3 NBA Rookies Outperforming Their Draft Position

With the NBA season well underway, the league has gotten a good look at the rookies of the 2021 draft class. The early results are encouraging, with players like Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes having profound effects on their teams’ success from Day 1. However, the impact of players selected later on the draft has not flown entirely under the radar. Here are three rookies who are outperforming their draft position.

Chris Duarte, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers

Selected: 1st Round, 13th overall

2021-22 Averages: 12.9 points, 4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steal

2021-22 Shooting Splits: 42.1 FG%, 34.3 3P%, 74.4 FT%

The nuance surrounding Duarte coming into this draft was his age. After spending two years at Northwest Florida State (a community college) and then two years at Oregon, Duarte was already 24 entering the draft. That number made it difficult for teams to justify taking him within the top-10. While the issues of his age still stand, Duarte would undoubtedly go within the top-10 in a redraft based on his performance so far this season.

Duartes’ offensive versatility has been what’s most impressive so far this season. After watching his Oregon tape, his NBA role projected as an elite catch and shoot, off-ball player. Since arriving in Indiana, he has shown that he can be so much more than that. According to Synergy, Duarte is averaging 0.78 points per possession as the pick and roll ball handler. He has shown an array of finishes around the basket and good footwork on pull-up jumpers and floaters.

Putting Duarte on ball has also turned him into a de facto playmaker for the Pacers. Duarte ranks 5th in assists on the Pacers and 9th amongst all rookies. He often makes the right play and can make intelligent reads coming downhill. Playing alongside strong big men like Turner and Sabonis has been great for his development.

Duarte Defense

His defensive tenacity translated well from the college level. Duartes’ defended field goal percentage of 58.2% is the second-best in the rookie class behind only Evan Mobley. He also ranks 5th in steals out of the 2021 class. He makes smart plays both on and off the ball, contributing to the Pacers’ 108 defensive rating. It would be hard to see a team like the Warriors passing up on Duarte in a redraft, knowing what we know now. He may never be any better than he currently is, but his veteran savvy and smart playmaking are valuable to any team looking to compete.

Herb Jones, F, New Orleans Pelicans

Selected: 2nd Round, 35th Overall

2021-22 Averages: 6.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks

2021-22 Shooting Splits: 46.2 FG%, 37 3PT%, 76.7 FT%

There is no doubt that Herb Jones flew under the radar leading up to the 2021 NBA Draft. A wing prospect out of Alabama, Jones received little first-round attention and fell to New Orleans at 35. Flash forward to 25 games into the NBA season, and Jones has played the 6th most minutes of all rookies. Granted, he’s getting time for a Pelicans team that is going nowhere fast, but Jones is showing why he could’ve been a valuable piece to one of the playoff teams that were picking at the end of round 1.

His offensive stats are pretty underwhelming. But what Jones does at the defensive end is Matisse Thybulle-esque. A pesky defender with a 7-foot wingspan, Jones’s defensive performance has been nothing short of spectacular for a rookie. He takes real pride in his on-ball defense. “To be great on defense, you have to really want it,” Jones said in an interview with The Athletic. “You have to play with a different kind of aggression, a different kind of desire.”

Going Against the Best

The rookie is always tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best ball-handler, and he has been up to the task more often than not. Through three games against Minnesotas’ Anthony Edwards, Jones has held him to 2-14 from the field, according to NBA Stats. Through two games against Utah’s Donovan Mitchell, Jones held him to 3-14. His movement on the perimeter and long arms are highly disruptive to opposing players’ games.

Jones is limited to spot-up shooting in the corner and cutting off the ball in the halfcourt. However, his defense also generates a solid amount of offense. Jones ranks 10th in the league in deflections with 75. A very aware weakside defender, his pokes and strips in the open court generate easy buckets for him going the other way.

His offensive game is progressing slowly, with flashes of strong cuts to the baskets and inconsistent shooting. Jones is shooting 38% on catch and shoot attempts from three this season. A strong mark, but it is at just one attempt per game. He will never be a dominant offensive player. However, if he develops into a semi-consistent, spot-up shooter, it will justify coaches to play him for meaningful minutes even when games get close.

Brandon Boston Jr., G, Los Angeles Clippers

Selected: 2nd Round, 51st Overall

2021-22 Averages: 5.9 assists, 1.5 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.7 steals

2021-22 Splits: 40.5 FG%, 38.7 3PT%, 84.2 FT%

This is an early projection, but a lot of teams are going to regret letting Boston Jr. fall this far. His talent is already shining through, proving without a doubt he should’ve never fallen this far.

Boston has been in the national spotlight for some time now. A standout player for Sierra Canyon just two years ago, Boston was projected to have a huge freshman year at Kentucky and be picked inside the lottery come draft night. Neither prophecy came true, as Boston struggled mightily in his lone season with the Wildcats and fell to the 51st pick on draft night. While the situation isn’t ideal, Boston is showing now the talent that scouts saw back in his Sierra Canyon days.

Boston’s Offensive Ability

His minutes have been limited, but his offensive ability is evident. Boston has displayed a wide variety of finishes around the basket, using his long arms and stellar body control to finish through contact. He is very composed, coming off screens and out of the pick and roll. Boston gets to his spot well and is capable of hitting tough shots from the midrange.

The next two stages of development are Boston’s shooting and playmaking ability. By the nature of his limited minutes, neither of these skills have really been developed for him this season, but there have been flashes. His release is slower than the average shot, but he has shown good range. From what we have seen so far, he has the ability to make it both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations. As his feel for the game grows, his playmaking will inevitably get better as well.

Boston still has a long way to go to become a consistent NBA player. At just 185 pounds, his body is still not built to handle the rigors of a 72 game season. His 11 turnovers to just seven assists also expose his lack of NBA experience thus far. With that being said, Boston has shown he has the talent that should’ve justified a higher selection in last year’s draft.

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