The New England Patriots, the best NFL franchise of the 21st century, are at a fork in the road right now. After a 2-1 start in the post-Tom Brady era, the Patriots are in a tailspin, having lost three games in a row. Sitting at 2-4, the Patriots face a critical road game against the first-place Buffalo Bills (5-2 record). If the Patriots lose, rumors will continue to ratchet up about veterans being traded for future draft picks (Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported this week the team would entertain trade offers on almost any player). If the Patriots win, they will only be 1.5 games behind Buffalo (they are three games behind right now). At any rate, I believe a number of reasons are at play for the Patriots struggles of late.
Injuries/Covid
Injuries are one factor behind the Patriots struggles. Julian Edelman, the Patriots best wide receiver (who has 620 receptions for his career), has been listed with a knee injury the whole season. He has played through it but has struggled of late, catching no more than three passes over his last four games. In fact, he had a knee procedure on October 29th and is expected to be out for a period of time (according to Adam Schefter of ESPN). The Patriots have also dealt with injuries in their running back room. Opening day starter Sony Michel, who rushed for 117 yards in Week 3 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders, went on injured reserve the following week with a quad injury. Talented running back Damien Harris, who has averaged 5.4 yards per carry, missed the first three games when Michel was healthy. The Patriots inability to have their two best running backs at the same time is an issue because it puts more of a burden on versatile running back Rex Burkhead to carry the ball instead of chipping in the passing game (which is a weak spot for the Patriots).
Covid has played a role in the Patriots struggles this season. The Patriots lost linebacker Dont’a Hightower before the season, as he opted out of the season due to the ongoing pandemic. Hightower, a 2012 first-round pick, is one of the longest-tenured members on the Patriots. He is a multidimensional player who can stop the run and rush the passer (he had 5.5 sacks last season and 25.5 for his career). Losing him has further thinned out their linebacker core (along with free agent departures such as Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins). The Patriots lost quarterback Cam Newton for a game due to a positive Covid test. Over the last two games since Newton has not thrown a touchdown and has been intercepted five times (including three interceptions last week vs. the San Francisco 49ers in a 33-6 loss). I believe Covid set Newton back because he missed three weeks (between missing the Week 4 game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs and the two-week delay until the Patriots faced the Denver Broncos in Week 6 due to a Covid outbreak with the Patriots). This situation disrupted Newton’s rhythm in terms of getting game and practice reps, which is especially tough given the fact Newton didn’t have a preseason to get his feet wet with the offense.
Roster issues
The Patriots have a variety of roster limitations. Their defensive line and linebacker core is a weak spot on their defense, as the Patriots have been particularly vulnerable against the run. In fact, the Patriots rank 27th in rushing yards allowed (they allowed 197 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground vs. the 49ers last week). Additionally, the Patriots have just 9 sacks in 6 games, which is tied for 27th with the Seattle Seahawks. Their weakness in those spots can be explained away in part due to roster turnover (ie, free agency, and Covid). The most egregious weak spot on their roster is in their passing game as far as the wide receiver and tight end positions. The Patriots have had a slow erosion of talent; after the 2017 season, the Patriots let clutch, productive slot receiver Danny Amendola leave via free agency. That same offseason, they traded talented speedster Brandin Cooks, to the Los Angeles Rams. In the spring of 2019, the Patriots let Chris Hogan, another solid deep threat, leave via free agency. The Patriots in 2018 and 2019 brought in a carousel of receivers who either didn’t make the roster (i.e., Jordan Matthews, Corey Coleman, Maurice Harris, etc.) or who were successful for a brief stint before flaming out and getting released (i.e., Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, Mohamed Sanu). In the wake of all these departures/misses, the Patriots top receivers are aging Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry (a receiver who has struggled to get separation thus far in his career), and Damiere Byrd (who has been a pleasant surprise, on pace for a career-high 48 catches). The Patriots tight end position has been a black hole for them. After the retirement of future hall of famer Rob Gronkowski in March of 2019, the Patriots were totally unprepared to deal with it, as they had no highly drafted tight ends in-house to replace him. In the 2019 NFL Draft, the Patriots passed on talented tight ends such as Irv Smith Jr. (Minnesota Vikings) and Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills). The Patriots starting tight end Ryan Izzo has only 7 catches in 6 games this season. The Patriots did draft two tight ends in this year’s draft (Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene), but they have combined for one catch this season (though, in fairness, they are rookies and have only played sparingly).
From a big picture standpoint, some of the Patriots roster shortcomings can be tied to their recent track record in the draft. Bill Belichick, as a roster-builder (he serves as both coach and de facto general manager of the Patriots), had a string of mediocre at best drafts between 2014-2018 (the jury is still out on the 2019 and 2020 drafts). There were some good picks (i.e., James White in 2014, Trey Flowers in 2015, Isaiah Wynn in 2018, etc.), but there were some glaring whiffs, including 2014 first-rounder Dominique Easley (who was cut after just two seasons), 2015 second-rounder Jordan Richards (only 7 starts in 4 seasons), and 2016 second rounder Cyrus Jones (who played 12 games over 2 seasons with the team). Now, the Patriots were able to still win three super bowls in the 2014-2018 time frame. However, I would argue that those teams were largely carried by players such as Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Devin McCourty, Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, etc. whose arrivals predated the mid to late 2010’s. With so many key veteran departures, the lack of young talent coming through the draft pipeline has finally been exposed this season.
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