After a season that some considered to be a sophomore slump, Tyler Herro claimed he was on the same tier as Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Ja Morant. While he didn’t necessarily have the stats to back this up at the time, he’s flashed the potential to be on that same level this season. Herro is currently averaging 20 points, 4.8 rebounds, and shooting 37% from beyond the arc. He’s the only player in the league averaging 20 points or more off the bench, and is considered the heavy favorite for Sixth Man of the Year. While his rookie contract doesn’t expire for another two years, Herro becomes eligible for a max extension this offseason.
In order to determine what type of contract Herro could get in the future, we should look at young players who recently received max extensions. Last August, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander signed a 5 year, $172 million rookie max extension. He jumped from 19 points and 3.3 assists in his sophomore season to 23.7 points and 5.9 assists the year after. In comparison, Herro went from 15.1 points and 3.4 assists in his second year to 20 points and 3.9 assists in his third year. Both players made impressive statistical improvements along with being provided bigger roles within their respective teams. But does this really mean Herro is worth $30 million or more a year?
Ultimately, if Herro does receive an extension from Miami, I think it would be similar to the one Jaren Jackson Jr. got from Memphis. Jaren could be considered the 2nd or 3rd best player on a top 3 seeded team in the West. Despite injuries, he’s been instrumental to their success in the past few seasons and was rewarded with a 4 year, $104 million extension last October. I believe Herro is in a similar situation, and should receive an extension of that caliber in the offseason. Tyler’s had his ups and downs within the organization, but if he can finish out the season with the same consistency he started with, it would be hard not to reward him.
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