The Atlanta Braves currently sit at a record of 16-12 with only one of the projected five starting pitchers from Spring Training remaining, which can only be described as a major success. Ace Mike Soroka went down with a season-ending achilles injury, the middle of the rotation collapsed with Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb being optioned to minor league camp, and new signings Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez are yet to throw a single pitch.
Manager Brian Snitker has attempted to piece together some semblance of a starting rotation, and a 2.0 game lead in the NL East suggests he’s doing a pretty solid job. However, the Braves have relied heavily on their bullpen and have won in spite of mediocre starting pitching performances more often than because of them. Atlanta relievers have entered the game with the team trailing more often than they have with the team winning, and the team’s 145 runs scored on offense are good for sixth in all of baseball.
The playoff system has always favored teams with strong starting pitching at the top of the rotation, and that becomes even more of a factor with the introduction of a three-game series in the first round.
Let’s dive into the current state of Braves starting pitching and how they can improve before October.
MR. RELIABLE – MAX FRIED
The only debate that needs to happen here is whether or not Max Fried can continue to perform at a Cy Young-caliber level for the rest of the season. He has been absolutely phenomenal through his first six starts, and the Braves will continue to rely on him every five games (or even four if they have an off day included in there).
34.0 IP, 33 K, 5 ER, 96th percentile in opponent exit velocity…yeah, you get it. The guy’s pretty good. Let’s talk about some things that aren’t so pretty.
THE UNKNOWNS – TOUKI TOUSSAINT AND KYLE WRIGHT
The Braves were hoping that Toussaint and Wright, who have split time between the big leagues and Gwinnett over the past few seasons, would step up and fill the shoes of the guys going in the opposite direction. The results have been pretty similar for both hurlers- flashes of brilliance with a whole lot of inconsistency.
When the 24-year-old Toussaint went 6.2 IP and fanned nine batters in a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays on August 6, the hope was that he had at least established himself as a starter and could carry that confidence forward. Since then, he has promptly walked seven batters in 7.0 IP while surrendering nine runs against the Yankees and Nationals.
Meanwhile, Wright has walked an astonishing 16 batters in 15.0 IP and carries an 0-3 record with a 7.20 ERA in four starts. It is important to highlight the walk totals with both of these young pitchers because their command has been the primary issue. The Braves need someone with more than just “A+ stuff.” They need someone who can locate on a consistent basis, which is why they have resorted to a couple of less flashier options in recent days.
THE STOPGAPS – JOSH TOMLIN AND ROBBIE ERLIN
Tomlin has been a go-to option for Brian Snitker out of the bullpen since he arrived last season because, frankly, he throws strikes. They can afford to lean a bit toward a “pitch to contact”-type guy because the Braves have one of the better defensive setups in the league, but generally it is a dangerous game to play. Tomlin walked just seven batters in 79.1 IP last season (0.8 BB/9), but he hasn’t been spectacular in his two starts this year (7.0 IP, 12 H, 6 ER).
Erlin is interesting because he was let go by the 6-17 Pirates, which begs the question, “Why would the Braves acquire him?” You guessed it, he throws strikes! His two starts with the club have been decent, where he has gone a combined 8.0 IP and given up just 2 ER while walking two and striking out eight.
These two men have done an okay job thus far, but their inability to pitch beyond the fourth inning makes the strain on the bullpen a real concern. I don’t think the Braves can afford to have multiple guys like this in the rotation long-term, so they may have to choose one or the other in the near future. If Erlin continues to be fairly effective, they may opt to move Tomlin back to the bullpen for the stretch run.
THE WILD CARDS – IAN ANDERSON AND COLE HAMELS
There are a few cards in GM Alex Anthopoulos’s pocket that he has not had the opportunity to play just yet. 22-year-old Ian Anderson, the third overall selection of the 2016 draft, has been throwing at the club’s alternate training site and has reportedly looked dominant. The #3 prospect in the Braves system (and #42 in baseball according to MLB Pipeline) could see his Major League debut come as early as this week against the Yankees, and despite the unknowns, could be a massive boost to the rotation. Stay tuned.
The organization’s biggest offseason signing alongside Marcell Ozuna, lefty Cole Hamels, has yet to appear in a game after signing a 1-year, $18 million deal in December. Triceps issues have sidelined him since March, and even the delayed start to the season has not aided in his rehab process. The Braves have not been able to commit to him playing in the regular season, but reports say that he is at least beginning to throw from a distance. He is eligible to return from the injured list in a couple of weeks, so it will be interesting to hear what kind of progress has been made.
TRADE POSSIBILITIES
If Anthopoulos is able to swing a trade for a serviceable starting pitcher without giving up any big-name prospects, he will likely do so. A few names that have been thrown around by baseball writers include Seattle’s Taijuan Walker (4.00 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 8.3 SO/9 in 27.0 IP), Baltimore’s Alex Cobb (3.73 ERA, 2.9 BB/9 in 31.1. IP), and Texas’s Mike Minor, who has struggled after a solid 2019 campaign.
Nobody really knows what value teams will place on their players with the shortened season and altered playoff structure, so that will affect any deal that the Braves try to get done. There is certain to be a sense of urgency from an Atlanta point of view, with this team built to compete for a World Series title right now.
The bottom line is that the pitching situation could look a lot more positive if a couple of these pieces fall into place over the coming weeks. After all, a 16-12 record and a first place spot in the division is pretty impressive with all of the adversity this group has had to deal with in a year that has prided itself on adversity.
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