In the first week of Saturday games in the NFL, the Patriots will find themselves in Indianapolis for a primetime game against the Colts. Of course we have to mention the Deflategate saga and the Manning-Brady battles when we talk about these two teams matching up. What’s changed? Well, both teams find themselves with new quarterbacks who are in year 1 with their respective clubs. But like those days in the mid to late 2000’s, they match up with a lot on the line.
The Colts currently sit in a playoff spot as a six seed at 7-6, but have a number of teams with comparable records gunning for those three wildcard spots. For the Patriots this is another game against an AFC playoff team and now as the conference leader, yet another opportunity to get closer to that one-seed bye in the playoffs.
In terms of the match-up, let’s get the obvious out of the way. Jonathan Taylor is the Colts running back and also the league’s leader in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns (16), and average yards per carry (5.6). The Patriots find themselves at 20th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, a stat that suggests the Colts will try to do as much damage as possible on the ground.
With Carson Wentz at the helm of the Colts offense, there’s even more of a reason for the Colts to prioritize the run against the ball-hawking Patriots defense that ranks second in the league in turnover differential. Wentz has been known to make questionable decisions with the ball, and maybe turn it over on occasion. While he only has six interceptions this year, his history at the position suggests the Patriots may have some chances to take possession from their opponent.
On the other hand, the Colts actually lead the league in turnover differential. Mac Jones has protected the ball as well as one could hope a rookie would so far this season, but look for the Colts to force Jones to make decisions and throw under duress for a chance to take possession away. After some early season fumble trouble for the Patriots, their ball security in that regard has greatly improved and will need to continue against an aggressive Colts defense.
According to Colts linebacker Bobby Okereke, the Colts plan to “attack the run and try and make them one-dimensional.” They have the personnel to give the Patriots some trouble running the ball. Interior defensive lineman Deforest Buckener and linebacker Darius Lenard top that run stopping personnel, but the Colts have big, physical players across the board. While it may not be the smartest of things to give Bill Belichick insight into your game plan and bulletin board material for his team, it’s certainly a predictable approach from the Colts given their successes forcing turnovers this year.
This is going to be a physical, tough game that the Patriots have really only found themselves in against the Titans, but without running back Derrick Henry that team was a shell of itself. This week the Patriots face a top tier offensive line highlighted by center Ryan Kelly and guard Quetin Nelson. Controlling the line of scrimmage will be a chess match in this one, as both teams bring physicality to the table it may come down to scheming and discipline.
For the Patriots, they’ll look to continue what they’ve been doing in recent weeks: dictate pace, control possession, and minimize mistakes. With Damian Harris out, look for Rhamondre Stevenson to make another noticeable impact as the lead running back on Saturday night if the Patriots are to win.
Depending on the outcome of the Chiefs and Chargers game being played on Thursday night, this game could dictate the AFC’s top seed and what’s to expect in the playoffs. Every game at this point has playoff implications, and this one is no different as the Patriots look to stay hot on the road against a potential playoff opponent.
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