With the Warriors officially being crowned world champions, the focus of the NBA turns to the rapidly approaching draft. Even with just one day remaining before the Orlando Magic are on the clock, a lot of uncertainty remains about where the top prospects of this draft will land. Based on recent reports, here is a final 2022 NBA mock draft before Thursday night.
1. Orlando Magic – Jabari Smith, PF, Auburn
This pick combines who should go here and who will ultimately end up going here. Between selecting Mo Bamba at 6th overall in the 2018 draft and trading for Wendell Carter just three months ago, there is a well-documented history of this front office loving big men with strong physical traits. While that makes Holmgren seem like the favorite, Smith is the player the Magic need.
A deadeye, spot-up shooter at 6’10, Smith is everything a franchise dreams of in a modern-day forward. He has good rhythm when getting to his spot in the midrange and was phenomenal in transition, with the trail three being one of his most efficient shots. Defensively, he needs to fill out his frame to be able to withstand an NBA season, but his athleticism and length give him plus defender upside. A pick-and-pop game with Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs has the potential to be highly productive for the Magic, and Smith has shown the ability to put the ball on the floor if teams come in too hot on the closeout. A 6’10 Mikal Bridges has been thrown around as Smith’s player comparison, and the Magic could definitely use a player like that in their rebuilding process.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder – Chet Holmgren, PF, Gonzaga
Given that the Thunder liked Aleksej Pokuševski at 17th overall in the 2020 draft, it’s hard to imagine a world where they don’t love Holmgren at second overall. Presti isn’t afraid to swing for the fences with his plethora of picks, and Holmgren could end up being the biggest home run of all when it is all said and done.
Holmgren is a fantastic two-way player, combining a versatile offensive skillset with outstanding defensive numbers. His 7.4 blocks per 100 possessions this past season is one of the best marks of the last decade amongst big men. Even if guards use their bodies well to protect their shot at the rim, he frequently still found a way to make a play on the ball with his 7 foot 6 wingspan. Offensively, he showed the ability to put the ball on the floor while shooting 39% from three. The two-man combination of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren has a lot of offensive versatility, and the Thunder can get creative about how they use him as they continue to add pieces around their young core.
3. Houston Rockets – Paolo Banchero, F/C, Duke
Odds are the Rockets are content to sit at third overall and see which of the top three prospects falls to them. Like Oklahoma City, Houston is in the early stages of a massive rebuild, with this first-rounder being the first of three first-rounders in this draft and the first of many over the next few years.
Banchero fits nicely with the Rockets’ current roster makeup and he should be available when they are on the clock. At 6’10, he is an amazing shot creator and can get others involved with his passing skills as well. His 6.3 assists per 100 possessions is fantastic for his size, and his ability to initiate the Duke offense in the absence of a true lead guard was impressive. The big forward playmaker archetype that we see with Banchero is reminiscent of Raptors forward Scottie Barnes as he was coming out of Florida State. Rockets really can’t go wrong with any of the top-3 prospects, and Banchero just might be the best-case scenario.
4. Sacramento Kings – Keegan Murray, F, Iowa
This is where the draft gets tricky. Nearly every draft expert out there will tell you Purdue guard Jaden Ivey is the better prospect. However, assuming the Kings hold onto this pick, Ivey seems unlikely to be taking his talents to Northern California. The Kings’ backcourt is already crowded with De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell; adding another ball-dominant guard to the mix seems like a combustible situation. Ivey also revealed on Monday that he has only worked out for the Magic and Pistons, and he has not been in contact with the Kings.
With that in mind, Murray is the next best option. Murray can do it all at the forward spot, excelling primarily in transition and spot-up scoring. He plays physical in the post as well, ranking in the 99th percentile in post-up scoring in the nation last season, according to Synergy. Murray was just shy of 40% from three and has the athleticism to guard multiple positions on defense. He is a bit on the older side for a younger Kings team, but the Kings could use a high-floor wing prospect.
5. Detroit Pistons – Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue
If the first four picks fall into place as displayed above, the Pistons are put in an interesting spot. A trade-back would very much be in the mix, with more guard-depleted teams likely eager to move up to take Ivey. However, with no trades in this mock draft, the Pistons go with Ivey and figure out the roster fit later.
Ivey has drawn high praise from the draft community, with Ja Morant and Russell Westbrook being the two names most commonly associated. Ivey plays with blistering pace, torching teams in transition and using his athleticism to finish at the rim. His perimeter shooting needs some work, but his 10 percent increase in three-point percentage from last season to this season inspires confidence. Selecting Ivey would be interesting for the future of Killian Hayes. Hayes was the Pistons’ top-10 selection in the 2020 draft and is just 20 years old. While Hayes has struggled to have the desired impact through his first two seasons, selecting Ivey and effectively giving up on his development as the second guard alongside Cade Cunningham would be harsh. Maybe the Pistons can make it work with the three of them sharing the ball, but it would create an interesting on-floor dynamic.
6. Indiana Pacers – Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor
Maybe the more likely pick here is Shaedon Sharpe, but it presents the same Ivey to the Kings dilemma. The Pacers recently acquired both Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield from the Kings. Not to mention they selected Chris Duarte with their first-round pick last year and still have Malcolm Brogdon rostered. Reports leading up to the draft are that the Pacers are desperately trying to move Brogdon before Thursday night. Even if that does happen, it would be interesting to see if the Pacers would select another guard. If they don’t view Sharpe as a generational prospect, Sochan would be a strong alternative.
Sochan’s selling point is his defensive versatility. From Big 12 play to the tournament run by Baylor, he demonstrated the ability to guard all five positions in some capacity. Sochan also has strong ball-handling capabilities, which he uses to finish efficiently at the basket. According to Synergy, he shot 67.2% on all shots around the basket, not including post-ups. Sochans’ perimeter shooting needs work, but he can potentially be a great connector guy for Indiana.
7. Portland Trailblazers – Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky
Going into Tuesday, the Blazers were pegged as the most likely to trade their pick. However, the report from ESPN today is that Portland likes Sharpe, and their interest in trading the pick has faltered. Either way, time is running out on Damian Lillard’s prime years, and the Blazers may not have time to let a top prospect develop before they need him to be making meaningful contributions. However, in a scenario where they do make this pick, swinging for the fences with Sharpe makes sense.
Sharpe is the biggest mystery of the draft. Enrolled at Kentucky, never played, and did little to nothing at the NBA Combine. Watching his EYBL film, one thing is for sure: he is an elite offensive player. Sharpe ranked in the 85th percentile in points per possession on jump shots. He also ranked in the 93rd percentile in off-the-dribble jump shot scoring. Granted, this was all against the EYBL competition, but the potential was there. With a 6’11 wingspan, the hope for the Blazers is he would be able to guard 1-3 in the NBA so as not to crowd the backcourt that already boasts Lillard and Anfernee Simons. This pick will indicate how much faith the Blazers brass has instilled in newly-hired general manager Joe Cronin.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (via Los Angeles Lakers) – Bennedict Mathurin, G, Arizona
The Pelicans shocked the league this past season, making the playoffs and taking two games away from the Suns even with Zion Williamson sidelined. New Orleans is the eighth-youngest team in the league and has a bright future ahead. Adding Mathurin as another two-way wing with upside could be the next piece to the puzzle.
The Pelicans already have plenty of on-ball scoring between C.J McCollum and Brandon Ingram. Mathurin is an elite spot-up shooter and would be better suited handling the ball in a lower volume setting. He ranked in the 61st percentile in jump shot scoring with the Wildcats last season this past season. A lineup including Mathurin, Jose Alvarado, Herb Jones, and 2021 first-round pick Trey Murphy would be a nightmare for teams defensively. Adding Mathurin and his NBA-ready frame would give the Pelicans a lot of versatility on that side of the ball.
9. San Antonio Spurs – Ousmane Dieng, F, New Zeland Breakers
This pick would be completely out of right field if it were anyone but the Spurs. Like the Magic love a lanky big man, the Spurs love themselves an international wing prospect. Dieng has a long way to go as a player, but San Antonio has demonstrated elite player development over the years, making this pick make sense.
Dieng is already a favorite to outperform his projected draft night position, and for a good reason. The 6’10 forward showed a little bit of everything last season in the NBL, from smooth off-the-dribble scoring to creating as the primary ball-handler out of the pick and roll. He finished the season with strong shooting splits and has improved tremendously on the defensive end. With guys like Dejounte Murray, Josh Primo, Devin Vassell, and Keldon Johnson already crowding the backcourt, a front-court player seems like the likely pick here at ninth overall.
10. Washington Wizards – Dyson Daniels, G, G-League Ignite
The Wizards stop Daniels’s “slide” in this mock draft. While this is still an appropriate range for him, rumblings around the NBA have Daniels as a potential top-5 favorite. Sacramento and Indiana are popular projected landing spots, with Daniels receiving high praise from his workout in front of Pacers executives.
Daniels ending up in Washington would be a solid outcome for both parties. Daniels is a strong two-way guard, being an initiator on offense and using his 6’8 frame to be disruptive on defense. He was a great creator for the Ignite team last season, finishing with an above-average 1.8 assist to turnover ratio. There have been concerns that he may not excel in a lead guard, high-volume role. That is where pairing him up alongside Bradley Beal wouldn’t be the worst outcome for Daniels. Daniels gives the Wizards a change of pace from Beal while not having to bear the load of a true point guard. The Australians’ upside should be enough for the Wizards to take a swing on should he fall this far come Thursday night.
11. New York Knicks – A.J Griffin, F, Duke
Earlier in the process and leading up to the tournament, most scouts considered Griffin a comfortable top-10 pick. Now, with draft week upon us, eleventh overall seems like the proper range for the former Blue Devil.
Offensively, Griffin is a lights-out shooter, arguably the best spot-up shooter in the draft. He shot 44.7% on over four attempts per game with Duke last season and ranked in the 95th percentile in catch and shoot scoring. Apart from that, nothing really stands out offensively. There were glimpses of off-the-dribble scoring, but a lot of that was generated by space created by playing alongside the likes of Banchero and the other Duke stars. He also struggles defensively, with questions about his lateral quickness and ability to defend on the perimeter against smaller guards. Luckily for the Knicks, they already have a collection of on-ball creators, so Griffin ending up in New York could allow him to play to his strengths offensively and hopefully gain some identity on defense.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jalen Williams, G, Santa Clara (via Los Angeles Clippers)
I can almost guarantee this pick isn’t going to be who you think it is going to be. The Thunder took Josh Giddey sixth overall when no one expected it. Even Tre Mann at 18th overall was a curveball by most accounts. Taking the Santa Clara standout in Williams seems exactly on-brand for Sam Presti.
The Thunder are in the middle of a rebuild of epic proportions. With their endless pile of draft picks, they are and will continue to be more inclined to take swings on high-upside guys that could be their next franchise cornerstone. Enter Williams. Standing at 6’6 with an absurd 7’2 wingspan, Williams has shown to be a strong shot creator and playmaker with the ball in his hands. His three-ball is one of the best in the draft and has fantastic vision. His 2.0 assist to turnover ratio tied for 19th in the nation last season, minimum 500 possessions. Make no mistake, Williams is firmly in the lottery discussion, and the Thunder are just one of a few potential landing spots within the top-14.
13. Charlotte Hornets – Mark Williams, C, Duke
This pick is a fastball right down the middle for most mock drafts. It is hard to find a better fit in the draft than Williams ending up in Charlotte. The pick fills a positional need for the Hornets, and Williams is arguably the best player available at this point.
Not many physical specimens on this earth come close to Williams’s physical makeup. Williams clocked into the combine at 7’1 with a 7’7 wingspan. Offensively, he dunks everything he gets his hands on and is incredibly efficient with the shots he does get. Defensively, he swats everything in sight, finishing the season with seven blocks per 100 possessions. He moves his feet well in drop coverage and is nimble getting up and down the floor in transition. The potential duo of Williams and LaMelo Ball is a match made in heaven. Do I hear Lob City 2.0?
14. Cleveland Cavaliers – Dalen Terry, F, Arizona
As the draft prolongs, the predictability decreases. More so than most prospects, Terry’s draft stock has fluctuated wildly since the start of the process. However, seeing him sneak into the lottery when the cards get turned in on Thursday night would be far from the biggest draft night surprise.
Off the bat, Terry is already in a good spot. He has demonstrated the ability to handle the ball and can defend multiple positions using his athleticism and length. In today’s NBA, that gives him a pretty high floor to work with. The next step in his game is shooting. Terry shot just 35% from three in his two years with the Wildcats, attempting just 120 threes in 63 career games. His 80th percentile rank in jump shot scoring last season should give teams hope about his long-term potential as a perimeter scorer. If he can boost his three-point shooting split to the 37-39 range, Terry will make Cleveland fans very excited going forward.
