(*This article is written based on standard Non-PPR scoring)
It cannot be stressed enough how important the running back position is in fantasy football, it is the most important position on your roster and it is not particularly close. Drafting the wrong running back early in a draft can tank any chance you have at winning your league and leave you out of the playoff picture before you know it. Volume and opportunity are king in fantasy football, and these guys will not to see the field enough to make good on their current ADP
Miles Sanders
Sanders was a borderline first round pick in 2020 drafts and was very inconsistent while also battling a knee injury. In the 12 games in which Sanders was healthy he only touched the ball 13.7 times per game and over his career has only carried the ball 12.3 times per game. Sanders’ ADP is currently running back 17, 36th overall (ESPN.com). While Doug Pederson liked to spread the wealth amongst the Eagles backfield when he was the head honcho, the Eagles have a new coach in Nick Sirianni, and he should also employ some sort of running back by committee with the other capable backs in the backfield for Philadelphia, including Jordan Howard vulturing touchdowns. Sanders is a very solid player as he has averaged 4.9 yards per game in his first two seasons, but that does not discount the lack of volume he will see, leading to inconsistency, and that should continue to happen in year three in Philadelphia. At his current ADP I am staying away from Sanders, but if he falls into the fifth or sixth round I am willing to pull the trigger.
Josh Jacobs
The Raiders went out and signed former Dolphin and Cardinal, Kenyan Drake, to a two year, $11 million dollar contract this offseason. This move directly impacts the Raiders Josh Jacobs, the starter for the Raiders the last two seasons, in a major way. While Jacobs would probably be going somewhere in the late second or early third round of 10-team leagues without Drake sharing touches, he is only going a round later than that in what should be a running back by committee. Jacobs current ADP is running back 18, 37th overall. Jacobs was solid in his rookie season in 2019 finishing as running back 14. Last year Jacobs was a first round pick in most leagues and finished as running back 8, and that finish was influenced by his week 1 performance against Carolina where he scored 31.9 points. Jacobs had a lot of volume last season, touching the ball 20.4 times a game, but only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. The volume of touches that Jacobs will see in 2021 will decline a significant amount from his 2019 and 2020 numbers and the efficiency should be around the same with the Raiders weak offensive line. Las Vegas still has Jalen Richardas well, and he will come in on third down due to his pass catching ability. If Jacobs falls to the late fifth or early sixth round I might think about taking him to be a flex or top backup, but I would not want to go into week one with him as my RB1 or RB2.
Travis Etienne/James Robinson
The running back tandem of Etienne and Robinson is one that I will be avoiding in drafts. Robinson, the undrafted rookie last year, was running back seven despite missing two games. Robinson averaged 20.6 touches per game, ran for 1,070 yards, and scored 10 touchdowns. He was the definition of a workhorse. Unfortunately for both Robinson and fantasy players alike, that will not be the case in 2021 barring any injuries. Travis Etienne was selected by Jacksonville with the 25th overall pick in this year’s draft and any time a team takes a running back in the first round, they want to make him a big part of their offensive game plan every week. While Etienne comes in with more pedigree than Robinson did out of college, Robinson was so impressive last season when he was on the field that they will still want to get him the ball plenty. Etienne is being drafted highest of the two players 23 amongst running backs and 65th overall while Robinson is being drafted as running back 26 and 74th overall. This opinion has nothing to do with each player’s skill set, because both players are incredibly talented, I just expect them to split the workload 50/50, which is too early to bite in the seventh and eighth rounds. Jacksonville has what they believe to be the future of their franchise in Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, but the rest of this Jacksonville team is lousy. The Jaguars will throw the ball early and often to try and stay in games which means even less touches for both of these running backs. Maybe look at one of these guys in the ninth or tenth round because they have flex upside and if one gets hurt the other will be a top-15, possibly even top-10 guy, but in the seventh and eighth rounds it is not worth the price.
Opportunity is the biggest factor for success in fantasy football, touching the ball will lead to points and these guys will not touch the ball as much as other players going around the same time in drafts.
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