The 2020-21 Denver Nuggets’ will be remembered for Nikola Jokic’s MVP season, Jamal Murray’s untimely injury, and the ascendance of Michael Porter Jr. What fans will want to quickly forget, though, is the self-inflicted wounds in third quarters throughout the season that ultimately cost the team a shot at being great.
Reflecting on the season, it is clear that Michael Malone and the Denver Nuggets have a glaring issue that must be addressed if they want to compete for a championship in the coming years: halftime adjustments.
Sunday night, the Phoenix Suns completed the 4-0 sweep of the Nuggets, winning 125-118. The NBA Most Valuable Player Jokic was ejected midway through the third quarter, and despite a valiant comeback effort at the end, the Nuggets fell shy of winning a single game in the series. Jokic’s ejection was just the cherry on top of how undisciplined the team played in the third throughout the season.
There are many reasons for the sweep, some of which can be attributed to bad luck alone. When Murray went down with an ACL tear in mid-April, many wrote off the team that made the Conference Finals just last season. However, Jokic cemented his MVP season by powering the Nuggets to a 13-7 record down the stretch.
Another reason is that the Nuggets were just outmatched by the explosive Suns led by Devin Booker and Chris Paul. After the game, Jokic seemed to tip his hat to the victors for this very reason.
“Sometimes you need to accept the loss, sometimes someone can beat you,” said the Serbian big man in his postgame press conference. “Accept it and try to be better.”
Regardless of injuries and matchups, the reason the Nuggets lost these games is not too dissimilar to how they came up short in the majority of their 25 regular-season losses.
In those games, the Nuggets only had a positive scoring margin in the third quarter of six games. The other 19 losses saw the Nuggets watch their leads or hopes of comebacks start to slip in the third.
Yet, even in victory they still struggled directly after halftime. Of the Nuggets’ 47 wins, they were still outscored in the third 16 times. A team that secured the third seed in the West and was tied for the 5th highest winning percentage in the league should not be 32-35-5 in the third quarter.
In all other quarters during the regular season, the team excelled, especially in the first quarter, where they were +243 on the season. In the second and fourth quarter, they were +64 and +50 respectively. But they always came back down to Earth in the third, netting an abysmal -57.
This past year, the Nuggets ranked 23rd in the league in third-quarter scoring margin, according to TeamRankings. The only other 2021 playoff team to average a negative scoring margin in the third quarter was the New York Knicks, who ranked 22nd. The rest of the playoff teams ranked in the top-16 of the league.
By comparison, their first-quarter dominance in the regular season ranked first in the league.
The third-quarter curse
The third-quarter struggles started in the season opener for the Nuggets against the Sacramento Kings. In the narrow overtime loss, the Nuggets saw a seven-point halftime lead become a deficit entering the final frame after being outscored 36-24 in the third. Defensive breakdowns, poor shooting, and an inability to get rebounds killed them. This was an ominous warning about what was to come.
In both games against the Brooklyn Nets, the Nuggets saw their 15-plus-point halftime leads crumble in the third. In mid-January, they were -16 in the third, and later in the season, they were -8. Both games ended in six-point losses.
The Nuggets had a chance to avenge their Western Conference Finals bubble loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in their first meeting of the season in early February. Instead, after a slew of turnovers and poor defense, they ended the third -20 and went on to lose by 21-points.
And while there are many terrible third quarters to look at from the Nuggets, none is more painful than the April 12 game against the Golden State Warriors. Stephen Curry dropped 53 points that game – 18 of which came in the third quarter. The Nuggets were outscored 43-22 in the third as they were unable to contain Curry and exited the quarter down 16 after being up at the half.
In an attempt to win an already lost game in the final minutes, Michael Malone kept his starters on the floor and Murray tore his ACL. In that game, the Nuggets not only had their worst third quarter of the season, but they also lost their franchise point guard.
Overall, the Nuggets were outscored by eight or more points in the third quarter 16 times this season – once every four-and-a-half games.
Even in wins, the Nuggets struggled in the third. Remarkably, they were still able to win five games where they were outscored by double digits in the third quarter.
Regular season struggles persist in the postseason
But Malone figured out his team’s biggest flaw in time for the playoffs, right? Well, if you watched the games, you know the answer is a resounding no. Denver continued its trend of losing the third quarter in the playoffs spectacularly – going 7-2-1 through the first two rounds.
Against the Portland Trailblazers in game one at home, the Nuggets saw a three-point halftime lead slip to a double-digit deficit going into the fourth and eventually lost the game by 14.
Again, in Portland’s only other win of the series, they outscored the Nuggets by 17 in the third. Norman Powell scored double-digits in eight minutes and the Nuggets had their worst offensive quarter of the playoffs.
Things did not get any better for the Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Suns. Not only were they swept in the series, but they were also swept in the third quarter. Denver finished -10, -9, -10 and -5 across the four games in the third.
The Nuggets were not able to keep up with the Suns offensively throughout the series, nor were they able to slow them down on defense at any point.
Porter Jr. epitomized the team’s struggles, routinely being beat on defense and seeing his regular-season shooting percentages plummet from 54% from the field to 38%. His three-point percentage also dropped from 45% to 38%.
Throughout their 10-game postseason run, Denver was outscored by 63 points in the third quarter.
It is hard to place blame for a teamwide trend, even when it is happening so regularly. Shooting percentages may have dipped or the Nuggets’ defense may have eased up. Any number of problems may be the cause of the team’s third-quarter failures. The only answer – or at least the one that will somewhat appease fans – is that there is a lack of halftime adjustments being made.
Malone coached this Nuggets squad to be one of the best first-half teams in basketball this year. Yet, his team’s third-quarter deficiencies are so atrocious that they brought Denver down to the 20th ranked team in the NBA in second-half scoring margin (in the regular season and playoffs combined), even though they rank 5th in fourth-quarter scoring margin.
The Nuggets clearly had no solutions for their problem during the season or in the playoffs. If there was a fix, they would have likely found it before Sunday night.
Going forward, however, the answer is clear. If Malone and his staff cannot figure out the issue, the Nuggets must hire an assistant coach specializing in second-half adjustments to solve the problem for them. If the Nuggets fall short again next season – assuming they head into the playoffs with a healthy Murray – it is not too crazy to think Malone’s successful tenure in Denver will end before his contract does after the 2022-23 season.
The Nuggets’ championship window is now. If Malone cannot get it done, a fleet of candidates will be knocking down the doors of Ball Arena to have a chance to lead an MVP in Jokic, a lethal point guard in Murray and one of the league’s brightest young scoring talents in Porter Jr. to a championship.
Malone now has 127 days to figure something out before the 2021-22 NBA season begins on October 19.
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