The gift and curse of drafting so well is that while you end up with a talented young group, it’s challenging to keep everyone. John Collins is the first domino to fall regarding keeping the Hawks’ young core coming off an unexpected playoff run.
The front office could talk themselves into keeping this group around based on the run they had. If health went their way, they could be in the NBA Finals right now. However, it might not be easy to keep the group if the Shams Charania report is accurate. Charania reported that “Across the league, many believe Hawks forward/center John Collins increased his value as a maximum contract-caliber player during Atlanta’s run to the Eastern Conference finals.”
It’s possible (maybe even likely) this report is a ploy by another party to either get Collins’ value up or scare the Hawks. It’s hard to imagine a team forking over the max to Collins.
After this postseason run came to an end, owner Tony Ressler admitted that he is “not sure we’re going to be able to keep every single player that we want to keep.” However, he also added that he hopes to come to a “fair agreement” with Collins, which doesn’t sound like the Hawks value Collins as a max player, but it is also the correct assessment.
Collins’ fit on the Hawks always felt like a problem that would eventually separate the two. However, he’s proven that he does work with the roster. As a draft prospect, part of the intrigue about Collins was his flashes of a perimeter skillset and touch. Collins has exceeded that analysis. He’s developed into a respectable shooter on volume and can put the ball on the floor and attack closeouts. Not only can he finish over guys, but he can hit pull-up jumpers and floaters.
In this past playoffs, Collins tapped into his defensive tools. He’s athletic enough to hang on the perimeter but also long enough to guard interior presences. His overall tenacity and energy were crucial for the Hawks’ run. He proved that he can play at the four the whole game and is willing to sacrifice for the team.
Even then, does his current skill set justify the Hawks matching an aggressive four-year offer sheet? What about a max extension? His number dipped in the playoffs even though he was a more winning player. That correlation doesn’t bode well for a player who supposedly is worth around the max.
He is a decent shooter with the confidence to take shots, but teams are still willing to help him. He’s best as a roller where he has the coordination to make decisions in the short roll, but he can also catch lobs with verticality. The thing is, the Hawks have Capela, who can only play that rim-running role. So Collins is relegated to popping more on the double drag screen, which is one of the Hawks’ main sets.
There’s probably a better fit out there in a perfect world. Someone who is a better on-ball defender and can shoot the ball with more consistency, but every team wants those types of guys. Unfortunately, they aren’t easy to come by. That player also might not bring the same intangibles that Collins brings: energy, intensity, leadership (remember the report where he called out Trae Young for not trusting his teammates enough). Travis Schenk also called him “the heart and soul of the team.” According to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, “Collins is the emotional leader inside the locker room for Atlanta. He’s the one in the middle of the huddle prior to the game, breaking it down, the guy who’s unafraid to speak his mind, both good and bad.“
Looking at the 2021 free agency class, Collins is probably the best player realistically available for the Hawks at the forward spot. They could decide to downgrade to a more veteran option like Paul Milsap or Otto Porter Jr, but will that help put the Hawks over the hump if the Finals is their goal? How will it impact team morale? Especially for a young organization coming off a Conference Finals appearance, what signal does it send that they don’t resign one of the key players of their team that has been there throughout the horrible tanking years?
If the Hawks are looking at ways to cut spending from their young core, Kevin Huerter or Cam Reddish is probably the most feasible option. They are pretty redundant in the secondary creator position with those two and Bogdan Bogdanovic. So it’s an area they can afford to cut back on.
There is no correct answer to the John Collins extension. If he gets the max and the Hawks match the offer sheet, it limits their flexibility down the line to improve the team or keep other young pieces. But, on the other hand, if they let him walk, they lose a leader, a face to the community, who on the court compliments the team so well. They also might not have the means to replace Collins with a player that matches his skill set.
Unless the deal ultimately hampers the franchise’s future, the Hawks should do their best to keep Collins.
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