starting pitchers teams could trade for, and it included some potentially cheaper options such as Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, and Merrill Kelly, none of which are dominant but are solid options to plug a hole.
A move for any one of these starters would boost a faltering rotation and might just help get them back into the playoff race. The Cardinals would be smart to consider doing this, and also, do they really want to throw away a season in which they acquired a Gold-Glove third-baseman, or risk missing the playoffs in what could be the last ride for Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina?
The Case For Selling:
As much as I hate to admit it, this may be the best path for St. Louis. It could be that they decide this year isn’t the year and deal off some of their assets.
Though there’s a lot of season left, they aren’t close to the first-place Brewers, who are red-hot at the moment and aren’t showing any signs of slowing down. They’re also not exactly in contention for a Wild-Card spot either, as with the NL West being a juggernaut, the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres are all within a few games of each other and each flaunt the best three records in the National League. And if the postseason began today, the Dodgers and Padres would be the Wild-Card teams, and both of them are miles ahead of St. Louis.
The Cardinals could take a page out of the 2016 New York Yankees book, and not do a full rebuild, but rather, just a retool to allow some of their top prospects (i.e. Matthew Liberatore and Nolan Gorman) to make their first impressions on the team and point them towards 2022 and beyond.
St. Louis could look to trade Paul DeJong, who has struggled this year, hitting just .169. This would allow Edmundo Sosa more opportunities, as he filled in quite nicely while DeJong was on the Injured List. Andrew Miller is another potential trade piece. The Cards at this point have made Genesis Cabrera their go-to lefty and have used him more in high-leverage situations than they have Miller, who’s a free-agent at the end of the year. They could also see if there are any takers for Bader, which might allow Lars Nootbaar a clearer path to the big leagues.
The Case For Both:
It could be that the Cards buy and sell, something they did in 2018. They sold off reliever Sam Tuivailala and outfielder Tommy Pham to get prospects, but also did some buying in the process, shipping off Luke Voit to the Yankees for relievers Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos. While it took a year for Gallegos to burst onto the scene, Shreve provided them with a lefty specialist for their bullpen, which had been a weak point over the past three seasons.
We may see St. Louis use some of the pieces mentioned above to get what they need, a starter and a bench bat. As previously stated, it would be sad if they waved the white flag on what could be the final year they have Wainwright and Molina.
This could also be the way they get themselves back into contention; dealing off certain assets to get what they need, while also potentially clearing a path for some younger players. The Pham trade in 2018 opened up spots for Bader and Jose Martinez, who were pivotal in their rise from .500 in July to 88 wins by the end of the season. The right combination of moves, buying and selling, could be what saves their season.
Ultimately, the Cards’ next stretch of games will determine what direction the team is headed and what approach they’ll take at the deadline. But one thing is certain. Doing nothing is not an option. That is what they have done the past two years, and though they reached the playoffs in both seasons, it sends a mixed message to fans and players about where the organization is headed, and they need some clarity going forward.
For more MLB coverage, click here.
