The tumultuous head coaching carousel continues to spin this offseason. Seven coaching jobs have opened up and some are more desirable than others. Two of the higher-end jobs were taken by well qualified coaches.
Often times with rankings and lists, the difference between certain things is so marginal that they essentially belong to the same tier. That’s why this list groups certain jobs into distinct lists meaning there is a clear separation from a Tier D job to Tier C. Spanning across the tiers is a running list that ranks the teams within each tier.
Some of the factors included in this rankings are roster talent, organizational stability, and whether or not the team has a path to improve.
Tier D: A Tough Climb Up
7. Washington Wizards
The Wizards are stuck in the mud. They have two All-Star caliber players in Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, but their supporting cast was a major point of weakness. Somehow, they scraped into the play-in tournament and made it to the eighth seed where they were promptly gentlemen swept by the Sixers.
The Wizards are in a tough situation. There is pressure for a new coach to win to some extent since they have Westbrook and Beal. However, weighing over the next season is Beal’s contract situation. The Wizards have failed to make any sort of playoff run in recent memory, and Beal is in the prime of his career. He has a player option after next season, and there’s a strong possibility he opts out and walks in free agency. In order to get some sort of value, Beal could be on the move within the next year.
Additionally, the Wizards’ young prospects don’t project to push the needle in the near future. Rui Hachimura is their most developed guy, but he’s stuck positionally. He has a decent midrange shot and can post-up a bit, but he struggles on the defensive. Hacihmura is too small to play the five, but he doesn’t have the speed or shooting to play the three or four. Deni Avdija could be a nice secondary playmaker and brings some defensive versatility, but he’s only in his second year. Daniel Gafford was a nice pickup at the deadline as a role player, but they also have Thomas Bryant under contract next season.
There’s not much wiggle room for the Wizards to improve externally. It’s hard to imagine them acquiring a player or two that will solidify them as a middle of the pack playoff team.
The Wizards’ job could have a superstar on his way out and a team on the decline in two seasons.
6. Orlando Magic
The Magic are in a clear rebuild. The focus for whatever coach that comes in is development. The Magic have a ton of young players. Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Issac have improved every season and look to be cornerstones. Cole Anthony looks like a steady hand at the point guard position with room to improve. RJ Hampton is a talented, athletic guard. Chuma Okeke is a smart defender with shooting ability. Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba are young centers that have modern big man skills in its early stages.
For an unproven coach (similar to Mark Daigneault in Oklahoma City), this job has a solid amount of young talent and no pressure to win. But the bottom line is that this is a full blown rebuild with a roster compromised of players on their rookie deal or just signed their extension. At the end of the day the team isn’t going to win a lot of games. For a coach’s overall win loss record, the Magic job might not be a good look.
The Magic are ahead of the Wizards even though the Wizards might win more games because of their potential to develop. A coach is going to get a lot more leeway in this job if players are improving. The Wizards are in a lost space and could soon get even more lost if Beal departs.
Tier C: The Middlers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
It feels like the Blazers’ roster has run its course. The same core group has made the conference finals once, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to return unless injury luck favors them. If the Blazers fail to get past the first round once again, Neil Oshey could be ousted as well as the coach once the new regime comes in. There’s a ton of pressure to succeed right away in this job.
Looking at the roster, they have veteran talent to make the playoffs. Anything is possible with Lillard at the helm. However, there are a few key problems with the roster.
First, their on-ball defense is a huge area of concern. They acquired Robert Covington last offseason, but he’s better as a help defender. Norman Powell is a solid on-ball defender, but he lacks the height to contain bigger wing creators. Their backcourt often gets punished in the playoffs as teams have targets to go after in Lillard and McCollum.
Another thing that has hurt the Blazers is over relying on Lillard to create offense all the time. CJ McCollum has been that guy to supplement Lillard in the past but injuries and inconsistency over the past two seasons have hurt him.
A coach can do things to improve their perimeter and reliance on Lillard, but it’s mostly on the front office to give the coach options to work with. If there isn’t a significant roster upgrade, the new coach is going to run into similar issues that Terry Stotts did come playoff time.
4. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers’ used to have the reputation of being tough-minded defensive team that came to play every night. They might not have the best talent, but they’ll outwork you. Last season, whether it be COVID, injuries to key players, or not buying into Nate Bjorken as coach, the Pacers lost that edge. A new coach will have to come in and rejuvenate the roster.
The Pacers have a deep roster that has yet to have the chance to put it all together. They have multiple guys that can come in and fill in a role around their main offensive pieces in Malcom Brogden, Caris LeVert, and Domantis Sabonis. They have a lot of interchangeable guys talent wise and positionally, which bodes well for their depth in a playoff series.
While it’s clear ownership doesn’t have championship aspirations and rather sustain medium levels of success, missing the playoffs isn’t acceptable.
Update: The Pacers hire Rick Carlisle
Carlisle is a tactial genius who always gets the most out of his teams. With the Luka iteration of the Mavericks, he was occasionally able to incorporate the clever set, but most of it was high ball screens and letting Luka create. That’s not a slights towards Carlisle. When you have a superstar of that caliber, you give them the ball and let them go. With the Pacers, he’ll have a better opportunity to use more actions and sets to put their key players in positions to succeed.
The Pacers have a deeper roster in a weaker conference. They have a better shot to make the playoffs than the Blazers and make a bit of a run.
Tier B: Young(-ish) rosters looking to make the leap
3. Dallas Mavericks
Before the Tim Cato report about the push and pull for power in the front office, the Mavericks were a top tier coaching job. The sudden resignations from GM Donnie Nelson and long time head coach Rick Carlisle raise concerns over the stability of this job. Still, the Mavericks are more like a Tier A2 team based on talent or more like the talent of one guy: Luka Doncic.
The Mavericks have unfortunately matched up with the Clippers twice in the first round the past two seasons. Both times they proved Doncic creating everything offensively is enough to challenge one of the most talented teams in the league. However, the Mavs need something new. The heliocentric playstyle has worn down Luka and impacts his effectiveness at the end of games.
A coach that comes in is going to have to convince Luka to rely on his teammates. That might not be all on the coach, however. The Mavericks still need to surround him with players that can take off the playmaking burden. From there, a coach can be really creative in how he uses Doncic off-ball to get him an advantage before he catches the ball.
Just the fact that a coach has Luka Doncic on his side is enough to make this one of the best job openings in the league. However, the recent information about the front office instability puts the Doncic era on more questionable ground and puts them behind the Pelicans.
2. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have a core ready to make a jump into the playoff pack. Zion Williamson’s game excelled acting as more of a playmaker. Brandon Ingram has proved himself as one of the premier scorers in the league. If Lonzo Ball returns, he’s improved his jumpshot. He’s developed chemistry with Williamson and feels like a great fit next to Ingram and Williamson. Nickeil Alexander-Walker looks promising as a crafty scoring guard off the bench. Kira Lewis can get by anyone in the open floor with his speed. The sheer talent on their roster is going to be fun to work with.
The issue with the roster has to do with their two veterans: Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams. Bledsoe’s game took a steep decline on both ends after getting traded to the Pelicans. His defensive slippage indicates a lack of interest for a team that isn’t competitive. He’s a slasher on offense, but he isn’t a shooter which limits spacing. Adams is a well-liked teammate and a bruising interior presence with underrated passing ability, but he’s on a large deal. The Pelicans extended him to a two year, $35 million deal that limits their flexibility. While he’s a solid player, his deal looks like a negative value contract already.
The team on paper looks like they should be one of the best defensive teams, but the opposite was the case. Whether it be youth or not buying into Van Gundy, they were loose on that end. Williamson was a culprit of lackadaisical defense especially. The new coaching staff will have to keep him accountable and help improve his awareness.
Stan Van Gundy was let go after one season after reports of him clashing with players on the roster. A coach that comes in will also have to gauge how he can approach certain guys in order to win the locker room. They will also have to figure out how to maximize shooting in lineups around Williamson and Ingram with limited personnel.
However, the talent at the core of their roster puts it ahead of a lot of other organizations. If a coach can figure out how to get the most out of Bledsoe and Adams while also improving their defense, they’ll be in this job long term.
Tier A: Emerging Team With Championship Hopes
1. Boston Celtics
The most desirable coaching job goes to the Boston Celtics. No one would’ve thought this job in particular would open up. Brad Stevens appeared to be one of the few coaches locked into their positions. But after a front office shuffle, the Celtics have a head coaching vacancy.
Update: The Celtics hire Ime Udoka
Udoka has a a talented roster to work with that’s hungry to get back to the conference finals and take a leap. With their two-way wing sueprstars, the Celtics have ton of lineup versatility. They solidified their frontcourt by acquiring Al Horford in exchange for Kemba Walker. Now they have room to resign Evan Fournier and possibly someone to play at point guard. They could also go down the route of playing Marcus Smart at the one since Brown and Tatum have taken steps playmaking wise. Horford and Robert Williams can playmake from the five as well.
It feels like this team is going to take a huge jump next season if health finally goes their way. Udoka was a great selection as coach. He’s been apart of championship-level coaching staffs with the Spurs and Nets. He was a well-liked teammate when he played in the mid-2000s. Player coaches typically garner a better trust with players.
The Celtics are in an outstanding position to solidify themselves as a Eastern Conference powerhouse. With Udoka at head coach, they have a defensive tactician with the ability to lead. Their talent has proven themselves in the past, which makes them the most desirable job available.
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