Quarterback is one of the two positions along with wide receiver that have a great amount of depth. This is one of the many reasons to wait on drafting a quarterback in the early rounds and instead draft guys at the running back position as well as the wide receiver position. Even waiting until the final round of your draft will have a lot of very good quarterbacks still on the board in one quarterback leagues.
The point difference between the number one quarterback in 2020 (Josh Allen) and the number 10 quarterback (Lamar Jackson) was 63.28, which is only an average of 2.6 points per game. With that small of a gap in PPG, using a second or third round pick on a guy like Patrick Mahomes or Allen instead of using it on a top 20 running back will leave that position very thin with little to no depth.
When I am drafting, I usually tend to fill out all or almost all of my bench with running back and wide receiver depth to prepare for injuries, guys underperforming, or whatever might happen over the course of 18 weeks. Drafting a guy who is ranked after Mahomes and Allen in rounds 5-8 could be very beneficial because Das Prescott, Kyler Murray, and other players in that range have the potential to be the number one scoring quarterback, but the difference in depth at other spots and the PPG for guys in the top 10 is not worth the risk.
Rounds 11-14 are generally the right time to grab your guy, and I try to avoid rostering two quarterbacks. The only time you should be rostering two quarterbacks is if your starter is on a bye and you need to stream someone on the waiver wire, in which case it is smart to play the matchups game. Three guys to look at drafting in that 11-14 round range all have a lot of upside and should be top 10 and possibly even top five guys at the position come the end of the season.
Jalen Hurts
The first guy I am looking at is Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts took over for Carson Wentz after he was benched by Philadelphia in week 13 last year against the Packers, and Wentz has since been traded to the Colts. So much of what makes a quarterback great in fantasy is the ability to scramble outside of the pocket and get points with their legs, and that is the best part of Hurts’ game at this point in his career. New Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni will also draw up designed runs specifically designed for Hurts to keep it himself in the multiple looks that he will throw at a defense. Hurts averaged 11.5 carries per game in the four starts that he made last season, and that number should stick in the new offensive scheme that Sirianni will deploy, including more carries at and around the goal line. Hurts is still refining his ability to be a pocket passer but Devonta Smith, the Eagles first round pick and 2020 Heisman Trophy winner, should be able to give him some easier looks with his speed on the outside. Hurts has the ability not only to outperform his average draft position as QB11 in the 12th round (ESPN.com) but has a chance to be a top-five guy and possibly have a Lamar type of sophomore season and be the top scorer.
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford was finally able to get out of Detroit and go to a team that has a great offensive-minded coach in Sean McVay and two great receivers to throw to. Stafford was a top-10 quarterback in his early years when he had Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to, but since Johnson’s retirement he has fallen out of the top-10 and has really only been rostered in 14-team and larger leagues. With the trade to the Rams, that is no longer the case as Stafford will once again have weapons around him and an offensive line that can give him time that will make him a QB1 in 10 team leagues. While Jared Goff struggled the last two seasons under McVay you have to believe that was largely based on the lack of talent that Goff possesses and is why McVay wanted to go out and get a guy like Stafford, someone he can trust to make the right reads and not turn the ball over. Goff averaged 19.4 points in his best season in 2018, while Stafford averaged 21.5 in his best season in 2011. The quality of the players around him should help Stafford average close to or even more points than he did in 2011. One concern is going to be the running game for Los Angeles and the ability to set up play action and open the field with the loss of Cam Akers but Darrell Henderson should be able to produce enough that it will not be a big problem. Stafford, currently going 13th among quarterbacks and in the 12th round on ESPN should outperform that mark and finish in the top-10.
Joe Burrow
The third player that I am looking to target in drafts is second-year man Joe Burrow of the Bengals. Burrow is coming off an ACL tear, but all indications point to him being ready to go for Week 1 against the Vikings. Burrow is the riskiest of these three because of the injury last year and playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league but if that line can keep him upright, he should put up big numbers. The weapons at wide receiver will help Burrow tremendously as he will have breakout rookie from a year ago Tee Higgins, veteran Tyler Boyd, and rookie Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow’s college teammate at LSU and number five overall pick in the draft, to throw the ball to. The Bengals defense will be one of the worst in the league, which will allow Burrow to play from behind and throw the ball 35 plus times a game (he averaged 36.7 before his injury in 2020). Burrow is very talented and he showed that in his rookie season and if the Bengals can give him enough time to throw the ball to one of his three very talented receivers he should put up big numbers.
Some other guys I like in the later rounds of the draft are Ryan Tannehill, Trevor Lawrence, and in deeper leagues Ryan Fitzpatrick. Waiting on the quarterback position is what all fantasy managers should strive for in drafts this season and work on building a roster that has a lot of depth because injuries and bad performances are inevitable.
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