The Most Valuable Player award has always been a heated topic of debate amongst the fans, media and even the players. This year’s race is no different. Through the first month of the season, Stephen Curry seemed to have the award locked up. No one was going to catch him. Now, a few uncharacteristically bad shooting months later, his name hardly gets brought up in these conversations. For a while after that, Kevin Durant took a commanding lead and looked like the best player on planet earth by far, putting a depleted Brooklyn Nets squad on his back and leading them to one of the best records in basketball. Durant then got injured and has now missed too many games to be considered for the award. Since then, there have been too many names to keep track of in the running. Some names are just thrown into the conversation even though they have no real chance of winning. Guys like Chris Paul, Devin Booker and LeBron James are all on the outside looking in. Luka Doncic has been on a tear in the second half, but it might be too little too late for him to join the race. So let’s take a look at the five guys who can actually win MVP this season and what they have going for them and what they don’t as the season winds down and the race for Most Valuable Player heats up.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
25.4 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 7.9 APG
The Case for MVP
It’s fitting to always start this debate with the reigning winner. Jokic has been just as impressive, if not more than last season’s campaign. Jokic had the 13th highest single season Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of all time last year.If the season were to end today, Jokic would have the 2nd highest single season PER ever. He got better. The Nuggets have been without their second and third best players in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. the entire season, but Jokic has dragged them into firm playoff standing. He currently leads his team in all five major stat categories, something that no one else in the league is doing. He is 6th in the league in assists per game, averaging 7.9 per contest as a center. That’s more assists per game than point guards like LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant and Stephen Curry. Jokic is one of a kind on the basketball court and has a strong case to win back to back MVP awards this year.
The Case to not win MVP
Team success. This question seems to come up every year. Should we give the award to the guy who puts up the best numbers even if his team isn’t at the top of the league in the standings? Russell Westbrook won it in 2016 and his team was the 6th seed. The Nuggets are currently sitting in 6th place. There’s no question that Jokic has been having a Westbrook type year. In fact, he’s way better. The question is, have the voters stopped giving credence to the stat-stuffing players whose teams aren’t contending for a title? If the Nuggets can find a way to push for a top seed and a home playoff series, there’s no question Jokic will win his second MVP in as many seasons.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
29.5 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 4.4 APG
The Case for MVP
Through all the drama in Philly surrounding the Ben Simmons saga, the 76ers found themselves towards the top of the Eastern conference heading into the All-Star break. This is entirely thanks to Joel Embiid. Embiid is leading the league in scoring this year. The last Sixer to lead the league in scoring was Allen Iverson, a former MVP. The last center to lead the league in scoring was Shaquille O’Neal, also a former MVP. He’s a nightmare for every team in the league. It doesn’t matter how good your center is. If he’s an elite rim protector, Embiid will pull him out of the paint and launch triples. If he’s quick enough to stay in front of Embiid, he will bulldoze his way to the basket and draw foul after foul. If he’s strong enough to battle down low, Embiid will just go right around him with his handle and crazy quickness for someone his size. When healthy, which he has been this season, Embiid is the most unstoppable offensive force in the game.
The Case to not win MVP
Embiid is neck and neck with Jokic at the top of this race, but the addition of future hall of fame point guard, James Harden, will certainly impact the voters’ view of Embiid’s value to his team. It’s rare that a player on a team with two MVP caliber players will win the award. They usually take away from each other’s production. In this case, it’s going to be interesting. Embiid has had most of the season to solidify himself as a candidate before Harden even arrived, but if Harden’s play seriously affects Embiid’s production down the stretch of the season, he might lose appeal as the most valuable player in the league.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
29.4 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 6.0 APG
The Case for MVP
The media has made it clear that the race for MVP is between Jokic and Embiid, but not so fast. The argument for Jokic is his incredible efficiency. Well, there’s only one player in NBA history who could say they have a higher single season PER than Nikola Jokic has so far this season. That guy is named Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is having the greatest season ever according to that stat. The argument for Embiid is his physical dominance and the fact that he is virtually unguardable. The same is true for the guy whose nickname is “The Greek Freak”. He’s a matchup nightmare. He can drive past anyone with his length, he can finish through contact at the rim, and he’s improved tremendously in his shooting ability. He’s the only player in this conversation who is an elite defensive player. He has a good chance of winning his second Defensive Player of the Year award this season. The bottom line is that he’s the most complete basketball player in the league, arguably having the best season of his career, so why wouldn’t he win MVP?
The Case to not win MVP
The worst part of MVP voting is the fact that vote fatigue plays a massive role year to year. The argument gets made over and over when talking about Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Both of them should have won many more MVPs throughout their careers. They were the best players in the league and added the most value to a team by far. The same is true for Giannis. He won back to back MVPs in 2019 and 2020 and finished in 4th in 2021. There’s no reason for him to be that low in the voting following two dominant MVP seasons. He didn’t get worse. His numbers didn’t go down. Don’t expect this year’s voting to be different. The voters will ignore his excellence because they are accustomed to it.
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
28.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG
The Case for MVP
The most surprising storyline in the league has to be the resurgence of DeMar DeRozan. It’s rare to see a player break out and become a dominant All-NBA 1st Team type player in his 13th season. DeRozan was bottled up in San Antonio for three years, where he was clearly fooling everyone into thinking that he was on the decline. He was secretly mastering and perfecting his craft under the auspices of the great Greg Popovich. When he signed with the Bulls this summer, there were a lot of people questioning the move, saying that he wouldn’t fit alongside Zach LaVine and that he was washed up. Well, they were dead wrong. DeRozan is having by far the best season of his career. His unique style of play for today’s game makes him so special. He gets it done in the mid range, a very unpopular shot in today’s NBA. He had a record setting stretch of 8 straight games with 35 or more points on greater than 50% shooting from the field. The previous record holder was Wilt Chamberlain who had 7 straight such games. Anytime someone is breaking Wilt’s records, they are doing something unheard of. DeRozan has the Bulls at the top of the Eastern conference this season, something that no one, not even the Bulls front office that signed him, could have predicted.
The Case to not win MVP
The MVP has become an award of all-around excellence on the court. DeRozan is a scorer. He can facilitate a little and isn’t a bad defender, but he’s a scorer. Compared to other guys in the conversation, he just can’t compete. He’s the only guy on this list who hasn’t recorded a triple double this season. He’s not a double double machine either, with only five on the season. The question for DeRozan is if the voters are going to turn back the clock and vote for someone who doesn’t fill up the stat sheet. There is precedence for players winning MVP with this style of play. Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant are two names that come to mind who have won the award in the past two decades. Maybe the voters go old school with the award this year and give it to DeRozan.
Ja Morant, Denver Nuggets
27.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 6.6 APG
The Case for MVP
Morant is the most exciting and electrifying player in the league, and it’s not close. The comparisons to prime Derrick Rose have been thrown around a ton, and rightfully so. Morant has an insanely quick first step, a shifty handle and incredible leaping ability. Morant has an insanely young Grizzlies squad in third place in the West right on the heels of the veteran Golden State Warriors. Morant is a very good facilitator. He sees the floor extremely well for a point guard his age and has the size to be able to make passes that a lot of smaller guards can’t make. He manipulates pick and rolls to perfection. He starts, stops, changes speeds constantly, always keeping the defenders on their heels. He has an “It-Factor” quality to him that can’t be described without watching him play. It seems that every time he plays against an established superstar, he takes the opportunity to show the world that he is better. We got a glimpse of his capabilities last year, but he has taken a leap from “this guy can be an all star” to “he’s going to win multiple MVPs”.
The Case to not win MVP
It’s not his time yet. This isn’t really a good argument. If he’s deserving of being the MVP, he should win MVP. But the reality is that players have to pay their dues and their time will come after a couple years of being in the conversation. LeBron James didn’t win an MVP until his fifth year in the league. This is Morant’s third, and he’s no LeBron James. No one is going to be named MVP in the same season that they are named to their first all star game. It just doesn’t happen. Although Morant is exciting to watch and he has his team outperforming nearly everyone in the league, he’s just too young as of now to be named Most Valuable Player.
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