Welcome to the fantasy playoffs. The regular season is now in the rearview mirror, and it is time to look ahead for what is to come over these next challenging, trying, and grueling three weeks of fantasy (four for some).
What will be the real challenge coming is fear of the unknown. Injuries will most certainly play a part, as they always do, but now more than ever the COVID-19 pandemic is really taking its toll around the NFL. On Monday 37 players tested positive for the virus, and on Tuesday it is expected that the league will get at least 25 more positive tests. Those who have tested positive in the last few days include Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Jalen Ramsey. During this playoff period, winners of championships may be decided by if their teams can stay healthy or not.
But that is in the future. It is time to look back on the week that was, and what can be learned as the journey towards fantasy football immortality begins.
Quarterbacks
The rise of Taysom Hill as a fantasy contributor isn’t much of a surprise to those who have followed him whilst with the New Orleans Saints. Sean Payton’s true swiss-army knife, he can do it all as he exhibited versus the New York Jets. Hill was solid enough with his passing, completing 15 of 21 for 175 yards, but with his legs is where fantasy managers who had the confidence to start Hill made their money. Hill had 11 attempts for 73 yards and two touchdowns, including a 44 yard run in garbage time. What Hill is able to do with his legs and his arm is what makes him so valuable for fantasy managers. A tougher matchup awaits for Hill on Sunday Night Football against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, but Hill’s floor is so solid that even in a tougher matchup he will be a very tough sit for managers in week 15.
Jimmy Garoppolo has to be one of the most interesting discussions in fantasy right now. Very quietly, Jimmy G has put together a sneaky good string of performances for the San Francisco 49ers. Since week 9, Garoppolo has had at least two touchdowns in every start bar one in week 12. Analyzing his future schedule, the 49ers get the Falcons at home, travel to Tennessee, are at home again versus the Texans, and then at the Rams. For week 17 championship leagues, that schedule is simply too good to ignore. Garoppolo is going to be touted as a high end streaming option for those that will need it, and it isn’t out of the question that Garoppolo just based on that schedule could win people some fantasy championships in the next three weeks.
It has now become absolutely impossible to trust Cam Newton going forward. While the return story and subsequent feature role he was given was nice for fantasy, he simply has crashed back down to earth in a very hard way. Newton only threw for 178 yards versus Atlanta, a defense that has been putrid this season, and now features in a platoon situation with fellow quarterback P.J. Walker. For those that want to win championships, Newton is simply a must fade for the remainder of the season.
Running Backs
Rashaad Penny, welcome to the party! Penny was sensational on Sunday versus the Houston Texans, rushing for 137 yards with two touchdowns. What is even more encouraging for the former first round pick is his touch totals compared to other Seahawks running backs. Penny out-touched backfield partners Alex Collins and DeeJay Dallas 17 to 8 to 2. This is very encouraging for fantasy managers that now, just maybe, there is a workhorse for Seattle. A prime waiver wire pick up for week 15, he is a running back that should be started with RB2 confidence this week versus the Rams.
A conversation needs to be had about the two Denver Broncos running backs, Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Both guys were exceptional Sunday, combining for four total touchdowns in a route versus the Lions. This most likely will not happen every single week where both running backs get theirs, however both can be started quite confidently. Denver wants to run the ball, and both running backs are good enough to hold their own. It will be interesting moving forward to see if the Broncos continue to keep Gordon as heavily involved with Williams given his long-term future likely lies elsewhere.
Very simply put, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott just isn’t healthy right now and his performances show it. Elliott hasn’t totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage since week 6, and when asked about Zeke’s injured knee Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said “[Zeke] is fine, we just wanted to give him a bit of a rest, he could have gone back out there”. Fantasy managers have to temper the expectations for Elliott moving forward, as he simply cannot be trusted as a RB1 with this bad knee. Zeke is a RB2 going forward, with a touchdown probably needed for him to return value given the limited work.
Wide Receivers
One of the best receivers in fantasy right now is a guy that barely gets any mention at all, and that is Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow was terrific once again on Sunday, tallying his third straight 100 yard effort versus the Chiefs. The only concern here with Renfrow is does this run continue when Darren Waller inevitably returns from a knee injury. That is for a later discussion, but the here and now is Renfrow should be started as a WR2 in PPR leagues with supreme confidence. He has been nothing short of brilliant for fantasy managers.
This next section will be tricky to analyze given it can change at any notice due to their ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. But, let’s talk about the Los Angeles Rams and their wide receiver situation. Cooper Kupp is terrific, that needs no mentioning as he is gunning for the position’s triple crown this season (leader in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns). After that, it is now murky. Odell Beckham Jr. was one of the 37 players who tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday, and now figures to be out Sunday versus the Seahawks. Since joining the Rams, Beckham Jr. has been simply terrific. In the last three weeks, Beckham Jr. has a touchdown in each contest and his numbers keep going up as his familiarity with the playbook becomes more and more solid. Now with no OBJ Sunday, it figures to be Van Jefferson who gets elevated. Jefferson caught a bomb on Monday night for 52 yards. Jefferson has been impressive in his own right, catching a touchdown in his last three contests as well. Jefferson should be started versus Seattle as a high-end WR3.
Ugh. That is the reaction for when it is time to talk about the Seattle Seahawks. Fantasy managers who have Tyler Lockett, they are in dreamland. For fantasy managers who have D.K. Metcalf, they are simply wondering what the hell is going on here. Metcalf and Russell Wilson simply have not been on the same page all year long, while Wilson and Lockett have. It is tough to trust Metcalf going forward, however he becomes a better start if he gets to face the Rams without Jalen Ramsey on him. As for Lockett, he is a must start moving forward as he has continued to show he is the top dog in this Seattle passing attack.
Tight Ends
That is much better from Dawson Knox! Knox, in a very negative game script for the most part versus Tampa, had a real nice day for Buffalo totaling 7 catches for 60 yards and a score. This is the nature of the tight end position, if he scores he will be top 10 at the position for the week. Knox came in at three this week for all tight ends, an encouraging sign for fantasy managers. He gets a very nice matchup this week at home versus a reeling Carolina Panthers team.
Some may be concerned regarding the lack of targets for Pat Friermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the conversations surrounding Friermuth wouldn’t be happening if he reeled in the touchdown on the last play of the game to turn an average outing into a monster outing. Friermuth continues to be as safe of a play as it gets at the tight end position, once again maybe needing a touchdown. However, his numbers suggest he is as likely to score as any other tight end in fantasy with six touchdowns in his last eight games and seven total on the year.
Do not panic about Travis Kelce. Please, do not panic. This is a game in which the Chiefs flat out destroyed the Raiders, and they did not need to use Kelce. There will be more needed from Kelce on Thursday Night, as the Chiefs take on the Chargers in what should be a shootout. Kelce is still Kelce, and he will continue to be a monster for fantasy managers throughout the fantasy playoffs.
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