Last week was nightmarish for me when it came to my picks. It was opposite day in the NFL last Sunday and my record took a hit because of it. Let’s get through this recap as quickly and painlessly as possible. My only bright spot last week was the 49ers beating and covering against the Jaguars. The Cowboys and Chiefs must have forgotten that they were playing a game because no one showed up and only fell 28 points short of the over. The Vikings actually had a kicker make a game winning field goal to beat the Packers who look to be in trouble with Aaron Rogers somehow injuring his toe while he was quarantining. The Titans find a way to lose to the worst team in the NFL and now have to go up against the Patriots who had an extra four days to game plan for them. With Lamar Jackson out with an illness the Ravens still squeaked out a last second win over the bears but only by 3 points which was none too helpful for me. Since we are lucky enough to have three games on Thursday instead of doing my five picks for the week we will only focus on the three games being played.
Overall Record: 24-25-1
12:30 (EST) – Chicago Bears (-3.5) vs Detroit Lions:
Man what a terrible game to start off the holiday. The NFL couldn’t find a couple high school teams to fill the slot? Well it is the game they give us so let’s try and break this down. The Lions have scored 20 points twice, they have an 0-9-1 record, they are 4-3-2 ATS, and are 0-4 at home. The Bears have scored 20 points four times, they stand at 3-7, have a 3-4-2 record ATS, and are 1-4 on the road. I mean you couldn’t have picked a worse matchup to start the slate of games. A lot of people are expecting the Lions to pull out their first win this year on Thursday. 65% of bets have gone to Lions +3.5 and 88% of bets have gone on the Lions moneyline.
My Pick: Detroit Lions (+145)
4:30 (EST) – Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys (-7.5):
It seems that the Raiders have lost a step or two since their hot start. The Cowboys offense was silenced on Sunday by the Chiefs. The only stat fans need to look at for this game is the Cowboys record against the spread. They sit at 8-1-1 this season whereas the Raiders are 3-5 ATS. They are back at Jerry’s World for the game and I believe the crowd will be ampt up for this game and give Dallas the edge. Dak does need to watch out for Max Crosby who has been on a tear for the Raiders defense.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
8:20 (EST) – Buffalo Bills (-4) vs New Orleans Saints:
The Saints come into Thursday night’s game on a three game skid as they are at .500 on the season. The Bills are coming in pissed off as they got punched in the mouth against the Colts and couldn’t fight back after an ugly start to the game. Not only did they not fight back, they went from first in the AFC East and third in the AFC to second place behind the Patriots and dropped down to the seventh seed in the AFC. This game will test if they have that dog in them and can bounce back on a short week against a struggling team.
My Pick: New Orleans Saints (+4)
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