On Feb 7, 2021 the Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55. Ironically enough, Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is the host site for this season’s Super Bowl, marking the first time a team has played a Super Bowl in its home stadium. There could be tremendous fireworks offensively in this game, as the Bucs and Chiefs are two of the highest powered attacks in the NFL (beyond their gaudy point totals, the Chiefs and Bucs rank 1st and 7th respectively in yards gained). The biggest storyline, however, is the quarterback matchup between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Brady, 43, is gunning for his seventh Super Bowl title, stiff-arming Father Time and disproving the absurd narrative that he was a product of Bill Belichick’s system. Mahomes, in only his third season starting in the NFL, is attempting to win his second consecutive Super Bowl, and further pad the tremendous accomplishments he has already attained (highlights include a 50 touchdown season in 2018 and trips to at least the AFC Championship every year he has started). This game is also a rematch from November 27, when the Chiefs defeated the Bucs 27-24 in Tampa, Florida. At any rate, before getting into the nuts and bolts of the game, let’s recap how the two teams got to this point.
The Chiefs rolled throughout the regular season. KC finished with a 14-2 record, which was actually a two win improvement from their 2019 season. It wasn’t always easy for the Chiefs, as their final seven wins were all by six points or less. At any rate, they were good enough to finish with the top seed in the AFC, giving them a bye and home field advantage during the playoffs. The Chiefs, in the Divisional Round, faced off against the improving Cleveland Browns. They jumped out to a 19-3 halftime lead in that game. However, they lost Patrick Mahomes to a concussion in the second half. The Browns mounted a strong comeback, but the Chiefs made enough plays in the end with backup quarterback Chad Henne (including a 5 yard completion on 4th and 1 to Tyreek Hill) to beat Cleveland 22-17. In the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs faced off against Buffalo Bills. After the Bills jumped out to a 9-0 first quarter lead, the Chiefs exploded for 21 unanswered points in the second quarter. The Chiefs coasted to a 38-24 win, a score that didn’t reflect how dominant the Chiefs were. Kansas City put up 439 yards of offense, and their two best skill position players (Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce) combined for 22 catches for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (after adding Tom Brady in the offseason) had high expectations this season, and certainly did not disappoint. The Bucs had their ups and downs during the first three quarters of the season; they were 7-5 after 12 games, which included being swept by the rival New Orleans Saints. Beyond that, there was a lot of noise about cracks in the relationship between Tom Brady and head coach Bruce Arians. Regardless, the Bucs won their final four games, clinching a wild card berth in the process. Tampa defeated Washington on the road 31-23 in the wild card round, racking up 507 yards of offense. The following week, the Buccaneers upset the Saints 30-20 at the Superdome, as they forced 4 turnovers (including 3 interceptions by future hall of fame quarterback Drew Brees) and did just enough offensively to capitalize multiple times on advantageous field position. In the NFC Championship, they beat the Green Bay Packers 31-26 at Lambeau Field. It was a balanced team win for Tampa, as the Bucs scored four offensive touchdowns. Defensively, the Bucs were not necessarily great, but held the Packers to only two touchdowns on their four red zone drives (including holding Green Bay to three points on their final drive while leading 31-23).
Offensively, the Bucs should be able to move the ball against the Chiefs. The Chiefs do have two excellent pass rushers in defensive tackle Chris Jones (7.5 sacks) and defensive end Frank Clark (6 sacks). Still, the Bucs offensive line is strong, and Brady quickly gets rid of the ball, so the Kansas City pass rush should be held in check. Tampa has terrific wideouts in Mike Evans (one of the best deep threats in the NFL) and Chris Godwin (who can be a deep threat and a possession-type of receiver). If former All-Pro Antonio Brown cannot play with his knee injury, the Bucs still have a solid deep threat receiver in Scotty Miller, who scored a 29 yard touchdown seconds before halftime in the NFC Championship against the Packers. The Chiefs have some talent at cornerback such as Bashaud Breeland, but they don’t really have a lockdown corner such as Jalen Ramsey. The Bucs have two solid tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, who are good complements to the other stars in the Buccaneers passing attack (though some of that can be negated by the coverage skills of All Pro free safety Tyrann Mathieu). Tampa Bay should be able to run the ball, as they have a pair of stud running backs in Leonard Fournette (a 26 year old who has multiple 1000 yard rushing seasons on his resume) and Ronald Jones (who rushed for 978 yards this season and was 8th in yards per carry). The Chiefs run defense has been porous, particularly in the postseason, as they have allowed 6 yards per carry in their two playoff games. The Bucs best chance of winning is by controlling the game in terms of time of possession. Doing so would allow their defense to rest and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands .
When the Chiefs possess the football, they should have success offensively against the Tampa defense. First, I should concede that, in the trenches, the Chiefs will have their hands full. Not only did left tackle Eric Fisher tear his achilles in the AFC Championship, but the Bucs have a ferocious pass rush. They had 48 sacks this season, with excellent pass rushers such as defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, middle linebacker Devin White, and edge rushers Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. However, Mahomes’ ability to scramble for yardage on the ground and make throws while improvising outside the pocket (similar to a guy like Brett Favre) will make it hard for the rush to actually get to him. The Chiefs have talented running backs, especially rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. However, their running game is like a changeup to their fastball, which is their passing game. The Bucs have decent corners, including Carlton Davis (4 interceptions) and Jamel Dean (who received a 76.6 grade according to Pro Football Focus’ criteria). However, as a whole, the Bucs pass defense can be exploited; they ranked 21st in passing yards allowed this season. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have one of the best receivers in the league in Tyreek Hill, who is also one of the fastest players in NFL history. They also have Travis Kelce, one of the elite tight ends in the NFL, and a potential hall of famer. The scary thing is that the Chiefs have even more weapons in their arsenal beyond those two standouts. Sammy Watkins, who has said he is optimistic about returning from a calf injury, is a solid complement to Hill and Kelce. Finally, receiver Mecole Hardman is another player with blazing speed (beyond being a great deep threat, he had a 50 yard run on a reverse in the AFC Championship).
This game is the dream scenario for the NFL as far as being a marquee quarterback matchup between the GOAT (Tom Brady) and the future of the NFL and potential heir to Brady’s throne (Patrick Mahomes). Both teams have great talent on the offensive and defensive sides of the fooball. Yet, I think that this game will be a high scoring affair due to the masterful quarterbacks sharing the field on Sunday (going against the old cliche that “defense wins championships”). Ultimately, I believe that the Chiefs offensively will be too much for Brady and his crew to match. I am predicting a 33-27 victory for the Chiefs, and the crowning of the next dynasty in the NFL.
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