The Patriots and Bills match-up in Buffalo this Sunday in a game that has serious implications for the division. Both teams are trending in opposite directions, as the Bills are 3-3 in their last six games, while the Patriots were 6-0 in that stretch. When the season started, a slow start for the Patriots and Dolphins made the division seem like a given for the Bills who have been on the rise these past few years. As of week 11, that is far from the case.
This is a good test for the Patriots, who have obviously been playing well over their six game winning streak. The Patriots have figured out their offense line, gotten healthy, and made progress to develop the versatility of the offense. These things bothered the
team and led to some losses early in the season. But with those issues figured out, a game against one of the conference’s elite teams will show us if this version of the Patriots has the ability to win against the league’s best when it counts.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a player that threatens defense in multiple ways. He is a threat with his legs and arm, and a big body that stands well in the pocket. However, he has thrown six interceptions with just seven touchdowns in games against Bill Belichick. Allen is one of eight quarterbacks in the league with double digit interceptions, and has shown to be careless with the ball in spots. As the league leader in interceptions as a team with 19, the Patriots will look for takeaways to keep the Bills from getting in a rhythm offensively and limiting their possessions.
According to TeamRankings, the Bills have allowed 126 rushing yards a game over their last three contests. The Patriots usually try to establish their offense through the run with their lethal Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson combination in the backfield. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones completed all 11 of the play-action plays for 169 yards against the Titans last Sunday. Getting the Bills to commit to stopping the run by having success on the ground early will give Jones similar chances to have opportunities in play-actions, which has clearly been a strength of his so far this year.
The Patriots are dealing with safety Kyle Duggar being placed on the COVID-19 reserve list, which most likely keeps him out of the game this weekend. Duggar is leading the team in tackles this season with three interceptions as well, so his absence is not a small one and could be felt against good Bills receivers such as Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasely. Linebacker Jamie Collins practiced this week as he works his way back from the injured reserve list. The Bills are pretty much fully healthy for this game.
Not only is this a good test for the Patriots to see if they can hang against good teams in the playoffs, but it is also a meaningful game in terms of seeding. The rookie quarterback and surging defense is a good story, but can they put it together when they really need it is a question that still needs answering for the Patriots. This game could really alter home field advantage and a potential bye in the playoffs, which both teams want in their favor. A hostile environment in Buffalo will make it tough, but the Patriots push for seven straight this Sunday and a chokehold over the division, potentially the conference as a whole.
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