In 2004, the St. Louis Cardinals had the best record in all of baseball. After being picked to finish third in the NL Central behind the Astros and the Cubs, St. Louis got hot and finished with a 105-57 record, winning the division by 13 games over the Astros and ultimately beating them in the NLCS to advance to the World Series, where they would ultimately be swept by the Boston Red Sox.
Late in the season, staff ace Chris Carpenter went down with an arm injury and was shut down for the remainder of the regular season, as well as the postseason. Today, we’ll take a look at how things might have played out if Carpenter was able to stay healthy for the full season.
Carpenter left his start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 18 and was not seen on a big league mound for the rest of the year. For starters, we need to examine what happened while the Cards were without their ace.
First of all, they clinched the NL Central two days after Carpenter’s injury. That would still happen, and the Cardinals would probably finish with a similar record to what they finished with in real life. The Cardinals first test in the postseason was a date with the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Woody Williams, Jason Marquis, Matt Morris, and Jeff Suppan were lined up for Games 1-4, with Dan Haren available out of the bullpen. We can assume that Carpenter would draw the Game 1 start against Odalis Perez. There’s no guarantee he would’ve won that start, but with Carpenter active, it might have been a little easier for St. Louis to win that series. That would also mean that Morris would be pushed to the bullpen, due to him having an ERA of 4.72, the highest of St. Louis’ five starters. But that would give them a solid arm in the bullpen to go along with Haren. If Carpenter were to win his start, the Cardinals would probably sweep the series.
That would line Jeff Suppan up to start Game 1 of the NLCS against the Astros, if the Cards were to stick with their order, which is very possible, given that Suppan led the team in wins in 2004. That means that Carpenter, Williams, and Marquis would follow in that order. That series went a full seven games in real time, with the home team winning every game, but with Carpenter’s help, it would likely be easier for St. Louis to take down Houston. We’ll say they do it in six games this time instead of seven.
Now it’s time to see how the Cards would stack up against the blazing-hot Red Sox, who had just shocked the entire world by ripping off four straight wins over the Yankees to come back from a three-games-to-none hole. In reality, there was no stopping the Red Sox that October. Even if Carpenter was active, St. Louis wouldn’t have fared much better, but for the fun of the theory, we’re still going to examine what the series might have looked like.
The Cards would have three solid options to start Game 1 of the series in Boston, and many different ways they could line up their starters for the first four games. Carpenter would have only had two days of rest, so he wouldn’t be able to start Game 1. The best options would have been Williams or Suppan to match up with Tim Wakefield. We’ll assume the Cardinals stick with their order, as having those two guys in the first two games of the series would be somewhat of a boost, and they wouldn’t have to pitch somebody on short rest in Game 2, like they did in real time when Matt Morris was moved up from Game 3
Given the Red Sox’ momentum, it’s likely that Boston would have still won Game 1, but Suppan would be there to start Game 2 and try to stop the bleeding. He would have been hard pressed to beat Curt Schilling, who was lights out that night despite his ailing ankle and the fact that he was less than a week removed from his “bloody sock” start in Game 6 of the ALCS. Suppan would have probably at least kept the Cardinals close, however, so winning Game 2 would be possible.
The Cards would then have Carpenter in Game 3 to go up against Pedro Martinez, and this would have been an exciting one. Two aces meeting in the World Series would captivate St. Louis and Boston fans alike, and we would’ve had a classic pitcher’s duel.
From then on, the series would still play out in the Red Sox favor. They were a team of destiny in 2004, and even had Carpenter been available, it wouldn’t have changed much, other than the Cardinals might have managed to win one or two games. In the end however, that was Boston’s year, and they were a runaway train, but it’s interesting to imagine what things might have looked like if the Cards ace was healthy and able to pitch.
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