Anyone who has closely followed the Giants this season may recall where the organization was just over one year ago at this time.
Eight games into the 2020 campaign, after a 25-23 loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers (Nov. 2), the Giants were a 1-7 football team quickly solidifying a top spot in April’s draft order in their first season under head coach Joe Judge and third under GM Dave Gettleman. Injuries to top talent like Saquon Barkley ravaged any hope of significant offensive production, the offensive line was still in shambles for a third year, and second-year quarterback Daniel Jones had no ball security or true weapons to throw to, outside of Darius Slayton.
Then all of a sudden, the defense, led by defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, that ranked 11th in the league that season became the Giants’ biggest weapon. Holding opponents to 21.7 points and 351 yards per game, while forcing a total of 25 turnovers throughout the season, they helped power the Giants to a four-game win streak, including a 17-12 upset of the Seattle Seahawks with Colt McCoy filling in for the injured Jones.
Not only was the season an unconventional one due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the entire NFC East division would finish below .500, putting the Giants in an unusual predicament where they were competing for a division crown up until the primetime game of Week 17 with a 6-10 record.
They fell just short, but the outcome of that second half of the season appeared to have an impact on how John Mara and the organization made decisions surrounding change within the front office during the offseason.
Mara, citing the select personnel gains under Gettleman and the 70-year-old’s working relationship with Judge, offered a vote of confidence towards his GM and resorted to keeping him around despite a third losing season and 15-33 record since the start of 2018. Gettleman once again had his hands in the drafting process and free agent business of the Giants, a power very few outside of the organization wanted him to have.
Fast forward to today, and the Giants find themselves in a very similar situation. A slow start to the season found them circling at the bottom of the NFL at 1-5, a fourth consecutive losing season impending with wide scale personnel changes looming. The injury bug has been the biggest obstacle for the Giants in forming their offensive identity as skilled players such as Barkley, Golladay, Toney, and Shepard return to the IR weekly. Three of their losses have come down to undisciplined mistakes that led to an opponent field goal at the end of the game.
Yet, with all these issues, the Giants are winners in two of their last three games as they head into their Week 10 bye. Jones has found a way to play some of his cleanest football in the pocket and display his running (and catching) abilities in the open field. Devontae Booker has stepped up his rushing contributions in the absence of Barkley, earning 100-yard rushing performances in the last two games.
Graham’s defense–now ranked 25th in the league–has started to look more like its 2020 self and has found ways to positively impact the team’s chances for success. Over the last three weeks, they’ve cut down opponent scoring, particularly in the final two minutes of a half, opponent net yards per game to 314.6, forced six turnovers and earned nine sacks with an improved pass rush.
Now with a 3-6 record, although not impressive by any measure, the Giants find themselves in another surprising mid-season playoff scenario, sitting only one spot back of the second wild card seed currently held by the Atlanta Falcons (4-4).
In a sports market that clings onto any ration of hope for their teams to be successful, an unusual sniff at the postseason picture in an anomalistic bottom half of the NFC has people talking about what the second half mindset of the Giants should be.
One side wants the Giants to put all their cards on the table and win a majority of their eight remaining games to make the push. The other is concerned over the same story as last year repeating itself: the Giants backing down on necessary organizational change in light of fluke success.
In particular, change at the general manager position currently held by Dave Gettleman in his fourth season. A man who’s misleading tenure spans 1,416 days and has yet to spend one of those days above the .500 mark.
When reading that fact alone, there is no reason to doubt the concern that has riddled the Giants fan base since Gettleman took over.
Joining the organization in late December 2017, after a 3-13 season and mid-season firing of the head coach, the former Panthers GM had numerous objectives on his plate but one goal stood out to him and decided his hiring.
“We got to fix the O-line, let’s be honest. Let’s not kid each other,” Gettleman said when he was hired.
Countless times Gettleman promised to bring “Hog Mollies” to a team that has been bereft of a solid offensive since the 2011 Super Bowl. That was supposed to be his prowess, rebuilding offensive lines like he did with Carolina en route to their Super Bowl 50 appearance.
Instead, his offensive lines have never scratched their way into the top 25 (entered this season dead last (#32)) and have ranked in the bottom eight in both pass and run blocking. In 2020, the Giants offense ranked 31st in passing first downs, 26th in running first downs, and 26th in percentage of drives ending in an offensive score (33.5%) behind a line that couldn’t offer more than a couple seconds of protection to the quarterback on a given play before it was blown up.
Rebuttals to the offensive line’s horrible stretch under Gettleman could include injuries to bright spots like center Nick Gates early this season, opt-outs from players like Nate Solder due to COVID-19, and youth that needs time to develop. The Giants’ line has also lacked much of any veteran presence to mentor the younger linemen and provide experienced protection for Jones to have more time in the pocket.
Still, the reality is Gettleman has had four years to fix the offensive line, the focal point of his hiring. Every team deals with injuries and young players in need of development at a given position. The problem here is that none of Gettleman’s selections have displayed exponential growth, outside of some potential in left tackle Andrew Thomas (now on IR), and none of his linemen signings have finished with a PFF grade of over 70.
One can’t let the offensive line’s mediocrity overshadow the rest of Gettleman’s shortcomings either. While it is fair to say he has helped the defense make incremental gains by working with Joe Judge to hire Graham as defensive coordinator and acquire names like Leonard Williams and Blake Martinez, Gettleman has failed to surround Jones with enough quality talent on the offensive side of the football.
There were good acquisitions in wide receivers Kenny Golladay and first round-draft pick Kadarius Toney, yet neither of these players have been able to stay on the field through an entire 60 minutes. In fact, the Giants haven’t played a single game with a completely healthy offensive unit since Week 3, when the first injuries in what has been an endless carousel began with the departures of receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton to hamstring injuries against the Falcons.
Not to mention, whatever offense is out there can’t sniff the endzone enough to be successful. The Giants currently average 19.9 points per game (24.0 for opponents) and trail opponents in total touchdowns by seven. They also have a -37 offensive points differential this season, their best in that category in Gettleman;s tenure.
I could go on, but put it all together, and Dave Gettleman’s GM tenure has nothing to show but three losing seasons and a fourth one likely, even if the Giants steal a few more games in the second half. The team under his front office reign has a record of 18-40 overall, and are 21-52 since the start of the 2017 season which is the worst record in the NFL in that span.
No matter where the second half of the season takes the Giants–and nobody should discourage them from making a playoff push even for the sake of experience and growth–they cannot let the guise of incremental success convince them to take a voucher on a fifth year of the Gettleman-led front office.
John Mara and Steve Tisch have tried tirelessly to keep operations in-house, to follow the “Giant Way” when it comes to front office and coaching hires, and it has more times than not failed right in front of them. Gettleman will always have a connection to the organization due to his contributions to their Super Bowl runs, but unfortunately it’s clear his best years are behind him and his capability to do what he set out most to do isn’t going to bear fruit under his watch.
The Giants have been highly criticized for their lack of continuity at leadership positions despite their history of having a patient and loyal ownership group. This is precisely why they want to give Joe Judge and Daniel Jones more time than two and three seasons respectively, especially in light of numerous factors that are out of their control.
Yet, some of those same factors are in the control of Gettleman, who has fumbled the ball and thus proven his release is more than justified.
Numerous NFL executives are under the impression that the Giants are sifting through the GM candidate market quietly, and that search could earn more attention during the week off from competition. John Mara also reportedly rejected an opportunity to double down on his vote of confidence when speaking to reporters last week, according to ESPN.com’s Jordan Raanan.
If both truly are the case, then it’s time Mara lays down the gavel at the end of the 2021 season and does what is necessary for his organization to thrive beyond the superficial level. He can take the victories where they come but the time for believing in Dave Gettleman has run out.
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