The Patriots (6-4) look to extend their winning streak to five games on the road against the Falcons (4-5) that have weaknesses the Patriots have been good at exploiting this season. While it is a short week, this is a game that the Patriots should win.
The Falcons have allowed 25 or more points in six out of nine games, and 122 yards rushing per game. On the other hand, the Patriots have scored 24 or more points in their last six games and averaged 120 rushing yards a game, according to TeamRankings. Translation: run the ball.
Coming out of last week’s game against the Browns, the Patriots were pretty healthy and sustained no injuries. Going into a short week, that’s a positive to have. Damien Harris appeared at practice this week but he has been in the concussion protocol since week nine against the Panthers. Currently it’s unclear if he will play. Rhamondre Stevenson scored two touchdowns and ran for 100 yards last week against the Browns, so Harris’ potential absence could allow the rookie running back to have another big week.
TeamRankings also has the Falcons at last in the league in terms of sacks per game at just 1.2. This should translate to Mac Jones being comfortable and protected in the pocket, aiding him in attacking a less than intimidating opposing defense. Mix the run and pass together as they have been during the winning streak, and the offense should find little resistance.
The Falcons offense is the highlight of their team. However, they host the Patriots without their total group. Former Patriot wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, who has been a sensation as a gadget wide out and running back in Atlanta this year, is a game time call with an ankle injury. With their top receiver Calvin Ridley still out due to a personal situation, that could leave the number three draft pick tight end Kyle Pitts as the top threat on Thursday night for the Patriots defense.
Luckily Bellichick’s usual is to isolate a difference maker on the offense side of the ball, and look to shut him down as much as possible. This game will feature some of that method, as Pitts presents a major threat as a big but speedy and skilled tight end. Without their top skill players, the Patriots should be able to cover and pressure quarterback Matt Ryan of the Falcons consistently.
For the Patriots, the game plan this week writes itself. Force the Falcons to stop the run, and when they load up for it take advantage of the play action. Defensively, limit the big plays and Pitts’ impact on the game as a pass catcher. Shutting down one of Ryan’s few offensive targets could lead to sacks and a long day for the Falcons offense. It’s a game plan that the team has the tools to get done.
We’ve seen weird things happen in Thursday night games, just recently the AFC contender Ravens lost to the struggling Dolphins. This is a game that the Patriots should win and might need to win in a tight AFC playoff race. While they’ve turned their season around, there’s a lot of games left and looking past this one on a short week is something the team may not be able to afford come year’s end.
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