Three Second Year Players Poised for a Breakout Season

With the open of the preseason, this past weekend, NBA basketball is officially back underway. With most teams’ stars resting for the preliminary games, the preseason is a chance for some of the younger players to show off their improvement since the conclusion of last season. The 2020 NBA Draft was loaded with talent, but most guys never got consistent opportunities with their respective teams. Here are three second-year players that are ready to break out this season.

Kira Lewis Jr., PG, New Orleans Pelicans

2020-21 Per Game Averages: 6.4 points, 2.3 assists, 1.3 rebounds, 0.7 steals

2020-21 Shooting Splits: 38.6 FG%/33.3 3P%/84.3 FT%

It was surprising to see Lewis come off the board to the Pelicans on draft night. The Pelicans were deep at the point guard spot and players that better fit the Pelicans’ needs like Aaron Nesmith and Saddiq Bey were still on the board. Flash forward one year later and Lewis has a chance to be a major player for New Orleans this season.

While it was interesting to see the Pelicans pick Lewis, it in no way discredits his talent. He has shown some fantastic playmaking ability, as he makes quick reads on offense to generate easy baskets for teammates. Everything is always a little easier when playing with Zion Williamson, and Lewis uses that to his full advantage more often than not.

Lewis does a great job of leveraging Williamsons’ presence to generate easy buckets for other teammates. Check this clip from last season against the Kings. Sacramento doubles Zion in the post, leaving Lewis alone in the weakside corner. Once he gets the skip pass, Buddy Hield is forced into a hard closeout, and Lewis calmy pump fakes, drives by, and slips a pass to Jaxson Hayes for the slam.

Lewis Defense and Fit with the Team

Lewis’s explosion on cuts and off the dribble really opens up the offense to all his teammates. His activity on the defensive end is also an asset for the Pelicans. Lewis is lightning fast in the open court, the speed that dates back to his days at Alabama. He is always alert on the weak side, ready to poke the ball free and get into transition for easy buckets ahead.

The Pelicans let Lonzo Ball walk in free agency this offseason, which appeared to be an invitation for Lewis to take over as the lead guard. They then went and signed Devonte Graham to a four-year deal. While Graham is another guard added into the mix, he actually can fit alongside Lewis in an off-ball role. According to Cleaning the Glass, 77% of Grahams made three-pointers last season were assisted. Keep in mind, this was alongside another ball-dominant guard in LaMelo Ball.

The Pelicans took Lewis in the lottery for a reason. His elite athleticism and explosion off the dribble and when finishing at the rim is second to none. With more consistent playing time in Year 2 and improvement in his perimeter shot, Lewis could be a big factor for New Orleans this season.

Deni Avdija, G/F, Washington Wizards

2020-21 Per Game Averages: 6.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals

2020-21 Shooting Splits: 41.7 FG%/31.5 3P%/64.4 FT%

The Washington Wizards’ experiment with the backcourt of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal did not go according to plan. While the team made the playoffs for the first time since 2018, they went out in five games versus the Sixers. That was all Westbrook needed to see, as he forced a trade to the Lakers in the blockbuster deal of the summer. Losing Westbrook will hurt the team, but it will also allow for the emergence of Avdija.

Westbrook ranked in the 98th percentile in usage last season according to Cleaning the Glass. When surrounded by the right players, Westbrooks’ ball-dominant play can be effective. However, it wasn’t great for Avdijas’ development as an on-ball shot creator. In the opportunities where Avdija did have the ball in his hands, he demonstrated great touch around the basket. His floater game and feel out of the pick and roll was encouraging when he was given the chance.

The other thing the Wizards lose without Westbrook is play-making. Westbrooks assist percentage ranked 1st in the NBA, assisting on 47.4% of the Wizards field goals last season. While there is no way Avdija is going to make that up by himself, his play-making has the potential to help fill that void. Whether it was receiving the ball in the post with his back to the basket or out of the pick and roll, Avdija made a lot of nice reads that generated easy buckets. for teammates.

Avdijas’ Defensive Outlook

Avdija also projects as a plus defender and only continues to improve. He ranked in the 76th percentile last season in points allowed per possession by opponents in the halfcourt according to Cleaning the Glass. Avdija moves well at 6’9, with a strong frame that allows him to hang with threes or fours. He can also switch onto shifty ball handlers and stay with them step for step.

Avdijas’ success is mostly predicated around the departure of Westbrook. While the loss of a perennial All-Star and walking triple-double is never good, it will allow for more rapid development of Washingtons’ next big star.

Aaron Nesmith, SF, Boston Celtics

2020-21 Per Game Averages: 4.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals

2020-21 Shooting Splits: 43.8 FG%/37 3P%/78.6 FT%

Nesmith is fighting for playing time on a team that is firmly in the running to win the Eastern Conference. So while his stats are the least impressive of the three players, his potential impact for the upcoming season could be huge for Boston.

Nesmith was by far the best shooter coming out of the 2020 draft. He averaged 1.639 points per catch and shoot jump shot in the half-court at Vanderbilt, which ranked in the 100th percentile according to Synergy. There were flashes of this elite shooting last season. Running off of pin downs from Robert Williams or dribble hand-offs with Jayson Tatum generated easy shots for Nesmith, which he capitalized on more often than not.

Nesmith is a pesky perimeter defender. At 6’6 with a plus wingspan, he fights through ball screens well and is always in passing lanes. Nesmith ranked in the 75th percentile for opponents shooting percentage from three, as opponents shot 1.5% worse when he was on the floor. Nesmith can be a real contributor to a Celtics defense that ranked 15th in defensive rating last season.

Nesmith’s real detriment to playing time last season was Evan Fournier. Fournier left the Celtics this offseason to sign a four-year deal with the Knicks. His spacing next to Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be something the Celtics need come playoff time. His off-ball movement and shooting threat coming off of screens also creates more space for the star players to operate. While he struggled for minutes last year, look for the former Vanderbilt man to get serious minutes for this Boston team this year.

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